New England Hurricane?

[wxwatcher91]

000
FXUS61 KBOX 171900
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
300 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2005

NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THE WEEKEND (ARE WE GETTING INTO A STRING
OF CLOUDY/WET WEEKENDS ALREADY)? GFS OFFERS A REASONABLE SOLUTION PER
HPC THINKING WITH LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NE FROM OH VALLEY INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA...AND A SECONDARY LOW FORMING OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SUN MORNING BEFORE HEADING INTO GULF OF MAINE SUN NIGHT AND
MON. WE ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AS TO WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL
CONNECTION WILL COME INTO PLAY IN ADVANCE OF WILMA THIS FAR OUT IN
TIME. BUT WE STILL THINK THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF THAT
HAPPENING...ESPECIALLY WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER UPPER MIDWEST AND A
DEEP UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS MAY ALSO DELAY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS WE HAVE MON...SO OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN DAYS 6/7 IS MEDIUM
AT BEST.

[nequad]

Most intriguing factor for an EC raker and NE threat is the medium range guidance development of a potent shortwave trough diving south from Canada by days 5 and 6. There are some signals of this feature going negative tilt over the Ohio Valley by day 6. If this verifies with Wilma being in the vicinity of FL...then that would be ideal for yanking Wilma northward ahead of the trough.

Of course only time will tell, and meduim range guidance depicting negative tilted troughs 6 days out need to be taken with a grain of salt, but this bears watching nonetheless.

An East coast raker would be a fitting end to this season. Not really, but you know what I mean.

[nequad]

144 hour NOGAPS...note the negative tilted trough approaching the Ohio Valley with Wilma offshore the SE coast.

[tornadochaser86]

well who knows maybe wilma will hit new england one of the tracks has it crossing florida and going into the atlantic

[krysof]

Oh that would be horrible for the EC. The U.S east coast should absolutely monitor this scenario all the way north to new england and the northeast coast.

[fuzzyblow]

Oh that would be horrible for the EC. The U.S east coast should absolutely monitor this scenario all the way north to new england and the northeast coast.

Even here in south Quebec flooding is everywhere,,, no! don't want it here too...

[SamSagnella]

144 hour NOGAPS...note the negative tilted trough approaching the Ohio Valley with Wilma offshore the SE coast.

A negatively tilted trough is one of the few things that can draw a tropical cyclone back to the NW (or at least keep it N/NNE) and into New England. Needless to say, I will definitely be keeping an eye on this situation from SW Connecticut...where it takes a very unique set of circumstances to put me in the RFQ. By the time storms reach my latitude, they're almost always completely one-sided (E being strongest), which I would at least partially blame on a rather extreme average forward motion of 25kt+ and interaction with the upper-level westerlies usually present this time of year.

[wxwatcher91]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... hour=144hr

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... hour=126hr

[truballer#1]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc2.cgi?time=2005101812&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=144hr

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... hour=126hr

I already pasted that a while ago

[JamesFromMaine2]

Forcast Discussion for Portland Maine:

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ON THURSDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED UPSLOPE
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AND
PARTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE IN THE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW. WIDESPREAD
FREEZE/FROST IS LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SEACOAST
NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT MILDER.
AFTER A CHILLY START...FRIDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY WITH A
BIT LESS WIND AND CLOUDS AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. NEXT
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM ADVANCES NORTHEAST FROM THE MIDWEST ON SATURDAY
WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AND THE PROSPECT FOR A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS
OVER WESTERN SECTIONS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...SLOW
MOVING SYSTEM WITH STRONG ATLANTIC INFLOW AND PERHAPS YET ANOTHER
TROPICAL CONNECTION MAY YIELD ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT
ACROSS THE REGION.

[Duffy]

yes i saw that James....the GFS has now jumped on Board with the Euro with this Solution
i say Bring her on Baby wohoooooooooo

[Gulfer]

yes i saw that James....the GFS has now jumped on Board with the Euro with this Solution
i say Bring her on Baby wohoooooooooo

I also remember when I was in middle school

[pgoss11]

What are the latest model trends for New England after the Florida strike. I am just so very worried about the rain. From drought to floods in one week. Does anyone have the latest tracks for late in the period- say Sunday to Monday?

[JamesFromMaine2]

the GFS has wilma skimming along the east coast and making landfall on the NH and ME boarder as I think still a hurricane

[pgoss11]

I am in RI just wondering if it will stay offshore or slam into our coastline.
Even if its offshore the rain will still be plentiful which is bad for us here. Our dams are at their breaking point and more rain could be catastophic here.

[Duffy]

[quote="JamesFromMaine2"]the GFS has wilma skimming along the east coast and making landfall on the NH and ME boarder as I think still a hurricane[/quote


oh man james if that verifies then we'd be on the Northern end of the Storm and would get slammed ]