Irene on her western jog thread

[Jim Hughes]

I don't see that, in fact, it appears (per the NHC TWD), that Irene will move northwestward then northward between the two highs, and them move northeastward when it approaches the strong westerlies.

Frank

There is a tendency for the Bermuda high to go through changes when a IMF sector boundary occurs. This will cause the IMF field strength to become stronger etc...

This sector change will probably occur by Sunday or Monday at the latest. The Wang-Sheely Model shows this upcoming change. (2nd graph...polarity )

http://sec.noaa.gov/ws/

Wilcox, Roberts and many others have found different atmospheric relationships with sector changes. Their findings dealt more with the VAI and changes with the Aleutian Low.... But this was also some 30-40 years ago.

So it would not surprise me if the ridge weakened or even shifted around this time frame. This may be what some of the models are picking up and it does not currently make sense to some. Just a thought.

Jim

[Petmom]

the more jogs you have to the west is not good for the coast. And I don't see her slowing up either.

I think that she may come very close, but not come ashore. At least that is what I am hoping for. Our local news is keeping an eye on it..............

[dwg71]

the more jogs you have to the west is not good for the coast. And I don't see her slowing up either.

I think that she may come very close, but not come ashore. At least that is what I am hoping for. Our local news is keeping an eye on it..............

Its not moving West the center is to the NE of convection. Wait for advisory it will verify.

[hurricanefloyd5]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html

[Petmom]

the more jogs you have to the west is not good for the coast. And I don't see her slowing up either.

I think that she may come very close, but not come ashore. At least that is what I am hoping for. Our local news is keeping an eye on it..............

Its not moving West the center is to the NE of convection. Wait for advisory it will verify.

When I look at this, look scary to me..............I went over to the hurricane center, but no 11 am advisory yet.............

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html


I just saw the 11 am advisory now.................sorry

[fci]

Actually, this is the correct steering map...the one at the top of the thread is for a more powerful storm:



This map makes it alot less obvious that this will be a fish. Note that the highs to east and west are connecting and "filling in"...this could potentially block the storm from zipping off the north or northeast.

Great depiction to me of how and why this will end up a fish.
Thanks Rocky!

[dwg71]

the more jogs you have to the west is not good for the coast. And I don't see her slowing up either.

I think that she may come very close, but not come ashore. At least that is what I am hoping for. Our local news is keeping an eye on it..............

Its not moving West the center is to the NE of convection. Wait for advisory it will verify.

When I look at this, look scary to me..............I went over to the hurricane center, but no 11 am advisory yet.............

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html

Its there now, .7N to 1.4W since last advisory. Thats WNW 292.5* heading.

[Brent]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200509_5day.html

Near miss for North Carolina and the Mid-Atlantic. Florida... next.

[Nimbus]

The 11 AM NHC advisory mentioned Irene moving into weak steering currents.
Anybody see that ULL to the south of Irene affecting the steering?
Should the ULL be discounted even though there appear to be no other steering currents between the two ridges?