RIDGE GONE, big trough over east

[Steve H.]

From the HPC Today

BY DAY 7...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE
EARLY SEPTEMBER OVER THE INTERIOR AS FRESH SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN
FROM CANADA. THE MID ATL AND SOUTHEAST WILL BE WET...WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL FOCUSING JUST N OF POLAR FRONT DAYS 3 AND 4 FROM THE SRN
APPALACHIANS TO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. AIRMASS CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED S OF FRONT...WITH AN INCREASE IN RAIN OVER THE FL
PENINSULA BY DAY 7 AS TROPICAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHEAST.

Doesn't sound like curve out to sea from this. Too far out to make such a profound statement. You could make that case for just about every storm that emanates from the CV. Thing is, this wave is just that, a wave. If it was a TS then I might see it moving poleward and then getting curved out. Too early for that call on 92L.

[boca]

Steve H. good point this is still late July not November. If a trough or cold front came down to FL atleast let it cut the humidity in half and drop the temp to 80, now I'm in a fantasy world.

[cinlfla]

If a trough or cold front came down to FL atleast let it cut the humidity in half and drop the temp to 80

AMEN

[EDR1222]

According to the NWS Melbourne, if the NAO phase stays negative and strong, the storms could end up being early recurvers and not effect any portion of the east coast of the United States at least in the short term.

[Hurricaneman]

Interesting

[LarryWx]

A trough along the U.S. east coast normally will allow recurvature off of the east coast since winds ahead of it are normally SWerly. For the east coast to be most vulnerable to a storm riding up the coast, the trough would normally need to be a bit inland. For the SC, GA, and N FL areas to be most vulnerable to a direct hit from the E or SE, the trough would normally need to be well inland with ridging centered just offshore.

[EDR1222]

A trough along the U.S. east coast normally will allow recurvature off of the east coast since winds ahead of it are normally SWerly. For the east coast to be most vulnerable to a storm riding up the coast, the trough would normally need to be a bit inland.

This is what I was thinking. If it stays strong and pushes offshore, depending on how far south it gets, that would be a bit of good news for the east coast, for now anyway.

[Steve H.]

NWS Melbourne shows a lot of uncertainty concerning this upcoming week IMO:

SUN-WED...LOOKS AS THOUGH THE CWA WILL REMAIN ON THE PERIPHERY OF
THE WRN ATLC DLM RIDGE...WITH THE MEAN TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE
ERN CONUS INTO THE GULF STATES. A PIECE OF THIS TROUGH WILL BREAK
OFF AND RETROGRADE WWD TED THE WRN GOMEX...WHILE IT APPEARS THAT A
COUPLE NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL TRY TO INFUSE SOME
VORTICITY BACK INTO WHATEVER IS LEFTOVER. THE 12Z GFS LOOKS MORE
ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT THIS TAKING PLACE COMPARED TO THE 00Z ECM...
WHICH SHOWS WEAK RIDGING HOLDING SWAY N-NW OF FL. LOOKING ONCE MORE
INTO THE TROPICS...W/R/T THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE E/SE
...THE 12Z GFS SLOWS IT TO A CRAWL AS IT PASSES THE TURKS/CAICOS BY
00Z MON (SUN EVENING)...DRIFTS IT W/NW INTO CTRL BAHAMAS A FULL H48
LATER...THEN SHOWS A STALL/TREND TWD RECURVATURE WED. LAST NIGHTS
00Z ECM DROVE THE FEATURE WWD THROUGH THE FL STRAITS AND INTO THE
GOMEX...OWING TO ITS AFOREMENTIONED HIGHER MID LEVEL HEIGHTS NORTH
OF FL AS COMPARED TO THE GFS.

SEEING HOW THE STATE IS BRACKETED BY GUIDANCE DEPICTIONS OF THIS
FEATURE...REALLY CANNOT DO MORE THAN HEDGE TWD CLIMO POPS...SINCE
THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLNS WOULD RESULT IN DISPARATE WX CONDS FOR ECFL.

[Astro_man92]

LOL. But that's the initial. You have to advance it to 120 hours. There's a big low in the NE but the ridging stretches from Germany to Missouri.





Steve

where is the ridge i don't see it???????????

[Hurricaneman]

I see a trough

[Opal storm]

I just herd Steve Lyons on the weather channel say the same thing.. "

The ridge is backing off and a trough is moving in and this will open a pathe for the east coast.. From Florida up the east coast for the next two systems in the Atlantic."

Will be our turn now...

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

I just saw him on TWC,he basically said that the Gulf was out of the question for both 92 and 93 and that they would instead hit the east coast.

Although I agree,I'm suprised he's gone out on such a limb to say that when both systems are so far out.He's done a great job in the past so he's probably right,we'll see.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Spagetti Plots Favor Recurvature: Note the one plot that wants to bring system across Florida seems to be an anomaly...

http://www.ourgallagherfamily.com/storm ... L/93L.html

http://www.ourgallagherfamily.com/storm ... L/92L.html

[cinlfla]

I just saw him on TWC,he basically said that the Gulf was out of the question for both 92 and 93 and that they would instead hit the east coast.

Although I agree,I'm suprised he's gone out on such a limb to say that when both systems are so far out.He's done a great job in the past so he's probably right,we'll see

I would not let my eyes off etiher one until you knew for sure they were not going into the Gulf. Anything is possible

[deltadog03]

Ok, first of all....most if not ALL of these models are GFS based.....what every the GFS does then those follow at least somewhere close by....The GFS will flip and flop 1000000 times.....the ridge is there and you can clearly see it...from the atlantic to the SE.....there is a trof..however its up near the great lakes and pushing out...I do respect Dr. Lyons, but I feel he is going WAAAAY out on a limb....I hope it dosn't bite him....I really don't see curvers...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

so it will be the wait and see....we'll have to see how the trough and the ridge are doing each day....

[huricanwatcher]

120 hour UKMET may send everything right into Hatteras as thats where the weakness in the high is

[Hurricaneman]

120 hour UKMET may send everything right into Hatteras as thats where the weakness in the high is

Going to keep my eye out

[Patrick99]

I don't think the trough will remain there and be there 7-9 days from now......way too early to say "no Gulf," IMO.

[Patrick99]

Oh, and another thing, these waves are not developing fast. If they wait until they approach the islands to develop into anything.....

[wxmann_91]

Spagetti Plots Favor Recurvature: Note the one plot that wants to bring system across Florida seems to be an anomaly...

http://www.ourgallagherfamily.com/storm ... L/93L.html

http://www.ourgallagherfamily.com/storm ... L/92L.html

That one plot is an extrapolation line, not a model. (don't worry I didn't know that until just a few weeks ago, before I kept thinking the XTRAP was a stupid model that always was the outlier )

LOL. But that's the initial. You have to advance it to 120 hours. There's a big low in the NE but the ridging stretches from Germany to Missouri.





Steve

where is the ridge i don't see it???????????

The reds and oranges are areas of higher pressure, signaling the presence of a ridge.