INVEST 96L

[wxman57]

Here's a nice McIdas image of 96L. Can't see an LLC too well in the still image, but it certainly looks "healthy":

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/jose2.gif

[gatorcane]

This must be Jose that the GFS was picking up early this week where it had it moving into SE Florida. We'll need to watch this one as it should be a low tracker possibly a GOM or N. Caribbean threat.

[Anonymous]

Here's a nice McIdas image of 96L. Can't see an LLC too well in the still image, but it certainly looks "healthy":

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/jose2.gif

[gatorcane]

could be, great graphic

[micktooth]

I wouldn't rely too much on disparities right now. As with previous storms, until a definite center is established, the s will be all over the place. Let's wait a while and then we'll see what will happen.

[Trader Ron]

I agree. SHIPS is being way too bullish on this system. Given the dry air around it, I wouldn't expect a TD to form for a couple days unless the dry air retreats sooner.

It seems SHIPS is Bullish on every named storm.

[sma10]

Here's a nice McIdas image of 96L. Can't see an LLC too well in the still image, but it certainly looks "healthy":

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/jose2.gif

I like that position, too. At least, that's the way it appears on visable loop. Models were initialized in a different area though.

[gatorcane]

I like that position, too. At least, that's the way it appears on visable loop. Models were initialized in a different area though

Can you post some graphics with what these models are doing with it?

[SkeetoBite]

Can you post some graphics with what these models are doing with it?

Models (from one page up):

[EDR1222]

It looks like a possible weakness left behind by Irene could have an effect on the path. It appears far enough south, IMO, to avoid the weakness and head more westward.

It will be interesting to see the 18z model runs on later today.

[SouthFloridawx]

BTW yes i see the spin also... I see it in the area where you are mentioning...

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 121517
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM IRENE...LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA
AND ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS FORMED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA



TD in a day or two.

[vacanechaser]

Look at the area of favorable MJO moving into the Atlantic and the area over 96L... Looks like the start is on the way...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Rieyeuxs]

I'll be brave and ask what to some what may be a stupid question. I can get numbers for invests, but I haven't been able to find a good link to graphic model runs on invests. Once it TD's I have several sites, but anybody have a link to graphic invest models?

*hint* Skeetobite, I saw you posted one. Where from please?

Sorry for playing the stupid newbie... *slinks back off to lurkdome*

[Coredesat]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots.html

"storm_50" is a test plot.

[clfenwi]

I'll be brave and ask what to some what may be a stupid question. I can get numbers for invests, but I haven't been able to find a good link to graphic model runs on invests. Once it TD's I have several sites, but anybody have a link to graphic invest models?

*hint* Skeetobite, I saw you posted one. Where from please?

Sorry for playing the stupid newbie... *slinks back off to lurkdome*

http://sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_96.gif

Archive for the CSU website indicates that they post plots for invests as well: http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... tic/store/

[SkeetoBite]

I'll be brave and ask what to some what may be a stupid question. I can get numbers for invests, but I haven't been able to find a good link to graphic model runs on invests. Once it TD's I have several sites, but anybody have a link to graphic invest models?

*hint* Skeetobite, I saw you posted one. Where from please?

Sorry for playing the stupid newbie... *slinks back off to lurkdome*

Never be afraid to ask a question. In my experience here, the vast majority of the Storm2k users will be eager to assist you.

These are our own maps. They are automated. Our system captures the NHC model data automatically and renders the maps. From time to time there may be a delay due to the "throttle" we have put the maps during testing so we can audit them prior to the launch of the new site.

Click to visit SkeetobiteWeather.com

[vacanechaser]

Look at the area of favorable MJO moving into the Atlantic and the area over 96L... Looks like the start is on the way...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

OOOpppsss.. forgot this



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Coredesat]

I agree. SHIPS is being way too bullish on this system. Given the dry air around it, I wouldn't expect a TD to form for a couple days unless the dry air retreats sooner.

It seems SHIPS is Bullish on every named storm.

True. I'll give you that much.

Although as quickly as 96L's organizing, it may not be far off on this one.

[cycloneye]

Not to take away the focus from Irene but I think that our main attention must be 96L as it will be a possible threat to some of the islands.