TD 24,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

MiamiensisWx · #21 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 4:12 pm

Shear is increasing to the north of the center of TD 24's circulation. Is that expected to relax?

#22 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 4:13 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:Shear is increasing to the north of the center of TD 24's circulation. Is that expected to relax?

obviously, if the nhc is calling for 100mph in the first forecast!

texasweatherwatcher · #23 Postby **texasweatherwatcher** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 4:14 pm

krysof · #24 Postby **krysof** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 4:15 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:Shear is increasing to the north of the center of TD 24's circulation. Is that expected to relax?

Maybe right now no, but the center isn't going north into the shear I guess so maybe it does have a chance. Right now I'm thinking the shear to its north and dry air will impact it unless that changes, and if the NHC expects a Cat 2 hurricane in 5-6 days then I guess the conditions will improve.

f5 · #25 Postby f5 » Sat Oct 15, 2005 4:16 pm

jkt21787 wrote:
cjrciadt wrote:
WindRunner wrote:Interesting public advisory . . . already talking about posting hurricane watches -> hurricane in 36hrs????? I guess we'll have to wait and see the advisory.
The forecast says 100kt by 18/1800z they expect to get together quickly.

I only see them taking it to 85kts...that would be 100 *MPH*

sounds like a Rita rerun

JamesFromMaine2 · #26 Postby **JamesFromMaine2** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 4:17 pm

the shear around the system couldn't that be some what from the system its self?

MiamiensisWx · #27 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 4:18 pm

JamesFromMaine2 wrote:the shear around the system couldn't that be some what from the system its self?

Maybe, but I don't think so...

CalmBeforeStorm · #28 Postby **CalmBeforeStorm** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 4:26 pm

JamesFromMaine2 wrote:the shear around the system couldn't that be some what from the system its self?

From the NHC discussion:

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY
SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...AND WITHIN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.

I'll take the NHC over an amatuer reading a shear chart.

#29 Postby **THead** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 4:33 pm

The way it looks to me is, she's going to use the warm waters over the more favorable areas of shear, to the south and east. Looks like she might develop a big "tail" coming out of the SE quad running south and then SW. There's alot of heat and moisture in that area. That should sustain her for a while until she gets moving, and conditions become more favorable north of her.

JamesFromMaine2 · #30 Postby **JamesFromMaine2** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 4:35 pm

CalmBeforeStorm wrote:
JamesFromMaine2 wrote:the shear around the system couldn't that be some what from the system its self?

From the NHC discussion:

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY
SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...AND WITHIN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.

I'll take the NHC over an amatuer reading a shear chart.

Ok there was no need for you to say that! There has been alot of people talking about a increase in shear around the system and so I was just saying that couldn't it be from the storm its self since and so wouldn't affect the storm at all! I have heard a bunch of times this year about storms causing there own shear so I was just wondering! I was in no way trying to say that this system wouldn't develop at all b/c of shear! I my self feel that the GFDL could be right and we could be dealing with another cat 5 sub 900mb hurricane at some point in its life!

Website · #31 Postby **Brent** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 4:35 pm

It's not heading north for at least 3-4 days though... so as of now the shear isn't a problem.

wxmann_91 · #32 Postby **wxmann_91** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 4:46 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:Shear is increasing to the north of the center of TD 24's circulation. Is that expected to relax?

If shear is right over a hurricane, then it is bad for the hurricane.

If shear is around a hurricane, then it is good for the hurricane as long as it stays around the hurricane, since it indicates well-established outflow for a healthy storm, or an improving outflow channel for weak, intensifying storms.

x-y-no · #33 Postby **x-y-no** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:06 pm

18Z GFS is out to 78 hours so far ...

Drifts it slowly WSW for most of the first three days, turning NNW after 72 hours. Keeps it a weak system so far, but looks like it may be deepening it soon after that. Update soon.

EDIT:

Out to 96 hours now ... still nearly stationary, not deepening any.

x-y-no · #34 Postby **x-y-no** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:11 pm

108 hours - deepening it some now. Moving slowly NNW.

#35 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:12 pm

x-y-no wrote:108 hours - deepening it some now. Moving slowly NNW.

i hope it starts to turn it away from me :eek:

ronjon · #36 Postby **ronjon** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:14 pm

From CHFC - Clark (MET)

Early thinking is for a pretty climatological path for this one -- initially west for a few days at a relatively slow rate of speed before a turn toward the north and, ultimately, northeast. Everyone in the entire Gulf needs to watch this one, sure, but I would put the most likely region of impact from Cedar Key, FL southward...most likely between Sarasota and Key West. It's too early to have a lot of confidence in that, but that's what I'm looking at right now. We're getting pretty late in the season to see a monster storm, but there is precedence (Mitch 1998) for a very intense storm. I don't buy the GFDL's solution quite yet, but with a favorable upper-level pattern, upper lows well to the E & NE providing potential outflow channels, and underlying water temperatures & heat content that are still well up there, the potential is certainly there to see a major hurricane out of the last name on the list. Would bank on slow but steady intensification over the next day or two followed by the potential for some more rapid intensification thereafter. Landfall, if the above holds, is looking to be around this time next week, give or take a day or so.

Complications could arise if this one heads west faster than anticipated...it'd likely end up in the Bay of Campeche region if it did so, with all bets off from there.

Stay tuned...this is certainly one a lot of people are going to need to watch and potentially need to make preparations for this week.

x-y-no · #37 Postby **x-y-no** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:18 pm

I've got a nasty feeling about this one with regard to western Cuba and the south to central Florida peninsula. Enough to have just called my parents and told them make sure they're stocked up and I might be down there Wednesday to put up their shutters.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #38 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:21 pm

x-y-no wrote:I've got a nasty feeling about this one with regard to western Cuba and the south to central Florida peninsula. Enough to have just called my parents and told them make sure they're stocked up and I might be down there Wednesday to put up their shutters.

I will be checking my hurricane kits tonight for sure. Even though this
thing is a week away, the earlier the better.

Website · #39 Postby **Brent** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:23 pm

Someone needs to move the floater...

#40 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:24 pm

Brent wrote:Someone needs to move the floater...

Where is dixie!!!!?

TD 24,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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