Thank God

[steveklein]

NOLA has had winds over 71 knots for several hours now. Rain is estimated at 5-10 inches in several spots. I think to say they are only having Cat. 1 effects is a bit much if not a total load of crap.

sustained winds of 90-95 mph is a category 1.

i haven't even heard new orleans reporting a *GUST* of 90mph. infact, i haven't even seen a gust over 80 in new orleans. there may have been one... but i haven't seen it.

The hurricane was not over the city when that occurred. It has been getting over 71 knot winds for several hours now with the worst yet to come. There haven't been any reports because there is not only no one there to give the reports, but the power is out in some of the city, and the worst of the winds are not there. This storm just made landfall, there is zero way to predict or ascertain the damage level of New Orleans at this time.

there are tens of thousands of people in new orleans. yes, power is out. and yes, i know just because it hasn't been reported doesn't mean it hasn't been experienced somewhere. what does 71 knots translate to in mph? like 78 or 79? something in there anyways. where have you seen these reports. i know the winds haven't been sustained this high in new orleans for very long... because we'd have been seeing gusts to 100mph for hours. it's just not happening.

and when we do get gusts to 100mph, i'll say "yep... cat 1 effects"

didn't ft. lauderdale get a gust of 95 mph in a 75 mph storm? that's what i'm expecting in new orleans. winds won't be a big deal there. the surge might still present some problems but they won't see a 20-25 foot surge... probably half that. could still cause problems, but i am under the impression it can hold a 17 foot surge.

[GalvestonDuck]

Steve, until Katrina's eye passes over NO, please don't downplay what this storm is doing. It hasn't reached NO yet and so they have yet to feel what she truly has to offer.

[oneness]

NOLA has had winds over 71 knots for several hours now. Rain is estimated at 5-10 inches in several spots. I think to say they are only having Cat. 1 effects is a bit much if not a total load of crap.

sustained winds of 90-95 mph is a category 1.

i haven't even heard new orleans reporting a *GUST* of 90mph. infact, i haven't even seen a gust over 80 in new orleans. there may have been one... but i haven't seen it.

Associated press reported a 90 mph gust in downtown NO about 2 hours ago in a feeder band.

[pr2000gt]

NOLA has had winds over 71 knots for several hours now. Rain is estimated at 5-10 inches in several spots. I think to say they are only having Cat. 1 effects is a bit much if not a total load of crap.

sustained winds of 90-95 mph is a category 1.

i haven't even heard new orleans reporting a *GUST* of 90mph. infact, i haven't even seen a gust over 80 in new orleans. there may have been one... but i haven't seen it.

The hurricane was not over the city when that occurred. It has been getting over 71 knot winds for several hours now with the worst yet to come. There haven't been any reports because there is not only no one there to give the reports, but the power is out in some of the city, and the worst of the winds are not there. This storm just made landfall, there is zero way to predict or ascertain the damage level of New Orleans at this time.

there are tens of thousands of people in new orleans. yes, power is out. and yes, i know just because it hasn't been reported doesn't mean it hasn't been experienced somewhere. what does 71 knots translate to in mph? like 78 or 79? something in there anyways. where have you seen these reports. i know the winds haven't been sustained this high in new orleans for very long... because we'd have been seeing gusts to 100mph for hours. it's just not happening.

and when we do get gusts to 100mph, i'll say "yep... cat 1 effects"

didn't ft. lauderdale get a gust of 95 mph in a 75 mph storm? that's what i'm expecting in new orleans. winds won't be a big deal there. the surge might still present some problems but they won't see a 20-25 foot surge... probably half that. could still cause problems, but i am under the impression it can hold a 17 foot surge.

Velocity data. Yes, not 100% accurate since it is a beam in the air, but for several hours the entire NOLA area has had 71+ knot mph winds according to velocity. I'm sure that cuts down some at the surface, but GRLevelX doesn't estimate over 71, so it could be higher. 71 knots is about 81 miles per hour, so you could have easily of had sustained and or gusts over 80 even taking account for the beam being in the air, because it was at LEAST 71 knots according to radar at that elevation.

The hurricane is still a ways away from NOLA, how can you say they are only going to see Cat 1 effects when the brunt of the storm is not even there?!?!?

[Mello1]

did you miss the part where it said "TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL"

surge in New Orleans will probably be on the order of 12 feet... not enough to top the levees... at least not in a catastrophic manner.

Assuming the levees hold to the east. The western eye edge will still hit it at high Cat 3/4 range. The levees have been designed for Cat 3, if that. Pontatrain will fill up from the lake to the east and it can still spill over. Yes, NO has dodged a big bullet as the eye will pass to the east of the city. But NO will flood and they will have major damage, especially in the south and east parishes. It's not the gloom and doom sceanero, but it's also not going to be a walk in the park. Especially since the storm is still south of these areas and they hours to go thru before the all clear. Further, instead of writing with a smug attitude, you may want to just state your points and move off of it, really.

[steveklein]

NOLA has had winds over 71 knots for several hours now. Rain is estimated at 5-10 inches in several spots. I think to say they are only having Cat. 1 effects is a bit much if not a total load of crap.

sustained winds of 90-95 mph is a category 1.

i haven't even heard new orleans reporting a *GUST* of 90mph. infact, i haven't even seen a gust over 80 in new orleans. there may have been one... but i haven't seen it.

Associated press reported a 90 mph gust in downtown NO about 2 hours ago in a feeder band.

good to know. thanks. and galvestonduck: my whole point is that the eye isn't passing over NOLA. but fine, i won't forecast any more in fear of being correct. we all know where i stand, so we will just see what new orleans looks like this afternoon.

[Tri-State_1925]

Haters will continue to hate. Remember there were also people saying that they weren't seeing any reports of strong winds from Ivan and that it wasn't going to cause much damage. Please...

[Brent]

85 mph at the Lakefront from the 6am advisory...

Not that it matters... New Orleans will "be fine".

This is hardly Dennis... the west side is still VERY impressive. Yes, not perfect, but impressive.