TWC: "It Could Happen Tomorrow"

[AussieMark]

a category 3 in the north east is comparable to a category 4 in the GOM or SE USA right?

[Brent]

a category 3 in the north east is comparable to a category 4 in the GOM or SE USA right?

If it hit New York in the right place at the right angle... it'd be worse than Katrina.

[mike815]

that is interesting maybe i will watch some of it. i just dont like TWC anymore so rarely watch there stuff they put up only one on there i still like is cantore. thanks brent though if i have nothing else to do maybe i will try and watch all of it. or at least tape it.

[mike815]

thats tru a strong cat 2/3 would be devestating thats for sure. it would have to hit at the right angle though. theres no doubt it would be bad.

[Derek Ortt]

Downtown Miami did not even get cat 2 in Andrew. Coconut Grove did... but NOT the center of the city.

The winds were slightly less than Wilma, though isolated gusts near the coast were slightly higher

[x-y-no]

Downtown Miami did not even get cat 2 in Andrew. Coconut Grove did... but NOT the center of the city.

The winds were slightly less than Wilma, though isolated gusts near the coast were slightly higher

That's correct. The Marriott Marina, where I kept my boat at the time, had only minimal damage. By contrast, Dinner Key Marina was devastated.

Here's the wind graphic from the reanalysis:

[JonathanBelles]

If a Cat 5 can't make landfall in 95 degree Gulf temps there is no way it will happen in the 75 degree water of the NE...

the middle Gulf waters were never 95 degrees...may be 88-89...but not 95. Most of the water was near 85 degrees.

they were 93 degrees in july and august

[Derek Ortt]

and a few inches below the surface, the waters are typically below 80 degrees, which is why the cat 4's and 5's struggle, except while over the loop current

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

What would water which is 95 degrees down to 200 to 500 feet deep do to a tropical cyclone? If there was a under water volcano could it make the water hot enough.

[mike815]

yeah it would make it hot enough

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I believe if there is another Katrina like storm over the Gulf of Mexico that a under water volcano going off could get that storm to the coast as a strong cat5. But thats the only way a cat5 could hit the northern Gulf.

[JonathanBelles]

All strikes in the US since 1950 to 2005.

what about camile was it in a "hot spot"?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Downtown Miami did not even get cat 2 in Andrew. Coconut Grove did... but NOT the center of the city.

The winds were slightly less than Wilma, though isolated gusts near the coast were slightly higher

That's correct. The Marriott Marina, where I kept my boat at the time, had only minimal damage. By contrast, Dinner Key Marina was devastated.

Here's the wind graphic from the reanalysis:

Andrew's worst appears to have been just north of eye

[Brent]

All strikes in the US since 1950 to 2005.

what about camile was it in a "hot spot"?

It's there... see the red dot at the Mouth of the Mississippi?

[JonathanBelles]

by hot spot i ment underwater volcano

[Astro_man92]

That may be possible for one to be but highly unlikely because the gulf of Mexico is no where near a fault line. It could be possible though because hot spots also accrue where the crust is at it's thinnest

[wxmann_91]

by hot spot i ment underwater volcano

No.

[Jim Cantore]

If a Cat 5 can't make landfall in 95 degree Gulf temps there is no way it will happen in the 75 degree water of the NE...

It wouldnt have to go that far north

waters were over 80 at the Jersey Shore this year by July

its looking more Possible it seems by the year

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

The only cat 3 to hit New England in the 20th century are:

1. The Great New England Hurricane of 1938 (946 mb), maybe a cat. 4.

2. *Hurricane Edna of 1954 (954 mb).

3. Hurricane Carol 1954 (though many say it was actually a strong cat 2).


* It seem likely that Hurricane Edna was undergoing an eye wall replacement cycle while near Cap Cod. Reports actually seem to indicate the presence of a second, slightly deeper, eye. This would explain why it was still so strong this far North.


Some food for thought.

[wxman57]

The only cat 3 to hit New England in the 20th century are:

1. The Great New England Hurricane of 1938 (946 mb), maybe a cat. 4.

2. *Hurricane Edna of 1954 (954 mb).

3. Hurricane Carol 1954 (though many say it was actually a strong cat 2).


* It seem likely that Hurricane Edna was undergoing an eye wall replacement cycle while near Cap Cod. Reports actually seem to indicate the presence of a second, slightly deeper, eye. This would explain why it was still so strong this far North.

Looks like Hurricane Carol was never a Cat 3, much less over New England. It's listed as a Cat 2 as max intentisy. As for Edna, it was a Cat 3 near Hatteras but weakening steadily up to New England, where it struck as a borderline Cat 2/Cat 1. By the way, hurricanes weaken considerably during an eyewall replacement cycle, they don't strengthen until after the cycle is complete and the eye contracts. Not sure what you mean by a "second deeper eye". A hurricane can have only one eye.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html