Long Range Forecast Model Discussion Thread

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Ugh now I'm starting to wish that model viewing past like 120 hours was banned from the public's view.

[terstorm1012]

While we are talking GFS output, the GFS is showing a tropical system in the BoC over the weekend...coming up from the Pacific.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/06/images/gfs_85v_096m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/06/images/gfs_85v_144m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/06/images/gfs_85v_168m.gif


As far as the other event...the GFS starts to show it in 240 hours in the western Caribbean. It then moves NNE towards SC in 300 hours. Granted...that's a long time away...and probably an anomaly. We'll see. I'm more interested in what the GFS is seeing move up from the Pacific in less than 5 days...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/06/images/gfs_85v_240m.gif

This is the answer I was looking for, thanks Air Force Met.

[BayouVenteux]

Ugh now I'm starting to wish that model viewing past like 120 hours was banned from the public's view.

I'm sure you're probably saying that in jest, though I've seen a few posts around here over the years that expressed that sentiment in earnest.

I think you'd agree however, that education, not censorship, is the preferable course of action. Newcomers to the subject of weather -- and tropical weather in particular -- don't automatically have a keen grasp on the various computer models and their proper use and context.

Rest assured, with a little help and self-observation, they usually seem to get some insight and understanding by the end of their first season around here!

[cycloneye]

[url=http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_336l.gif]12z GFS



I dont believe a bit a long range forecast beyond 7 days but for information to Christy the GFS latest run shows the low at the 5th and not the third of June.So Christy I took out the date from the title.[/url]

[DoctorHurricane2003]

I'm sure you're probably saying that in jest,

yup

[Rainband]

Ugh now I'm starting to wish that model viewing past like 120 hours was banned from the public's view.

Wow!!! Take a chill pill. If a post bothers you ignore it. Remember not everyone here has the same knowledge when it comes to weather. Some of your posts lately have surprised me.

[Stratosphere747]

Ugh now I'm starting to wish that model viewing past like 120 hours was banned from the public's view.

Wow!!! Take a chill pill. If a post bothers you ignore it. Remember not everyone here has the same knowledge when it comes to weather. Some of your posts lately have surprised me.

While the Dr.'s talk has been a little tough of late, the use of such long-range models has been addressed by almost every pro-met here and even the best amateurs ones as well, as being something to basically not use.

With the previous two seasons, most everyone is already a bit at unease, and using such long-range models IMO, begins to be a disservice, instead of an education.

Think about those that are lurkers, that have been impacted severely over the last few years, who use this site to get "up to date" information, and see a thread about a possible hurricane effecting their particular coast in "300" hours. It begins to be unfair to those said persons if there is no actual validity to the long-range forecast.

[Rainband]

Ugh now I'm starting to wish that model viewing past like 120 hours was banned from the public's view.

Wow!!! Take a chill pill. If a post bothers you ignore it. Remember not everyone here has the same knowledge when it comes to weather. Some of your posts lately have surprised me.

While the Dr.'s talk has been a little tough of late, the use of such long-range models has been addressed by almost every pro-met here and even the best amateurs ones as well, as being something to basically not use.

With the previous two seasons, most everyone is already a bit at unease, and using such long-range models IMO, begins to be a disservice, instead of an education.

Think about those that are lurkers, that have been impacted severely over the last few years, who use this site to get "up to date" information, and see a thread about a possible hurricane effecting their particular coast in "300" hours. It begins to be unfair to those said persons if there is no actual validity to the long-range forecast.

I was making a point here. Thanks for your input though. My comments had very little to do with the topic but were directed at behavior. Sorry for the confusion Scott

[Camille_2_Katrina]

actually... the topic was ACCUWEATHER says tropical storm to hit South Carolina
June 3rd... once the facts came out... the topic had to be changed...
Just another GFS thread....

[SouthFloridawx]

Ugh now I'm starting to wish that model viewing past like 120 hours was banned from the public's view.

Wow!!! Take a chill pill. If a post bothers you ignore it. Remember not everyone here has the same knowledge when it comes to weather. Some of your posts lately have surprised me.

While the Dr.'s talk has been a little tough of late, the use of such long-range models has been addressed by almost every pro-met here and even the best amateurs ones as well, as being something to basically not use.

With the previous two seasons, most everyone is already a bit at unease, and using such long-range models IMO, begins to be a disservice, instead of an education.

Think about those that are lurkers, that have been impacted severely over the last few years, who use this site to get "up to date" information, and see a thread about a possible hurricane effecting their particular coast in "300" hours. It begins to be unfair to those said persons if there is no actual validity to the long-range forecast.

Perhaps there should be a thread for long range forecast model discussion so all parties involved can be satisfied in this ever constant battle between good and evil ( ) The latter in the sentence was supposed to lighten things up a bit. For real though Perhaps This threads topic should be changed to,

"Long Range Forcast Model Discussion Here"

Or something similar to that. Seriously all concerned would then be happy. People not wishing to look at the long range forecast model discussion will not have to look at it and the board will not be cluttered up with many different threads concerning long range forcast model output.

What do you think?

[cycloneye]

Good deal SouthFloridawx.Christy I will change the title of thread.Those who like to discuss about long range model runs can come here and replie.If other members dont like the theme the best thing to do is not look at it.

[Rainband]

Good deal SouthFloridawx.Christy I will change the title of thread.Those who like to discuss about long range model runs can come here and replie.If other members dont like the theme the best thing to do is not look at it.

AMEN!!!!

[Aquawind]

Worthy of a reading and adding to the favorites of this subject.


http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

[SouthFloridawx]

Worthy of a reading and adding to the favorites of this subject.


http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

Done and done!

[terstorm1012]

Worthy of a reading and adding to the favorites of this subject.


http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

I see heat on the way for me. WOO HOO!!! break out the shorts! and pray that no stationary back door fronts decide to stall out and stay for awhile. They're not welcome.

[boca]

Accuweather is pure entertainment. I just wanted to make sure thats not bashing.

[cycloneye]

00z GFS at 384 hours Loop



This thread theme is only dedicated to post the long range runs from the global models so any member that does not like to follow these long range forecasts the simple thing to do is to not open this thread at all.For the long range forecast fans above is the 00z GFS loop which shows some areas of maybe weak lows but anything that looks to be the first named storm until June 8th.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS



Above is the 12z run of GFS at 384 hours which shows a low near the Yucatan.Again those who dont like to look at these very long range runs of the models dont open the link or not visit the thread.

[terstorm1012]

hmmmmm gfs model seem to be trying to initialize something. i know they do this all the time, but makes you wonder... gotta study up more on computer modeling.

is shear forecast to fall? any tropical waves that *could* be our model system exist now?

these are just questions i'm asking out of curiousity.

[SouthFloridawx]

I do like to watch the long range models to see what kind of rain I might get after 5 days. Kind of a long range forecast if you will. I would like to try to log those totals somehow and see how effective each consecutive run was for my location here in Delray Beach/Palm Beach County.