The great debate.. Will the track shift NORTH..?

[Foladar0]

The GFS started with a shift north from yesterday runs. The NOGAPS has been on and off with a track through Tampa Bay the last two days. The new 18Z GFDL has shifted significantly northward from its previous two runs (now smashing into Englewood with 120 mph winds). These are not BAM or the equally unreliable LBAR (although LBAR has stayed with a Tampa Bay track for 3 days now). I don't know if its a trend - appears to be. These models may be picking up on a slightly more amplified trough which would move Wilma more NE than E-NE. Also, there has been no deep penetration into the YP as predicted by a westward movement by several of the models - Wilma looks to graze the NE tip of the YP and thereby may gain more latitude prior to the recurvature.

the GFDL has been all over the place, as has every model, I wouldn't know which one to trust with their lack of "handle" on this storm.

[gatorcane]

ronjon,

exactly what I'm thinking. There is no way that trough is going to push very easily off the SE coast of the US and especially not through the peninsula of FL. It's only mid October

What usually happens this time of year is that you get a highly amplified trough that makes it farther south into the Western and central GOM then it does the eastern GOM or extreme E coast of the U.S

If we were in November or December you would see a less amplified trough that woudl push through the GOM and FL.

That won't happen here. Expect Wilma to move more NE very close to Tampa Bay or just south then exit around Daytona area.

[SWFLMom]

The National Hurricane Center's forecast track for Wilma has been now shifting continuously slightly further northward. It now takes it as a direct hit on or just north of Naples, then exiting it further north than previously along the eastern Florida coast, now exiting it near or within the Hobe Sound/Stuart area or north of West Palm Beach.

Actually the NHC track has been south of Naples for days now. When you look at the west coast of FL, the most southern "bump" (for lack of a better description) is closest to Marco Island which is several miles south of downtown Naples. The 8pm (Oct 21) NHC track is the first in a while that hits Naples. Since we live in Naples, we have been tracking this pretty closely.