Tammy

no advance · #21 Postby **no advance** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 6:09 am

No problem for us. It is moving north. Surf will be great today.

capecod · #22 Postby **capecod** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 6:18 am

Melbourne Radar actually shows a very tight and small circulation about 20 miles east of Melbourne this morning. It is drifting northward right now.
Only part about this storm I don't like is the fact this storm is named after my Ex-Wife. :grrr:

#23 Postby **Cookiely** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 6:19 am

I'M CONFUSED WHICH ISN'[T UNUSUAL. TAMMY LOOKS TO BE HEADED NORTH, BUT THE DISCUSSION FROM TAMPA STILL TALKS ABOUT IT GOING ACROSS THE STATE AND INTO THE GOM AND DEEPENING. WHERE IS TAMMY HEADED?
000
FXUS62 KTBW 050700
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
300 AM EDT WED OCT 5 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...THE FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS THE
TROPICAL WAVE NOW OVER AND JUST OFFSHORE SE FL. MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL DOMINATE THE CWFA THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS IT MOVES ACROSS FL AND AND THEN DEEPENS OVER THE GULF. BUT THEY
DIFFER IN TO WHAT EXTENT. THE GFS IS WEAKER...FASTER AND FURTHER TO
THE NORTH THAN THE NAM. SINCE THE GFS HAS HAD A GOOD TRACK RECORD AND
INITIALIZED BETTER TONIGHT WILL FAVOR THAT SOLUTION. HAVE BUMPED POPS
UP TO CATEGORICAL TODAY...AND THEN WILL STAY IN THE LIKELY RANGE THU
BEFORE TRENDING DOWN TO HIGH END SCATTERED FRI. CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL WILL KEEPS MAX TEMPS DOWN NEAR CLIMO WITH MINS STAYING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DECREASING SOME TODAY BUT
COULD BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT-TUE)...MODELS AGAIN DIVERGING IN THE WRAP UP OF
THE UNFOLDING WET EVENT. GFS SOLUTION MORE PROGRESSIVE WHERE AS NAM
SLOWER TO MOVE SYSTEM. BOTH AGREE UPPER MID LATITUDE TROUGH TO
SWEEP THRU THE SE U.S. AND KICK STACKED TROPICAL LOW TO THE E. BUT
TIMING REMAINS IN DOUBT. WILL HOLD ONTO SCT POPS FRI NT INTO SAT
BUT TRIM BACK BY 10 PERCENT ATTM. IF GFS SOLUTION BECOMES
CONSISTENT...MAY HAVE TO LOWER POPS EVEN MORE AS FRONT TO PUSH
TROPICAL MOISTURE S OF THE AREA SAT WHILE NAM CLEARS OUT SUN.
EITHER WAY...EVENTUALLY GET DRIER NW FLOW ALOFT AS SFC HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE REGION FOR FIRST COOL FRONT OF THE SEASON TO WRAP UP THE
WEEKEND. GFS TRIES TO SPIN NEW SFC LOW IN SE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK ON
TAIL END OF THE FRONT WHILE SHORTWAVE MOVE OVER THE AREA. WILL WAIT
FOR BETTER CONSISTENCY BEFORE BUYING OFF ON THAT ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH END CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS
MORNING WITH THE SCA ON THE OFFSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF ENGLEWOOD
ENDING. HOWEVER WILL KEEP SCEC FOR ALL OF THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND
ALSO NEAR SHORE CENTRAL AND NORTH TODAY. THE SCA CONTINUES UNTIL 10AM
FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS CENTRAL AND NORTH...DEPENDING UPON HOW FAST
THE WINDS DROP OFF THE NEXT SHIFT MAY BE ABLE TO LET THIS EXPIRE. AS
THE WAVE MOVES INTO GULF LATER TODAY AND DEVELOPS INTO A LOW SOME
WHERE OVER THE GULF...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND VEER. THIS
LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AS A FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

#24 Postby **jlauderdal** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 6:19 am

capecod wrote:Melbourne Radar actually shows a very tight and small circulation about 20 miles east of Melbourne this morning. It is drifting northward right now.
Only part about this storm I don't like is the fact this storm is named after my Ex-Wife.

high and dry in fll this morning and zero wind, it has been breezy to windy since last friday. funny how weather is, a TS develops close to s and the winds go calm which was great because the 20 mile bike rides in the Am were killing me with the big winds.

Thunder44 · #25 Postby **Thunder44** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 6:19 am

They sure are taking long to get this advisory out. I think they were taken by suprise by this development this morning.

#26 Postby **jlauderdal** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 6:20 am

capecod wrote:Melbourne Radar actually shows a very tight and small circulation about 20 miles east of Melbourne this morning. It is drifting northward right now.
Only part about this storm I don't like is the fact this storm is named after my Ex-Wife.

absolutely, i have it about 25 miles offshore.

#27 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 6:21 am

Thunder maybe they are debating if it is subtropical or tropical?

#28 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 6:21 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #29 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 6:22 am

It has a really tight LLC=tropical
Large wind field=subtropical

#30 Postby **jlauderdal** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 6:22 am

cycloneye wrote:Thunder maybe they are debating if it is subtropical or tropical?

do we have any set criteria on that or is it an educated guess they make?

#31 Postby **jlauderdal** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 6:23 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:It has a really tight LLC=tropical
Large wind field=subtropical

mahjor hurricanes have large windfields and can have llc's too

#32 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 6:24 am

Well I just posted the advisorie.

Thunder44 · #33 Postby **Thunder44** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 6:31 am

cycloneye wrote:Thunder maybe they are debating if it is subtropical or tropical?

No, they seem to be agree that tropical in the TWO. I think they took look to come up with a forecast.

HurricaneGirl · #34 Postby **HurricaneGirl** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 6:31 am

HOLY CRAP!! :eek:

#35 Postby **bvigal** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 6:33 am

So... would someone refresh my memory? Where are we in the history books now, and what year (33?) do we have yet to beat?

#36 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 6:36 am

bvigal wrote:So... would someone refresh my memory? Where are we in the history books now, and what year (33?) do we have yet to beat?

Tied with 1995 for second place.
1 more system and we claim second place for ourselves.
2 more and we tie 1933 for first place.
3 more and we are all-time leader.

#37 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 6:37 am

bvigal wrote:So... would someone refresh my memory? Where are we in the history books now, and what year (33?) do we have yet to beat?

Now 2005 is tied with 1995 with 19 named systems so 2 more to tie 1933.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #38 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 6:40 am

HURAKAN wrote:
bvigal wrote:So... would someone refresh my memory? Where are we in the history books now, and what year (33?) do we have yet to beat?

Tied with 1995 for second place.
1 more system and we claim second place for ourselves.
2 more and we tie 1933 for first place.
3 more and we are all-time leader.

3 More wahoo!!!

#39 Postby **bvigal** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 6:43 am

You guys are the best, thanks!! Just like walking encyclopedias!! :lol:

So once we get "Alpha" we've made history. Hmm, well that will be interesting, for sure.

johngaltfla · #40 Postby **johngaltfla** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 6:44 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:
bvigal wrote:So... would someone refresh my memory? Where are we in the history books now, and what year (33?) do we have yet to beat?

Tied with 1995 for second place.
1 more system and we claim second place for ourselves.
2 more and we tie 1933 for first place.
3 more and we are all-time leader.

3 More wahoo!!!

Uh, those of us in Florida are not cheering. Plus walking around in a "I survived Hurricane Beta" t-shirt might look awful dorky.

:eek:

Tammy

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