Tasman Sea: TC Tam

[Coredesat]

Still an invest on NRL:

12/0852 UTC 15.2S 176.5W T2.0/2.0 99P

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.3S 177.8E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6S 177.9W, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM NORTHEAST OF
SUVA, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CYCLIC
DEEP CONVECTION OVER A WELL DEVELOPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE AREA IS UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, INCREASING 850 MB VORTICITY AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.

[HURAKAN]

Gale Warning 005 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 12/0719 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone TAM centre [991hPa] was located near 14.7 South
177.3 West at 120600 UTC.

Position poor.
Repeat position 14.7S 177.3W at 120600 UTC.

Cyclone moving EAST at about 15 knots and expected to curve
eastsoutheast in the next 12 to 24 hours.
Cyclone intensifying.

Expect sustained winds of 35 to 40 knots close to the centre.

Expect winds over 33 knots within 90 miles of the centre in the
sector from north through south to southwest and within 60 miles
elsewhere.

Forecast position near 15.6S 174.7W at 121800 UTC
and near 17.2S 172.7W at 130600 UTC.

All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to
send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use
normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc
at met dot gov dot fj.

This warning cancels and replaces warning 003

[HURAKAN]

Gale Warning 007 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 12/1253 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone TAM centre [988hPa] was located near 15.5 South
175.8 West at 121200 UTC.

Position poor.
Repeat position 15.5S 175.8W at 121200 UTC.

Cyclone moving SOUTHEAST at about 20 knots.
Cyclone intensifying.

Expect sustained winds of 40 knots close to the centre increasing to
45 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours.

Expect winds over 33 knots within 90 miles of the centre in the
sector from north through south to southwest
and within 60 miles of centre elsewhere.

Forecast position near 18.5S 173.1W at 130000 UTC
and near 21.7S 171.5W at 131200 UTC.

All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to
send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use
normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc
at met dot gov dot fj.

This warning cancels and replaces warning 005.


PRESSURE IS DOWN TO 988 MB/hPa and winds are up to 40 knots!

[P.K.]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A4 issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 12/1411 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone TAM centre [988hPa] was located near 15.5 South
175.8 West at 121200 UTC. Position poor based on HR MTSAT/EIR imagery
with animation and peripheral surface reports. Cyclone moving
southeast at about 20 knots. Cyclone intensifying. Maximum 10-minute
average winds near the centre estimated at about 40 knots increasing
to 45 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours, winds over 33 knots within 90
miles of the centre in the sector from north through south to
southwest and within 60 miles of centre elsewhere.

Deep convection has formed a cold overcast overlying the LLCC in the
past 6 hours, while the primary band to the east continues to mature
and feed into system. Dvorak analysis based on a .55 wrap gives a
DT=2.5, MET=3.0 and PAT=3.5. FT based on MET yields
T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24hrs. SST around 29C. CIMSS indicates 10 to 20 knots
shear over the cyclone. Resultant shear over the cyclone is currently
negligible. Conditions are favourable for further intensification of
Tam in the next 12 to 24 hours as it is steered southeastwards by
deep environmental northwesterlies.

FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 130000 UTC near 18.5S 173.1W mov SE at 20 kt with 45
kt close to the centre
24hrs valid at 131200 UTC near 21.7S 171.2W mov SE at 20 kt with 45
kt close to the centre

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 140000 UTC near 27.4S 169.1W mov SE at 30 kt with 45
kt close to the centre
48hrs valid at 141200 UTC near 33.6S 166.5W mov SE at 35 kt with 45
kt close to the centre

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone TAM will
be issued around 122000 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Gale Warning 009 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 12/1915 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone TAM centre [987hPa] was located near 16.0 South
175.0 West at 121800 UTC.

Position poor.
Repeat position 16.0S 175.0W at 121800 UTC.

Cyclone moving southeast at about 15 knots.
Cyclone intensifying.

Expect sustained winds of 45 knots close to the centre.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 90 miles of the centre in the
sector from north through south to southwest and within 60 miles of
centre elsewhere.

Forecast position near 19.7S 172.9W at 130600 UTC
and near 24.4S 172.2W at 131800 UTC.

All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to
send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use
normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc
at met dot gov dot fj.

This warning cancels and replaces warning 007.


PRESSURE DOWN 1 MB AND WINDS NOW UP TO 45 KNOTS!

[HURAKAN]

12/1422 UTC 16.0S 174.8W T2.5/2.5 99P -- South Pacific Ocean

DVORAK ESTIMATES A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM!

[MiamiensisWx]

It is looking fairly good right now on imagery!

[MiamiensisWx]

The JTWC now has a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert up for this storm!

[P.K.]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A5 issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 12/2024 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone TAM centre [987hPa] was located near 16.0 South
175.0 West at 121800 UTC. Position poor based on HR MTSAT/EIR imagery
with animation and peripheral surface reports. Cyclone moving
southeast at about 15 knots. Cyclone intensifying. Maximum 10-minute
average winds near the centre estimated at about 45 knots. Winds over
33 knots within 90 miles of the centre in the sector from north
through south to southwest and within 60 miles of centre elsewhere.

LLCC located under southeast edge of CDO. Deep convection erupted
past 6 hours and increased spatially. Overall organisation generally
steady. Primary band to the east continues to be sheared off. Dvorak
analysis based on .6 wrap thus T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24hrs. SST around 29C.
CIMSS indicates 10 to 20 knots shear over the cyclone. Tam lies under
divergent 250-hpa region. Cyclone currently steered southeast by deep
mean layer northwesterlies. Conditions are favourable for further
intensification of Tam in the next 12 to 24 hours. Consensus track
gradually takes Tam towards the south-southeast after the next 24
hours.

FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 130600 UTC near 19.7S 172.9W mov SE at 20 kt with 45
kt close to the centre
24hrs valid at 131800 UTC near 24.4S 172.2W mov SE at 20 kt with 45
kt close to the centre

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 140600 UTC near 28.7S 172.7W mov S at 22 kt with 45 kt
close to the centre
48hrs valid at 141800 UTC near 33.7S 171.0W mov SE at 33 kt with 45
kt close to the centre

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone TAM will
be issued around 130200 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

WTPS21 PGTW 122000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/121951ZJAN2006//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
210 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.0S 175.9W TO 21.0S 169.2W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM­
AGERY AT 121730Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.3S 174.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.8S
175.7W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.2S 174.2W, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DEPICTED IN THE 120831Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE PASS. LOCAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS VERIFY SURFACE WINDS IN
THE VICINITY OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITH FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH A GRADIENT OF INCREASED
VERTICAL SHEAR TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION AND ORGANIZATION
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
132000Z.//





LOOKING GOOD!

[MiamiensisWx]

[HURAKAN]

Gale Warning 010 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 13/0102 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone TAM centre [987hPa] was located near 17.0 South
173.2 West at 130000 UTC.
Position poor.
Repeat position 17.0S 173.2W at 130000 UTC.

Cyclone moving southeast at 15 knots but expected to accelerate to
about 20 knots.

Expect sustained winds of 45 knots close to the centre.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 100 miles of the centre in the
sector from north through east to southwest and within 60 miles of
centre elsewhere.

Forecast position near 22.6S 171.4W at 131200 UTC
and near 27.4S 172.3W at 140000 UTC.

All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to
send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use
normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc
at met dot gov dot fj.

This warning cancels and replaces warning 009.

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/121951ZJAN2006//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (TAM) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 17.0S 172.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 172.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 19.4S 170.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 22.4S 169.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 25.7S 168.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 29.1S 166.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 172.1W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (TAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
200 NM SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA HAS TRACKED
EAST- SOUTHEAST AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 06P
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY IMPROVE AND TRANSLATE RAPIDLY. TC 06P
WILL PEAK IN INTENSIY LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT
ENTERS AN ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 121951ZJAN2006
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 122000)
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 09 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z AND 140300Z.//

TAM IS NOW BEING TRACKED BY THE JTWC AND THIS IS THE FIRST ADVISORY!

[P.K.]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A7 issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 13/0759 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone TAM centre [987hPa] was located near 18.2 South
171.0 West at 130600 UTC. Position poor based on HR MTSAT/EIR imagery
with animation, 0605 SSMI UTC pass and peripheral surface reports.
Cyclone moving eastsoutheast at about 20 knots and expected to curve
southeast and accelerate to 25 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds
near the centre estimated at about 45 knots. Winds over 33 knots
within 100 miles of the centre in the sector from north through south
to southwest and within 60 miles of centre elsewhere.

Tam continues to maintain deep convection close to the LLCC. Shear
increasing over system but the increased translational speed of the
system is expected to result in negligible resultant shear in the
short term. Dvorak analysis based on .4 wrap gives DT=2.5, MET=3.0
and PAT=3.0. FT based on MET yields T3.0/3.0/S1.0/24hrs. SST around
29C. Tam lies under a divergent 250-hpa region ahead of an
approaching trough. Cyclone currently steered southeast by deep
environmental northwesterlies. Consensus track gradually takes Tam
towards the south-southeast with decreasing chances of
intensification.

FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 131800 UTC near 21.9S 169.4W mov SSE at 25 kt with 45
kt close to the centre
24hrs valid at 140600 UTC near 27.0S 168.6W mov S at 25 kt with 45 kt
close to the centre

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 141800 UTC near 31.8S 168.8W mov S at 26 kt with 40 kt
close to the centre
48hrs valid at 150600 UTC near 35.0S 168.0W mov SSE at 30 kt with 30
kt close to the centre

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone TAM will
be issued around 131400 UTC.

[P.K.]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A8 issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 13/1358 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone TAM centre [987hPa] was located near 20.0 South
170.8 West at 131200 UTC. Position poor based on HR MTSAT/EIR imagery
with animation and peripheral surface reports. Cyclone moving
southsoutheast at about 20 knots and expected to accelerate to 25
knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at
about 45 knots. Winds over 33 knots within 100 miles of the centre in
the sector from north through south to southwest and within 60 miles
of centre elsewhere.

Shear continues to grow over Tam and recent satellite images indicate
convective tops are starting to get blown off to the southeast of the
LLCC. Dvorak analysis based on a shear pattern gives DT=3.0, MET=3.0
and PT=3.0. FT based on MET yields T3.0/3.0/S1.0/24hrs. SST around
29C. Tam remains under a divergent 250-hpa region ahead of an
approaching trough and this is expected to maintain deep convection
to the east and southeast of the LLCC. Cyclone currently steered by
deep environmental north to northwest winds. Consensus track takes
Tam towards the south-southeast with decreasing chances of
intensification.

FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 140000 UTC near 24.3S 169.5W mov SSE at 25 kt with 45
kt close to the centre
24hrs valid at 141200 UTC near 29.8S 169.4W mov S at 25 kt with 40 kt
close to the centre

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 150000 UTC near 36.2S 167.3W mov SSE at 30 kt with 35
kt close to the centre
48hrs valid at 151200 UTC near 42.9S 162.7W mov SE at 35 kt with 35
kt close to the centre

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone TAM will
be issued around 132000 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (TAM) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 19.8S 170.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S 170.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 24.3S 168.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 29.2S 167.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 34.4S 164.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 38.5S 158.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 20.9S 169.9W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (TAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM SOUTH
OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA HAS TRACKED SOUTHEAST AT 18 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS
BECOME DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND CONVECTION IS LIKELY SHEARED FROM
THE LLCC. SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE. TC 06P WILL TRANSITION TO
AN EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM AS IT LINKS WITH A TRANSIENT MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 09
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z AND 141500Z.

NO CHANGE!

[HURAKAN]

13/1452 UTC 22.4S 169.6W T3.0/3.0 TAM -- South Pacific Ocean


FINALLY FIJI AND DVORAK REACH EQUALITY!

[MiamiensisWx]

On imagery, it has good outflow and convection!

[HURAKAN]