SOUTH PACIFIC: Tropical Cyclone Jim (10P)

[P.K.]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0709 UTC 28 January 2006

STORM WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
Tropical cyclone Jim with a central pressure of 985 hectopascals located at
280600 UTC near 17.3 south 151.1 east and moving east at 10 knots. Position
fair.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 50 nautical miles of the cyclone centre in the southwest quadrant and 80
nautical miles in other quadrants.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds to 35/45 knots. Very rough seas rising high to very high during
the next 12 hours. Moderate to Heavy swells.

Winds increasing further to 55/60 knots early Sunday within 30 nautical miles of
centre. Seas very high and heavy swells.

Forecast position at 281800UTC 17.1 degrees south and 152.6 degrees east with
central pressure 975 hPa and maximum winds to 60 knots.

Forecast position at 290600UTC 16.7 degrees south and 154.5 degrees east with
central pressure 965 hPa and maximum winds to 70 knots.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.

WEATHER BRISBANE

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING/280752ZJAN2006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JIM) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 17.3S 150.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 150.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 17.0S 152.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 16.8S 154.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 16.6S 156.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 17.0S 159.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 19.0S 165.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 151.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM
EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
280600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z
AND 290900Z.



JIM IS GETTING STRONGER!

[HURAKAN]

28/0833 UTC 16.9S 150.7E T3.0/3.0 JIM -- South Pacific Ocean

[HURAKAN]

THE "WIMP" CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF TRYING TO EXIST THAT CATEGORY!

[senorpepr]

I was having computer issues yesterday, so I was unable to upload the S2K Worldwide Tropical Update to feature Jim. I'll try and add it in a few hours.

Remind me again... if Jim enters Fiji's AOR (east of 160°E), this will become Vaianu, right?

[P.K.]

Yes that is the next name for Fiji.

[senorpepr]

Links regarding TC Jim (04U / 10P) from both BoM and JTWC have been added to the S2K Worldwide Tropical Updates.

http://tropicalupdate.storm2k.org/
http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/spac.htm

[P.K.]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1842 UTC 28 January 2006

HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
Tropical cyclone Jim with a central pressure of 984 hectopascals located at
281800 UTC near 17.0 south 153.3 east and moving east northeast at 8 knots.
Position fair.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 100 nautical miles of the cyclone centre.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds 35/45 knots within 100 nm of centre. Maximum winds to 50knots
near the centre gradually increasing to 65 knots over the next 24 hours.

Very rough seas rising high to very high during the next 24 hours. Moderate to
heavy swells.

Forecast position at 290600UTC 16.6 south and 154.9 east with central pressure
980 hPa and maximum winds to 55 knots.

Forecast position at 291800UTC 16.8 south and 157.0 east with central pressure
970 hPa and maximum winds to 65 knots.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.

WEATHER BRISBANE

[wxmann_91]

THE "WIMP" CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF TRYING TO EXIST THAT CATEGORY!

It looks better so yes it is trying to exit that category and not exist in that category.

[MiamiensisWx]

Looking fairly good!

[HURAKAN]

BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 0500 EST on Sunday the 29th of January 2006

At 4am EST Sunday, Tropical Cyclone Jim, Category 2 with central pressure
984 hPa, was located near 17.0S 153.3E, about 740 km east of Innisfail, and was
moving to the east at 10 km/hr. The cyclone is expected to continue to move to
the east towards New Caledonia.

Tropical Cyclone Jim poses no threat to the Queensland coast.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 10am EST on Sunday 29 January.

[HURAKAN]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0025 UTC 29 January 2006

HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
Tropical cyclone Jim with a central pressure of 982 hectopascals located at
290000UTC near 16.6 south 154.4 east and moving east northeast at 10 knots.
Position fair.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 100 nautical miles of the cyclone centre.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds 35/45 knots within 100 nm of centre. Maximum winds to 50 knots
near the centre gradually increasing to 65 knots over the next 24 hours.

Very rough seas rising very high to phenomenal during the next 24 hours.
Moderate to heavy swells.

Forecast position at 291200UTC 16.4 south and 156.0 east with central pressure
975 hPa and maximum winds to 60 knots.

Forecast position at 300000UTC 17.1 south and 158.7 east with central pressure
965 hPa and maximum winds to 70 knots.



REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.

WEATHER BRISBANE

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JIM) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 16.8S 153.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 153.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 16.4S 155.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 16.4S 157.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 16.7S 159.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 17.7S 162.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 20.0S 167.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 153.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE WARNING INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTIPLE
SATELLITE PLATFORMS, AND IS CONSISTENT WITH INTENSITIES FROM OTHER
REPORTING AGENCIES. TC 10P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARD THE EAST
AND REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z
IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND 292100Z.




THE LION IS ROARING HARDER AND HARDER BY THE MINUTE!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Warm spot developing...This might be the first strong cyclone of the south Pacific season.

[HurricaneBill]

I think it retains the name Jim if it crosses into Fiji's area of responsibility.

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING/281352ZJAN2006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JIM) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 16.6S 154.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 154.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 16.5S 156.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 16.9S 158.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 17.9S 161.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 19.2S 164.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 22.0S 169.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 154.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 485 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED OVER
THE SYSTEM, RESULTING IN FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND CONSOLIDATION
OF CONVECTION AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 10P WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK EASTWARD INITIALLY, BUT BEGIN TO CURVE TOWARD THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST BEYOND 24 HOURS AS THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE REORIENTS. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z AND 300300Z.

A "HURRICANE" HAS BEEN BORN!

[HURAKAN]

Threat eases as cyclone moves offshore
From: AAP
January 29, 2006

QUEENSLAND'S first tropical cyclone this season has moved away from the coast and into the Coral Sea.

Tropical cyclone Jim intensified to a high category-two cyclone overnight.
A weather bureau spokesman said it was currently located 800km off the coast of Innisfail, south of Cairns.

It was expected become a severe category-three cyclone before it reached New Caledonia tomorrow, he said.

"There's a good chance of it heading towards New Caledonia," he said today.

"There's no threat to the Queensland coast."

But he said fresh to strong north-westerly monsoon winds were occurring through the Torres Strait and the northern Gulf of Carpentaria, causing abnormally high tides.
"The tides have been between two-thirds of a metre and .8 of a metre above normal, he said.

Cyclone Jim formed on Thursday morning in a monsoonal trough.

It has been responsible for a deluge across north Queensland that made the Haughton River, south of Townsville, break its banks on Friday.

It also flooded roads from the Bohle to Bowen.

[HURAKAN]

I DON'T SEE A TRACE OF A WIMP IN HERE!

[P.K.]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0702 UTC 29 January 2006

HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
Tropical cyclone Jim with a central pressure of 975 hectopascals located at
290600 UTC near 16.7 south 155.5 east and moving east at 9 knots. Position fair.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 180 nautical miles of the cyclone centre in the northwest quadrant,
within 130 nautical miles of the cyclone centre in the other quadrants.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds 35/45 knots within 130 nm of centre, extending out to 180 nm in
the northwest quadrant. Maximum winds to 60 knots near the centre steadily
increasing to 80 knots over the next 24 hours.

Very rough seas rising very high to phenomenal near the centre during the next
24 hours. Moderate to heavy swells.

Forecast position at 291800UTC 16.9 south and 157.7 east with central pressure
960 hPa and maximum winds to 75 knots.

Forecast position at 300600UTC 17.7 south and 160.2 east with central pressure
950 hPa and maximum winds to 80 knots.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.

WEATHER BRISBANE

[senorpepr]

FWIW... The JTWC advisory has the initial intensity slightly down a little...

WTPS31 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING/290752ZJAN2006//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JIM) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 16.2S 155.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 155.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 16.6S 157.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 17.6S 160.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 18.9S 163.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 20.5S 165.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 23.5S 168.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 156.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM EAST OF
CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A
SLIGHT DECREASE OF DEEP CONVECTION, AND THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
HAS WEAKENED. TC 10P IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY AN EQUATORIAL
RIDGE ORIENTED NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED
POLEWARD OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION. WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS,
TC 10P WILL BEGIN A SOUTHEAST TRACK AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FILLS AND
MOVES TOWARD NEW ZEALAND. THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS DIRECTION
THROUGH TAU 72. THE INTENSITY OF TC 10P WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AS
THE OUTFLOW CHANNEL BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED, HOWEVER THE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BY THE
LATER TAUS AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
290600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND
300900Z.//

NNNN