Katrina Strengthening

wzrgirl1 · #21 Postby **wzrgirl1** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 4:33 pm

not really nervous but more anxious to see what will happen

#22 Postby **deltadog03** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 4:40 pm

im still not sure we won't see any development....if we do it still pretty much push into the gulf via the FL straits...imo...

Thunder44 · #23 Postby **Thunder44** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 4:40 pm

boca_chris wrote:We have a wave north of Puerto Rico (ex TD 10) that is getting better organized today and moving into a more favorable climate with extreme high SSTs and a ridge holding strong to the north...and its late August

All I have to say is:

It's not reallly getting better organized. The convection that is firing up closer to the vigourous MLC NE of Puerto Rico. The LLC farther to the west of all that convection. I do agree thought that it needs to be watched as it gets further west. It's not dead and some have proclaimed to be.

#24 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 4:43 pm

this thing just wont give up at all.

<RICKY>

gkrangers · #25 Postby **gkrangers** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 4:47 pm

Whoever is on the western periphery of the subtropical ridge should be concerned...if it does develop, it wouldn't be for atleast a few more days..and should be forced into the GOM.

It just doesn't want to give up. Maybe its kept itself weak in order to bypass the weakness and wreak havoc in the GOM? Pensacola hasn't been hit in what..a month?

#26 Postby **Ivanhater** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 4:49 pm

gkrangers wrote:Whoever is on the western periphery of the subtropical ridge should be concerned...if it does develop, it wouldn't be for atleast a few more days..and should be forced into the GOM.

It just doesn't want to give up. Maybe its kept itself weak in order to bypass the weakness and wreak havoc in the GOM? Pensacola hasn't been hit in what..a month?

haaaaaa, ya its been unusually quiet for a while :wink:

#27 Postby **Deenac813** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 4:50 pm

I had a bad feeling about ex TD10 from the beginning. I wish it would just GO AWAY! :grrr:

#28 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 4:59 pm

some decent convection is starting to blow up....

BRADGPSL-FL · #29 Postby **BRADGPSL-FL** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:00 pm

i cant get nervous everytime a storm comes close to florida. you can just wait and see. And even if it starts to move away you have to keep watching after what happened last year with Jeanne. The local mets told us that we had nothing to worry about then we woke up in the morning hearing "hope you didnt take your shutters down"

gkrangers · #30 Postby **gkrangers** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:00 pm

This is the 12z ECMWF.

It appears to agree with me regarding the GOM...note the low pressure over extreme South Florida.

Now..you'll notice the ridge developing westward..eventually centered over OK/TX/AR/LA. I'm also assuming that is 10L in the central GOM. Not positive, but it does look like the ECMWF carries an area of low pressure westward between days 4 and 7.

So just to say..we may be focusing on the GOM soon.

And if my interpretation is incorrect, I'd appreciate corrections.

Scorpion · #31 Postby **Scorpion** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:01 pm

Lets face it, first of all this thing will likely stay weak and pathetic and pass to the south of Florida. Second it shouldn't form into anything significant even in the GOM. Lets turn our attention to the mammoth wave that emerged off Africa.

BRADGPSL-FL · #32 Postby **BRADGPSL-FL** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:03 pm

what direction is it currently moving? i dont see it heading for the gulf

#33 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:04 pm

I am keeping an eye out on it Im not gonna lie about that. But Im not getting concerned at all until it forms into a TD or more.

<RICKY>

#34 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:05 pm

looks to have a very nice rotation as well....with the convection blowing up what appears to be the west side of it....very interesting :eek:

#35 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:06 pm

it may be mid-level circulation still but when it drops to the surface (and it will) things will get interesting really quick.

#36 Postby **jlauderdal** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:08 pm

boca_chris wrote:We have a wave north of Puerto Rico (ex TD 10) that is getting better organized today and moving into a more favorable climate with extreme high SSTs and a ridge holding strong to the north...and its late August

All I have to say is:

nervous factor now-2%
predicted nervous factor in 5 days-2%

BRADGPSL-FL · #37 Postby **BRADGPSL-FL** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:08 pm

can anyone give me a link for the wv satellite picture. very much appreciated. thanks.

#38 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:12 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html

BRADGPSL-FL · #39 Postby **BRADGPSL-FL** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:19 pm

is it moving wnw?

#40 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:36 pm

this is some of the best looking convection we have seen with this thing......and it doesn't look like there is alot of shear to stop it:

Katrina Strengthening

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