22,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[skysummit]

It looks like another thing to watch

At least something to keep us busy for the weekend.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL952005) ON 20051007 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051007 1200 051008 0000 051008 1200 051009 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.7N 56.6W 23.4N 57.6W 24.9N 59.0W 26.2N 60.9W
BAMM 22.7N 56.6W 23.4N 58.0W 24.6N 59.4W 25.8N 61.1W
A98E 22.7N 56.6W 22.8N 58.7W 23.5N 59.8W 25.0N 60.7W
LBAR 22.7N 56.6W 23.5N 57.9W 24.6N 58.8W 26.3N 59.8W
SHIP 25KTS 34KTS 44KTS 54KTS
DSHP 25KTS 34KTS 44KTS 54KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051009 1200 051010 1200 051011 1200 051012 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 27.2N 63.1W 28.6N 67.0W 29.4N 70.3W 29.7N 71.4W
BAMM 26.8N 63.1W 28.7N 67.5W 29.5N 71.6W 29.1N 73.7W
A98E 27.8N 61.2W 32.3N 63.0W 36.4N 65.7W 38.4N 63.0W
LBAR 27.6N 61.0W 30.2N 63.7W 32.4N 67.1W 35.2N 68.1W
SHIP 62KTS 74KTS 83KTS 84KTS
DSHP 62KTS 74KTS 83KTS 84KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.7N LONCUR = 56.6W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 22.7N LONM12 = 54.2W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 22.7N LONM24 = 51.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 80NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


The first model plots for 95L.Ship has it up to 84kts.

[gatorcane]

fish or not fish?

[Brent]

fish or not fish?

The two BAM's seem to say no(west or even WSW at the end of the run), the others say yes.

[flhurricaneguy]

looks like Bamm has it turning back towards florida

[nequad]

I think we need to consider first whether or not this will develop further before trying to determine fish or other.

[Canelaw99]

But that takes all the fun out of it nequad

[superfly]

This isn't going to happen, it's about to run headon into 60kts shear.

[NastyCat4]

Looks like Bamm has it turning back towards florida

Bamms are completely useless outside of the deep tropics--north of 20N, don't even bother looking at them. Look at WXman57's thread on models.

[quandary]

What's the SHIPS seeing that we don't? Usually its at least good for noting that there's going to be shear somewhere, but it just ramps this thing up to a Cat 2 storm. Hybrid storms are pretty good at standing up against strong shear, but they never get up to hurricane strength, much less Cat 2 strength unless they fully transition.

[flhurricaneguy]

so what models should be used in this scenario?

[skysummit]

so what models should be used in this scenario?

None really...the models don't mean squat right now. They just give a "general idea"....and I mean very GENERAL.

[sponger]

I would disagree on Bamm being useless. They do fairly well with shallow systems even out of the deep tropics. Did real well with td 10/ katrina untill it reached hurricane strength.

The real issue is this time of year they don't do well with cold front interactions.

[nequad]

so what models should be used in this scenario?

The global models. And that is usually the case. However, there is way too much talk on here about the hurricane models being completely useless. I don't know whay people make such blanket statements. To disregard any guidance out of hand is what is useless. These models can be very useful when used in conjuction with global model guidance and sound analysis of the situation at hand.

[gatorcane]

if the BAMMs are useless above 20N then TAKE THEM OFF the model runs.

[Swimdude]

I'd just like to point out that the SHIP model has been over-estimating intensity like CRAZY lately with the past few invests.

[cycloneye]

A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 425 NM NE OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 23N57W MOVING W 5-10 KT. THE LOW IS
COLLOCATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N54W AND IS
HELPING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION MAINLY E OF THE
SURFACE CENTER FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 50W-58W. DEEP MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO PRODUCING
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 19N-24N BETWEEN
47W-52W...AND FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 41W-50W. DEEP CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED NEAR THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE PAST 24 HRS AND IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT COULD DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HRS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY W/NW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS REMAINING
FAR FROM ANY LAND AREAS EXCEPT FOR BERMUDA.

2 PM Discussion about 95L

[curtadams]

Ships always overestimates invests, because SHIPS is a statistical model based *only* on actual tropical cyclones. http://ndrd.gsfc.nasa.gov/ndrdres/hurri ... nce_I.html Basically, it tells you the average behavior of tropical cyclones at the same stage. Obviously, to become a tropical cyclone, these storms had to intensify as invests and depressions. Invests and depressions that just sputter out aren't included in the SHIPS model. So SHIPS is basically completely useless until the storm has a name.

[CHRISTY]

what are the chances of this continueing west till florida????shouldn't it have turn north already but it continues west....

[gatorcane]

what are the chances of this continueing west till florida????shouldn't it have turn north already but it continues west

some of the models take it WNW then back W into FL