Yet another west shift in the latest models

[KYAGoodbye]

Bayou Venteaux said:
"I'd venture to guess that by Sunday evening we'll have a much clearer and more stable run-to-run model consensus developing."

Bayou, I agree with you, but the problem is that by the time Sunday evening rolls around it's way too late to evacuate the New Orleans soup bowl. In fact, I have reservations in Lafayette and Jackson for tomorrow, and have no idea where we will go. But I will decide in the morning and get outta dodge hopefully befdore the 9 hour traffic jams begin. Either way, we will be out of the bowl, although I would like to avoid the wind, too. What is the buzz in Ascension? Are folks worried? Leaving? Boarding? NO is basically sort of oblivious, IMO.

[Opal storm]

I just saw on TWC it looks like it took another dive towards the south.

I bet Pensacola will barely be in the 11pm track,that's good

[Wthrman13]

As we all know from Isidore in 2002, a storm being forced SW can stall and turn north on a dime (without any model predicting such). No one is safe on the Gulf Coast.

StormWarning is right, the models in general did predict that stall (even the southward jog) and the subsequent north turn days in advance.

Not quite. When Isidore was at the longitude that Katrina is currently, this is what they had predicted:

INITIAL 20/0300Z 21.0N 82.5W 75 KTS
12HR VT 20/1200Z 21.7N 83.5W 85 KTS
24HR VT 21/0000Z 22.5N 84.5W 95 KTS
36HR VT 21/1200Z 23.0N 85.5W 100 KTS
48HR VT 22/0000Z 23.5N 86.5W 105 KTS
72HR VT 23/0000Z 24.0N 87.0W 105 KTS


No south jog at all forecasted there.

I'm assuming that's the NHC's official forecast. I was referring to the dynamical forecast models...

[feederband]

At this rate the Yucatan might need to start worring...

[Opal storm]

At this rate the Yucatan might need to start worring...

That would be crazy if it does hit the Yucatan.I'm not bashing the NHC,but I think this storm is really throwing them off as it is with all of us.

[Kennethb]

We'll know more for sure when we see where Cantore and others show up. Probably on a flight down to the Gulf Coast now.

[Stormcenter]

At this rate the Yucatan might need to start worring...

Katrina make continue WSW and never turn north again. That would be good for the U.S. but not for Mexico.

[hicksta]

That would be a amazing cane if it did that

[jasons2k]

Radar fixes in my grlevel3 thread indicate a continued WSW movement at this time

[Frank P]

the great state of Mississippi, especially the contingency along the MS gulf coast, casts its 6 electoral votes for Katrina to go to the Yucatan.... just don't think that is going to happen

[webke]

Dr. Lyons on the TWC just said that all residents on the Gulf coast should keep an eye on Katrina as the cone may move to the right or the left. He also mentioned that the NHC released more balloons than normal trying to figure out what Katrina might do.

[T-man]

I too, live in southeast LA below New Orleans. I won't make a decision to board up until some northward component takes place, which I hope occurs sometime tonight or early next am.....

I may even leave if it looks like it is gonna come at us from the southwest

[greeng13]

We'll know more for sure when we see where Cantore and others show up. Probably on a flight down to the Gulf Coast now.

that was a ggod one! he usually tries to be where the action is but i think stephanie gets it (at least last year). should we re-initiate the poll of the hottest weather reporter man or woman from last year?

let me edit that one before the bashing starts...i meant stephanie seems to experience more intense hurricane activity than her TWC counterparts