TD16 Trapped? Betsy/Jeanne-like Scenario in the GFS?

[gatorcane]

I'll play the odds here w/o scientific data! A hurricane landfall is extremely rare north of Melbourne through Georgia! I'll bet she ends up out to sea, in the Carolina's, or loops around and heads back towards SFL! I'm not buying the NE FL track! Im all in!

100% agree. Hurricanes very rarely hit NE FL and coastal Georgia and it appears that this is going to happen here.

[mvtrucking]

GFDL.. once again with the 0Z run brings 16 West across Florida into the Gulf. It will be interesting to see the 0Z run of the EURO.

Scroll to the bottom of the page at link below for T.D. 16

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/05090705

At 126 hrs just east of the mouth of the mississippi? That will probably change, but still a bad scene if it came to pass. ECWMF has the same thing. Are they similar models?
http://meteocentre.com/animate.php?lang ... 00Z%20ANIM

[sponger]

Just to be clear, recent hurricane hits into NE Florida and GA are rare. However history has shown that prior to 1900, alot of action was seen in this area. Records dating back to the late 1500's made NE florida seem like Cape Hatteras.

[no advance]

Lets get this girl inland before it is unmanagable. 8am pressure is 1003

[cjrciadt]

Lets get this girl inland before it is unmanagable. 8am pressure is 1003

I agree, but the forecast track keeps it off the coast till Mon. if does not become at least a Cat1 I will be very surprised. The avila leaves Cat3 by Sun a slim possiblity.

[Windtalker1]

I'll play the odds here w/o scientific data! A hurricane landfall is extremely rare north of Melbourne through Georgia! I'll bet she ends up out to sea, in the Carolina's, or loops around and heads back towards SFL! I'm not buying the NE FL track! Im all in!

I agree....everyone is predicting a central or North Florida land fall. With the high building in and forcing Ophelia more South, we very well may see a South Florida Landfall before going across and back into the Gulf.

[jdray]

I'll play the odds here w/o scientific data! A hurricane landfall is extremely rare north of Melbourne through Georgia! I'll bet she ends up out to sea, in the Carolina's, or loops around and heads back towards SFL! I'm not buying the NE FL track! Im all in!

If you read this: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/history/index.html

you will see that NE Fla gets its fair share of storms.

[sponger]

Thanks Jdray for finding the link.

[jdray]

No problem.

Everyone seems to think that NE Fl and the GA coast are immune from hurricanes. Its quite a read.

[Amanzi]

Thanks for finding that. I remebered reading Landseas article a while back. It really is some food for thought.

[no advance]

Central Fl. gets alot of storms too. Just not majors. I dont have the links but I have done alot of reading about this subject. Unfornately she is looking more formidable.

[cjrciadt]

Central Fl. gets alot of storms too. Just not majors. I dont have the links but I have done alot of reading about this subject. Unfornately she is looking more formidable.

Erin in 95 was our last cane before 2004, however we missed big ones like Floyd.

[fci]

I'll play the odds here w/o scientific data! A hurricane landfall is extremely rare north of Melbourne through Georgia! I'll bet she ends up out to sea, in the Carolina's, or loops around and heads back towards SFL! I'm not buying the NE FL track! Im all in!

100% agree. Hurricanes very rarely hit NE FL and coastal Georgia and it appears that this is going to happen here.

I COMPLETELY agree.
Have watched for TOO many years and I'd bet on an eventual out to sea scenario and certainly not a NE FL, Ga hit. Even stretch it to the Carolinas before NE FL and Ga
(OF course given my INCORRECT assumptions these past two "strange" years; my prediction now bodes badly for NE FL and Ga )

[HurricaneGirl]

If for some reason they say it's coming to Jacksonville and we're in the cone, the track will always move the next day. We are extremely lucky. One day our luck will run out though.

[NastyCat4]

It isn't hitting J'ville---it will go out to sea, and isn't pulling a Jeanne loop.

[fci]

It isn't hitting J'ville---it will go out to sea, and isn't pulling a Jeanne loop.

As much as I agree, I would not just post a simple, definitive statement like you have without some justification.

Say it's a hunch, opinion or something but not just a flat out statement.

Just my opinion....

[Deb321]

It isn't hitting J'ville---it will go out to sea, and isn't pulling a Jeanne loop.

Still learning here so any info I find very helpful. What are you seeing that makes you think 1) it won't hit JAX 2) it won't do a loop like Jeanne last year.

[boca]

Isn't the high pressure that will supposeably steer big O south then west 4 days out still so alot can happen and if it could get to 32 degrees latitude maybe it won't get tugged that much to the west and hopefully get pulled out to sea.

[no advance]

multiple centers? intensifying or is it leveling off. We will see at 11

[boca]

My prevouis post to get to 32 degrees north is more of a wish so it will be north of the ravaged Gulf coast.