Potential for 95L...Significant system or dud?

[Anonymous]

IMO...take this huge hurricane, and put the center off the Southeast Jamaican coast:::

[wxmann_91]

HOLY CRAP!!!

The CMC had the same 980 mb low to the south of the FL panhandle before Katrina formed.

[Anonymous]

It's continued organizing overnight::::

[southerngreen]

so we're talking how many days away???

[Anonymous]

Still about 3 days or so away from the islands.

[southerngreen]

sounds like FEMA the red cross & everyone else is gonna be stretched kinda thin if this thing rolls in.

i remember last year passing all the emergency people & utility trucks pulling out just before "the next one" hit. i can't remember which ones it was between jeanne & ivan i think. (it's all a blur now) and katrina is a much larger job than either of those - is there anyone left to take care of another group of homeless people?

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picser ... p?t=m&m=95

lets just think happy thoughts and hope it spins itself out harmlessly

[jlauderdal]

sounds like FEMA the red cross & everyone else is gonna be stretched kinda thin if this thing rolls in.

i remember last year passing all the emergency people & utility trucks pulling out just before "the next one" hit. i can't remember which ones it was between jeanne & ivan i think. (it's all a blur now) and katrina is a much larger job than either of those - is there anyone left to take care of another group of homeless people?

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picser ... p?t=m&m=95

lets just think happy thoughts and hope it spins itself out harmlessly

there are plenty of supplies and troops and all that available in the country but if they aren;t deployed as in Katrina it doesn't matter. fortunately we have a free and aggresive media in this country or there would still be people at the superdome, bush would be in crawford telling brown he is doing a good job, nagin and blanco would be on two different pages and the troops would be in the barracks. pick up time magazine this week for an intersting investigative report. i am upping my hurricane kit from 5 days to seven days after this fiasco.

[johngaltfla]

Argh. What's wrong with just simply using the name "mcgdogm"? They had to make it tough on us, didn't they.

Oh well. It'll get us one step closer to Alpha, so I'm not complaining.

Well, they use names of those nationalities affected by tropical cyclones in the Atlantic... to be fair. Philippe is a French name representing the island nations in the Caribbean who are primarily French.

Then next year if it's projected to be just as active, they should use names after jam and peanut butter flavors.

Because we'll be toast.

My concern is after 95L. If the MJO sets up, are we going to see a sudden surge of development in the SW Caribbean in October? If so, Florida is in deep trouble.

[skysummit]

Argh. What's wrong with just simply using the name "mcgdogm"? They had to make it tough on us, didn't they.

Oh well. It'll get us one step closer to Alpha, so I'm not complaining.

Well, they use names of those nationalities affected by tropical cyclones in the Atlantic... to be fair. Philippe is a French name representing the island nations in the Caribbean who are primarily French.

Then next year if it's projected to be just as active, they should use names after jam and peanut butter flavors.

Because we'll be toast.

My concern is after 95L. If the MJO sets up, are we going to see a sudden surge of development in the SW Caribbean in October? If so, Florida is in deep trouble.

I believe the entire gulf coast would be in deep trouble.

[HurricaneGirl]

Holy Crap!

[O Town]

She is still looking good this morning and still moving westward keeping low. I have a gut feeling on this one that it is going to grow into a monster. ugggggg. Tracking this things is a love/hate relationship. I love to watch them develope, but we all know what we hate. /

[Frank2]

Re: HurricaneGirl's "post"

Perhaps we can give you a thesaurus for your birthday (do you ever say anything else?)...

[Frank2]

Re: southerngreen's post

And this is not taking additional acts of terrorism into consideration...

Time to pray...

[Andrew92]

Re: HurricaneGirl's "post"

Perhaps we can give you a thesaurus for your birthday (do you ever say anything else?)...

But that's what makes her fun! HurricaneGirl, keep up those posts, without you, this board wouldn't seems as zesty; we all like you here. (j/k Frank, but still...)

In any event, 95L doesn't look great this morning, but it has potential for development down the road still. Not ready to say it will become Philippe, but I won't be at all surprised if it does in a few days.

-Andrew92

[Frank2]

She's an old acquaintance from the TWC boards, and she used to "say" the same thing there - again and again and again!!

Use that mind to let us know what you think about the weather!

Frank

[Anonymous]

In any event, 95L doesn't look great this morning

Well...its not a Cat 5 Hurricane, but it certainly has stayed impressive all night.

[FlSteel]

Great looking no, but that is only in if you are comparing it to a full fledge developed tropical cyclone. For an invest this thing is looking pretty good. Convection is still maintaining, although scattered. I wouldn't turn my back on this one.

[Andrew92]

Don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to downplay the system. I'm being a little conservative with this invest however, since other CV waves have fallen apart this season. I just don't want to hype something up and see it be a dud, as that has happened several times this year.

If I really let myself out, I would call for this to be a hurricane, possibly major. Could it become one, of course it could.

Not a knock at you Mike, just my very conservative opinion.

-Andrew92

[Blown Away]

Amateur Prediction: Being it's mid September, climatolgy says it won't make it across the Caribbean to the Gulf. If this develops it will have potential to be a FL or Carolina player. Odds are recurvature before CONUS landfall. Unfortunatley it will likely crash into Dom/Haiti or Cuba on its way poleward, hopefully not as a significant storm. Based on discussion I've been reading from the expert's, it seems the conditions are good for development. The low latitude location, the models so far, and potential for significant development kind of reminds me of David.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[skysummit]

With this season, I think we can throw climatological history out the window.