SW Carribean development

#21 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Oct 25, 2005 11:04 am

12z GFS at 72 hours.

rockyman · #22 Postby **rockyman** » Tue Oct 25, 2005 11:06 am

I know it's early...but the models seem to indicate that this system will have a hard time escaping off to the NE (through the Greater Antilles)...does this look to be a Central American event or could the system move into the Gomex?

Also, any ideas on when (?if?) we'll have an INVEST?

#23 Postby **Canelaw99** » Tue Oct 25, 2005 11:12 am

You have GOT to be kidding me! South FL is officially closed, thank you very much LOL Geez....I guess this is the Energizer season - it keeps going, and going...... :roll:

#24 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Oct 25, 2005 11:13 am

12z GFS at 84 hours.

rockyman about invest being up depends if a low is detected and the BAM models start to plot.

scogor · #25 Postby **scogor** » Tue Oct 25, 2005 11:26 am

Interesting article in our paper today about "Hurricane Fatigue" being the "new normal" for us battered Floridians...goes hand in hand with the GFS runs...

Amazingly, Sarasota/Bradenton/Tampa Bay have managed to (for the most part) dodge a large number of bullets...but it's these late season storms that worry us the most.

Derecho · #26 Postby **Derecho** » Tue Oct 25, 2005 11:30 am

rockyman wrote:I know it's early...but the models seem to indicate that this system will have a hard time escaping off to the NE (through the Greater Antilles)...does this look to be a Central American event or could the system move into the Gomex?

It's basically trapped eternally off Nicaragua/Honduras on the models....days on end. Big ridge to the N.

On the GFS it finally goes NE but in a time period where any model is pretty much of limited use. The other models don't run long enough to show it going anywhere.

Derecho · #27 Postby **Derecho** » Tue Oct 25, 2005 11:32 am

cinlfla wrote:But wouldn't the water temps be much colder since we just have this major cold front come through. I would think that would inhibit any kind of development in the sw carribean unless that water temps down three are still plenty warm.

It's takes a really long time for water to warm (or cool.)

And in the Western Carribean, the warm water is deep; any storm causing upwelling just upwells water as warm as that on the surface.

Actually, there's no reason that you couldn't have tropical systems in the Western Carribean year round routinely, OTHER than shear.

The water there is easily warm enough for tropical formation 12 months a year. The near continuous shear there from late November through May is the reason the season stops.

#28 Postby **JtSmarts** » Tue Oct 25, 2005 11:33 am

Derecho wrote:
cinlfla wrote:But wouldn't the water temps be much colder since we just have this major cold front come through. I would think that would inhibit any kind of development in the sw carribean unless that water temps down three are still plenty warm.

It's takes a really long time for water to warm (or cool.)

And in the Western Carribean, the warm water is deep; any storm causing upwelling just upwells water as warm as that on the surface.

Actually, there's no reason that you couldn't have tropical systems in the Western Carribean year round routinely, OTHER than shear.

The water there is easily warm enough for tropical formation 12 months a year. The near continuous shear there from late November through May is the reason the season stops.

Thanks for explaining that Derecho, I didn't realise that water temps were generally warm enough for tropical development year round.

#29 Postby **WxGuy1** » Tue Oct 25, 2005 11:44 am

It is interesting the consistency of this development. I saw this in a run of the UKMET a couple of days ago. The water is warm and deep, as someone else has noted, and any cold front isn't going to significantly impact this.

The Maximum Potential Intensity for this part of the Caribbean is <930mb and the are would support a Cat 4+ storm right now. http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL The local minimum in MPI just sw of Jamaica is a temporary result of cooler waters upwelled by Wilma.

EDIT: Not to alarm anyone by the MPI, as I read in a publication that most storms only attain 40-50% of their MPI (while annular hurricanes tend to persist at an average of 80% of the MPI). I believe only one storm (Lili) has strengthened beyond what was indicated by the MPI.

#30 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Oct 25, 2005 12:27 pm

The 12z CMC (Canadian) model.

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+12 : 9.7N 79.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 26.10.2005 9.7N 79.8W WEAK

12UTC 26.10.2005 9.7N 79.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 27.10.2005 10.5N 80.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 27.10.2005 11.3N 80.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 28.10.2005 12.7N 80.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 28.10.2005 13.2N 80.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 29.10.2005 13.7N 80.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 29.10.2005 14.2N 80.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 30.10.2005 14.5N 80.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 30.10.2005 14.5N 80.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 31.10.2005 14.7N 80.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 31.10.2005 15.3N 81.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12z UKMET.

Clint_TX · #31 Postby **Clint_TX** » Tue Oct 25, 2005 12:43 pm

The boys at GITMO ...

#32 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Oct 25, 2005 1:02 pm

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR
11N78W WITH MINIMUM PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1011 MB. THIS SYSTEM HAS
BEEN SHOWING SIGNS OF INCREASING ORGANIZATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WITH BANDING FEATURES BECOMING MORE PROMINENT. COMPUTER MODELS
UNANIMOUSLY SUGGEST THE AREA HAS POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY WARM WATER AND LIGHT WIND SHEAR IN THE
FORECAST. A SLOW DRIFT TO THE W OR WNW IS LIKELY WITH THIS
SYSTEM. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE S OF 13N BETWEEN 76W-83W.

2 PM Special Feature Discussion.

gotoman38 · #33 Postby **gotoman38** » Tue Oct 25, 2005 1:08 pm

To quote Parliament's Aqua Boogie... it's a Psychoalphadiscobetabioaquadoloop

:roll:

(Never thought I'd be able to say *that* here)

#34 Postby **feederband** » Tue Oct 25, 2005 1:56 pm

cycloneye wrote:
angelwing wrote:Gee, no rest for the weary

I wanted to get a little rest from the forum for a few days but it looks like some more activity soon to cause me to stay moderating the forum.

"I'll get plenty of sleep when I'm dead"... :wink:

*Movie Triva* What movie is that from.... :lol:

superfly · #35 Postby **superfly** » Tue Oct 25, 2005 1:59 pm

WxGuy1 wrote:EDIT: Not to alarm anyone by the MPI, as I read in a publication that most storms only attain 40-50% of their MPI (while annular hurricanes tend to persist at an average of 80% of the MPI). I believe only one storm (Lili) has strengthened beyond what was indicated by the MPI.

Wilma did too or came damn close.

Website · #36 Postby **Brent** » Tue Oct 25, 2005 2:02 pm

I don't see how it gets to the Gulf and survives... feels like it wants to snow here today. :lol:

#37 Postby **alicia-w** » Tue Oct 25, 2005 2:02 pm

Roadhouse, Sam Elliot

#38 Postby **feederband** » Tue Oct 25, 2005 2:04 pm

alicia-w wrote:Roadhouse, Sam Elliot

WINNER !!!

#39 Postby **Noah** » Tue Oct 25, 2005 2:45 pm

is something going to come to florida again???

WALT · #40 Postby **WALT** » Tue Oct 25, 2005 4:20 pm

LONG RANGE FORECAST...
GFS SLOWLY DEVELOPS YET ANOTHER TROPICAL LOW OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN ON THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT THAT JUST MOVED THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA AND MERGE WITH WILMA. GFS THEN KEEPS THE SYSTEM
SPINNING OVER THE WESTERN CARIB BEFORE IT BEGINS TO MOVE IT
NORTHWARD BY TUESDAY. WILL IT HAPPEN? IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE...CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING. WE'LL KNOW MORE LATER.

SW Carribean development

from Miami today

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