93L/Ex TD27 Recon Reports

#21 Postby **P.K.** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 2:52 pm

40kts, around 28kts at the surface.

SXXX50 KNHC 171946
AF303 01JJA INVEST HDOB 35 KNHC
1937 1631N 08420W 00244 5043 027 034 230 230 035 00214 0000000000
1937. 1631N 08422W 00244 5042 029 034 228 228 034 00215 0000000000
1938 1631N 08423W 00244 5042 027 033 226 226 034 00216 0000000000
1938. 1631N 08425W 00244 5041 028 033 226 226 033 00217 0000000000
1939 1631N 08427W 00244 5040 027 031 224 224 032 00217 0000000000
1939. 1631N 08428W 00245 5040 030 031 222 222 031 00219 0000000000
1940 1632N 08430W 00243 5040 030 031 220 220 032 00216 0000000000
1940. 1632N 08431W 00245 5040 032 031 216 216 032 00218 0000000000
1941 1632N 08433W 00244 5040 034 034 214 214 034 00218 0000000000
1941. 1633N 08435W 00243 5039 033 034 218 218 034 00217 0000000000
1942 1633N 08436W 00244 5040 035 035 214 214 038 00217 0000000000
1942. 1634N 08438W 00244 5039 037 038 218 218 040 00219 0000000000
1943 1635N 08439W 00244 5038 037 035 220 220 036 00219 0000000000
1943. 1636N 08440W 00244 5036 039 036 220 220 037 00221 0000000000
1944 1637N 08441W 00244 5036 042 036 220 220 037 00222 0000000000
1944. 1638N 08442W 00243 5036 042 034 222 222 037 00221 0000000000
1945 1639N 08444W 00244 5036 039 033 220 220 035 00221 0000000000
1945. 1640N 08445W 00245 5035 041 036 220 220 037 00223 0000000000
1946 1640N 08446W 00243 5035 042 036 220 220 036 00222 0000000000
1946. 1641N 08447W 00244 5034 041 036 224 224 037 00223 0000000000

superfly · #22 Postby **superfly** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 2:52 pm

Well those are most definitely west winds.

(Not the latest ones but several sets earlier.)

#23 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 2:53 pm

Where are the flight level winds at?

Do we multiply by 70% 80% or 90%?

#24 Postby **P.K.** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 2:55 pm

Only 240m up in this case so it is 70%.

#25 Postby **P.K.** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 3:12 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 172003
AF303 01JJA INVEST HDOB 36 KNHC
1955 1658N 08509W 00243 5030 043 029 228 212 031 00227 0000000000
1955. 1658N 08510W 00244 5029 044 030 228 218 031 00228 0000000000
1956 1659N 08511W 00244 5029 044 030 228 222 031 00229 0000000000
1956. 1700N 08513W 00244 5029 045 030 226 220 030 00228 0000000000
1957 1701N 08514W 00244 5028 043 032 226 216 032 00228 0000000000
1957. 1702N 08515W 00244 5028 044 032 226 218 032 00230 0000000000
1958 1703N 08516W 00243 5028 045 031 228 218 033 00229 0000000000
1958. 1704N 08518W 00245 5027 046 028 228 226 029 00231 0000000000
1959 1705N 08519W 00243 5027 044 031 230 218 031 00229 0000000000
1959. 1706N 08520W 00244 5027 044 032 230 210 032 00231 0000000000
2000 1707N 08521W 00244 5026 046 031 230 218 031 00231 0000000000
2000. 1708N 08523W 00244 5026 047 030 228 218 031 00231 0000000000
2001 1709N 08524W 00244 5025 050 028 230 222 029 00232 0000000000
2001. 1710N 08525W 00244 5025 050 029 230 208 030 00233 0000000000
2002 1711N 08527W 00244 5024 049 030 232 212 031 00233 0000000000
2002. 1712N 08528W 00245 5024 054 028 230 226 029 00234 0000000000
2003 1713N 08529W 00243 5023 053 027 230 228 027 00234 0000000000
2003. 1714N 08530W 00244 5022 053 027 230 222 028 00235 0000000000
2004 1715N 08532W 00244 5022 054 027 230 222 027 00236 0000000000
2004. 1716N 08533W 00244 5021 050 025 230 224 026 00236 000000000

#26 Postby **P.K.** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 3:18 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 172013
AF303 01JJA INVEST HDOB 37 KNHC
2005 1717N 08534W 00244 5020 051 026 230 224 026 00237 0000000000
2005. 1717N 08536W 00243 5020 049 025 228 228 026 00237 0000000000
2006 1719N 08537W 00244 5020 051 026 228 228 027 00237 0000000000
2006. 1720N 08538W 00246 5019 047 024 226 226 025 00240 0000000000
2007 1721N 08538W 00241 5020 031 031 224 224 033 00234 0000000000
2007. 1722N 08539W 00244 5020 029 032 222 222 033 00238 0000000000
2008 1723N 08540W 00244 5019 032 032 220 220 032 00239 0000000000
2008. 1725N 08541W 00243 5018 029 033 220 220 035 00239 0000000000
2009 1726N 08542W 00245 5017 032 036 222 222 036 00242 0000000000
2009. 1727N 08542W 00243 5017 035 035 222 222 036 00239 0000000000
2010 1728N 08543W 00244 5016 037 036 216 216 037 00241 0000000000
2010. 1729N 08544W 00245 5016 040 034 210 210 036 00242 0000000000
2011 1730N 08545W 00243 5016 043 033 220 220 034 00241 0000000000
2011. 1732N 08545W 00243 5015 043 033 220 220 034 00241 0000000000
2012 1733N 08545W 00245 5015 044 033 220 220 034 00243 0000000000
2012. 1734N 08545W 00244 5015 042 030 218 218 033 00243 0000000000
2013 1735N 08545W 00244 5015 040 027 216 216 027 00243 0000000000
2013. 1737N 08545W 00243 5014 040 036 212 212 037 00242 0000000000
2014 1738N 08544W 00244 5014 044 034 218 218 036 00243 0000000000
2014. 1739N 08543W 00245 5013 040 033 216 216 034 00245 0000000000

Forecaster Colby · #27 Postby **Forecaster Colby** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 3:28 pm

Shouldn't there be a Vortex?

Thunder44 · #28 Postby **Thunder44** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 3:30 pm

49kts at Flight level.

SXXX50 KNHC 172023
AF303 01JJA INVEST HDOB 38 KNHC
2015 1740N 08544W 00244 5013 036 037 212 212 040 00244 0000000000
2015. 1741N 08545W 00243 5014 040 043 204 204 046 00242 0000000000
2016 1741N 08546W 00246 5013 041 046 204 204 049 00246 0000000000
2016. 1742N 08548W 00240 5013 052 036 206 206 040 00240 0000000000
2017 1742N 08550W 00247 5013 050 029 218 218 032 00248 0000000000
2017. 1744N 08550W 00241 5013 034 028 232 232 030 00242 0000000000
2018 1745N 08551W 00246 5013 030 030 236 236 031 00246 0000000000
2018. 1746N 08551W 00243 5012 031 029 236 236 032 00245 0000000000
2019 1748N 08552W 00245 5012 031 031 236 236 032 00246 0000000000
2019. 1749N 08552W 00242 5012 029 030 236 236 032 00243 0000000000
2020 1750N 08553W 00246 5013 028 030 236 236 031 00246 0000000000
2020. 1751N 08553W 00242 5012 028 030 236 236 031 00243 0000000000
2021 1753N 08553W 00246 5012 027 029 236 236 030 00247 0000000000
2021. 1754N 08554W 00244 5012 030 030 236 236 030 00245 0000000000
2022 1755N 08554W 00242 5012 028 030 236 236 031 00244 0000000000
2022. 1757N 08555W 00245 5011 028 029 236 236 030 00247 0000000000
2023 1758N 08555W 00245 5011 025 030 236 236 030 00247 0000000000
2023. 1759N 08554W 00242 5011 027 030 236 236 030 00245 0000000000
2024 1800N 08554W 00245 5011 030 031 236 236 031 00247 0000000000
2024. 1802N 08554W 00244 5011 030 032 240 234 032 00246 0000000000

#29 Postby **brunota2003** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 3:31 pm

so 34 kts at surface roughly, did they find west winds though??? If so, could we be looking at Gamma???

Forecaster Colby · #30 Postby **Forecaster Colby** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 3:32 pm

brunota2003 wrote:so 34 kts at surface roughly, did they find west winds though??? If so, could we be looking at Gamma???

If it isn't now, it will be tonight. It seems to be strengthening pretty quickly as they make their passes.

#31 Postby **brunota2003** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 3:34 pm

Forecaster Colby wrote:
brunota2003 wrote:so 34 kts at surface roughly, did they find west winds though??? If so, could we be looking at Gamma???

If it isn't now, it will be tonight. It seems to be strengthening pretty quickly as they make their passes.

yep. 35 kts is TS, so they would round 34.3 to 35, so Gamma, but did they find west winds??? I have heard both ways, need to know for real if they did...

Forecaster Colby · #32 Postby **Forecaster Colby** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 3:36 pm

superfly wrote:Well those are most definitely west winds.

(Not the latest ones but several sets earlier.)

Looks like it

Here we go again :roll:

#33 Postby **brunota2003** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 3:37 pm

Forecaster Colby wrote:
superfly wrote:Well those are most definitely west winds.

(Not the latest ones but several sets earlier.)

Looks like it

Here we go again

ok, right after that someone said no west winds, but I guess I'll just "assume" they found some... :eek:

jkt21787 · #34 Postby **jkt21787** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 3:42 pm

NHC just released a statement, NO TD

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #35 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 3:43 pm

If they did find some I guest they are waiting for some 40 knot west wind. The cirulaiton on satellitte looks very good.

:eek:

#36 Postby **brunota2003** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 3:48 pm

hmmm...that might be a mid-level circulation there, but with winds near TS force already, this thing shouldnt have any problems going to the surface IMO...

fasterdisaster · #37 Postby **fasterdisaster** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 8:52 pm

I expect Gamma by morning

Forecaster Colby · #38 Postby **Forecaster Colby** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 9:00 pm

fasterdisaster wrote:I expect Gamma by morning

Seems highly likely. I'm continuing my own advisories on it, since I'd just have to start re-issuing them. It was developing a LLC as they left, it'll be there in the next couple hours.

JamesFromMaine2 · #39 Postby **JamesFromMaine2** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 9:00 pm

fasterdisaster wrote:I expect Gamma by morning

could be almost Hurricane Gamma by morning! Theres already about 70mph winds near the center according to the latest windsat

Forecaster Colby · #40 Postby **Forecaster Colby** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 9:14 pm

JamesFromMaine2 wrote:
fasterdisaster wrote:I expect Gamma by morning

could be almost Hurricane Gamma by morning! Theres already about 70mph winds near the center according to the latest windsat

I assume those are contaminated in some way, storms don't generally strengthen so quickly with such organization.

93L/Ex TD27 Recon Reports

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