wxmann_91 wrote:Because of the extremely weak subtropical ridge, a CV storm developing further east would be better news than a weak tropical wave/depression sneaking beneath the ridge and becoming a homegrown.
The best example was Jeanne last year as it started as a wimpy wave moving thru the atlantic and when it came close to the leewards then boom it organized quickly.
Hyperstorm yes that infamous Georges was born at that date and we know the rest.But makes me wonder as you said that big trough digging way down if that part of the world is shut down already or as you said maybe by mid to late september we may see a more normal pattern.As always let's wait and see what transpires.
And Hyperstorm now read the 8 Am discussion about what we are talking about here.
A RATHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH
IS DIGGING INTO THE AREA FROM A LOW NEAR 35N27W WITH A TROUGH SW
TO 22N37W. AN EARLY-SEASON COLD FRONT IS INTO THE AREA ALONG
31N28W TO 27N36W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS LIE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITHIN 60 NM. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH THERE IS ANOTHER
TROUGH... RUNNING FROM 24N23W TO 17N30W.. MUCH FARTHER S THAN
AVERAGE FOR EARLY SEPT. THIS IS PROBABLY WHY ALL THE TROPICAL
SYSTEMS IN THE DEEP TROPICS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. TYPICAL UPPER RIDGING IS SPLIT INTO TWO PARTS OVER
THE DEEP TROPICS... ONE HIGH NEAR 18N47W WITH ANOTHER OVER W
AFRICA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS VERY WEAK OVER THE DEEP
TROPICS EXCEPT NEAR MARIA... LEAVING LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY
CALM SEAS.
And by the way finnally they now say 92L is a wave in the discussions.
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