A little model fun with the Canadian (CMC) out to 144 hours

[Stormsfury]

Yea I just figure as long as we have thrown all the rules about storm development out the window. We might as well have one form in South America and threaten CONUS.

It's 2003 ... wouldn't that figure? ... *LOL*

[Steve]

Yeah, it's likely a surge of tropical moisture. But then again, that wave was little to nothing when it picked up on it, and it blossomed while it interacted with an upper trof the last couple of days. The solution was different this morning. It favored a 1008 or 1009 mb low off the SE Coast, but that might be from the ULL rather than TD #2. However, it still brought a low into the Gulf between Cuba and the Yucatan and lowered it to about 1007. It mulled it around there a few days then sent it a little further south than the run from the night before. It was around Cedar Key this time. What was weird was that it developed and lost it a couple of times in that 41 frame run.

What we have to determine is if it is seeing things the other models aren't. Whether it's moisture, early tropical development, or whatever, it's onto something.

Steve

[Stormsfury]

The possibility is now upon us that the Canadian model was onto something after all ... let's see how this plays out ...

[Rainband]

the big question remains when and where the tropical wave/TUTT
feature...sliding northwest out of the Caribbean on Monday and meandering over
the southeast Gulf through middle week before getting ejected to the NE/east by
approaching 500 mb trough. As expected...models are agreeing with
the trend...but run-to-run consistency in timing is poor.
Certainly...we'll have to continue to monitor this system as it's
location and climatology this time of year are favorable.

That was from my discussion this afternoon!!!!!!