Very Alarming!!!

[Derek Ortt]

and nobody should be saying "its just a 2" as category 2 hurricanes have devastated the USA the last 3 seasons (Isabel, Frances, and Wilma when it emerged into the Atlantic)

even a category 2 hurricane is a very life threatening event, and if you get cat 2 winds, plan on not having a home remaining (and I mean real cat 2, not psuedo cat 2)

[Stormcenter]

It only takes cat 2 winds, or sometimes even high end cat 1 winds, to do a lot of damage. Every storm should be taken VERY seriously.

Very good post. I agree 100%.

[southerngale]

No...I have to disagree...it only takes a TS to cause a bunch of damage. Isabel, Alex, Charley, and Ophelia...all caused TS force winds no more here in Havelock...there were homes destroyed or had blue tarps because of "only a TS" even TD's can be deadly and damaging...

Allison! But that damage wasn't from the wind, just LOTS and LOTS of rain! It still goes to show you how deadly and costly a tropical storm can be though.

[southerngale]

I think that by far the most alarming attitude when it comes to hurricanes is "Oh, it's not going to hit here." There are a lot of people that are sure a hurricane is not coming to their area based on such scientific data as "the last one turned away." It's like they think the hurricane cares where they live and knows not to come to them. When I hear that attitude, I want to slap the person.

Ouch, I consider myself slapped. As much as I follow the tropics, I always sort of had that attitude. Why? Because most people who think that way are right. For the majority of the people following a particular storm, it does turn and go elsewhere. That's a bad way to look at things though, obviously. And after Rita, people around here are more concerned than ever before and know they don't always turn and hit somewhere else.

I'm now a season ticket holder to Holiday Inn in Fort Worth.

[dhweather]

While I believe there were isolated pockets of very top end 3 / bottm end 4 winds in Hancock County, Mississippi, all agree that there were sustained cat 3 winds.

The wind damage from Katrina, a cat 3 in Mississippi, was severe. There is no
such thing a "just a cat 3", if you've ever lived through one.

Well I am not so sure about that statement. May be if you are referring to the immediate coast, but according to the HRD (Hurricane Research Division)...most areas in Southern Mississippi only recieved Cat. 1-2 force winds from Katrina.

Here are the surface winds as Katrina moved across your area:

ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/pub/hrd/hwind/2 ... l02deg.png

ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/pub/hrd/hwind/2 ... l02deg.png

ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/pub/hrd/hwind/2 ... l02deg.png

**The Diamondhead area probably did recieve Cat. 2/3 force winds**

I live about 5 miles inland, but close to the water, there are large areas
of significant wind damage. We were certainly in the 3's, which did enough damage. There are some large areas, particularly near Pass Christian, that I really think got into the low cat 4's, there's a different
level of wind damage there.

[george_r_1961]

No...I have to disagree...it only takes a TS to cause a bunch of damage. Isabel, Alex, Charley, and Ophelia...all caused TS force winds no more here in Havelock...there were homes destroyed or had blue tarps because of "only a TS" even TD's can be deadly and damaging...

Allison! But that damage wasn't from the wind, just LOTS and LOTS of rain! It still goes to show you how deadly and costly a tropical storm can be though.

Kelly that kills me about people in Virginia. The focus on the storms wind and forget that even a weak TS can cause devastating floods. With Isabel the surge here caught a lot of ppl off guard and many refused to evacuate b/c they knew it would only be a Cat 1 or a strong TS here. We got no wind to speak of from Floyd but people a block from where I lived at the time had to be taken away on fire trucks because of the flooding. People need to focus a LOT more on surge and rain.

[/i]

[Opal storm]

and nobody should be saying "its just a 2" as category 2 hurricanes have devastated the USA the last 3 seasons (Isabel, Frances, and Wilma when it emerged into the Atlantic)

even a category 2 hurricane is a very life threatening event, and if you get cat 2 winds, plan on not having a home remaining (and I mean real cat 2, not psuedo cat 2)

I don't disagree with you about cat 2 winds being devastating, but I don't think they will destroy a entire house unless you live in a mobile home or a poorly built house.A strong well built home will remain standing (with some minor structural damage maybe) in cat 2 winds IMO.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is how I look at an approaching storm:

Tropical Depression = Not really worried, main threat would be heavy rain if it stalled.

Weak TS = Being inland, the most I would expect would be 15-30mph (may be 30-45mph if it went directly overhead) gusts. Heavy rain would be the biggest threat.

Strong TS = Being inland, the only time wind would worry me is if the storm is fast moving and is expected to go right over my area (in which case damaging wind gusts..over 58mph..may be possible). Otherwise, Rain would be the main concern.

Cat. 1 Hurricane = If the wind field was large, or if the center was expected to go over my area, I would be concerned about the possibility of TS force sustained winds and damaging (58mph+) gusts. Rain would also be a concern if the storm was slow or stalled.

Cat. 2 Hurricane = At this point, Hurricane force winds would be possible in my area if the storm was fast enough and/or large enough. My concern for the wind would probably trump my concern for rain at this point (unless the storm was a slow mover). Would not be surprised to see 75mph+ gusts in NW Houston from a landfalling Cat. 2.

Cat. 3 Hurricane = After landfall, a Cat. 3 Hurricane would probably still be able to deliver 70-90mph sustained winds and gusts to 95-115mph in NW Houston if hit head on (depending on the storm's speed). Wind would become my primary threat at this point as living through 105mph wind gusts in Hurricane Charley and seeing what 105mph wind gusts in Beaumont can do would be of alarm. Rains would be a threat if the storm was a slow mover.

Cat. 4 Hurricane = At this point, winds are of major concern inland. A Cat. 4 landfall on Galveston, then moving inland through Houston could bring 80-110mph sustained winds and gusts to 120-135mph through much of Houston. The damage this would cause would be insane.

Cat. 5 Hurricane = Do not even want to think about what would happen if a Cat. 5 made landfall of Galveston and then moved up through Houston. The damage from wind would far surpass anything the area would see from flooding. I would seriously debate whether or not to stay in this situation as 150mph+ wind gusts would not be out of the realm of possibility in Houston.

[vbhoutex]

One other thing people need to remember is that damage rises exponentially with the increase in wind speed, not at a steady rate. I don't remember the exact numbers, but that means a CAT2 would be x times more destructive than a CAT1, etc. and we aren't talking like 2x, were talking like 4x plus, etc. All the talk about changing the SS scale or adding to it is needless imo. I would definitley support an additional surge information(possible destructive potential?) being added to the current small explanations.

As far as the gusts are concerned in your post EWG, aren't they a little on the low side based on a normal scale of what gusts can be expected that I have seen alluded to here at S2K in other posts(I'm too lazy to go look for it). I know during Alica we had sustained like you said in NW Houston(on the low end of that), and possibly gusts close to what you state, so overall I can't disagree with much of what you said.

[jasons2k]

EWG, that is very similiar to how I feel, being about 75-80 miles inland. My biggest concern is all the pine trees - a landfalling Cat. 1 or Cat. 2 could topple a lot trees even up where we are, depending on its speed/size, etc.

I'm not overly concerned with flooding as I'm not in a floodplain and we have excellent drainage - although another Allison would put it to the test.

Last year, the day before Rita, I drove through my neighborhood and took lots of pictures. At the time it was extremely depressing. We had just moved here from Frisco (where the only trees are your builder-issued 2 sticks in the front yard) and we were very excited to be in the Woodlands. I drove around convinced that 2 days later they'd all be gone. I had a sick feeling that our beautiful neighborhood was about to be destroyed. Man did we get lucky.

[tailgater]

I don't think those charts are very accurate, because over here in Eastern Ascension parish it shows us getting only 45 mph winds, while I'm sure they reach at LEAST 60mph with gust of 80mph and I've been through a bunch storms here and in S Fla. and in the US Navy. They are probably just estimates and calculations from a few buoys and reporting stations which don't tell the whole story.

[curtadams]

One other thing people need to remember is that damage rises exponentially with the increase in wind speed, not at a steady rate. I don't remember the exact numbers, but that means a CAT2 would be x times more destructive than a CAT1, etc. and we aren't talking like 2x, were talking like 4x plus, etc.

I'm pretty sure it's 3X. Hard to google since all the terms are so common.

[Derek Ortt]

no, Boca Chris,

Cat 2 winds will destroy even a well built house. That is an upper F-1 tornado, approaching F2.

As for MS, I have to agree with the HRD maps in that most places only did get cat 2 winds, though some did get low end cat 3, and no areas came close to cat 4. That just illustrates how "just a 2 or just a marginal 3" can totally devastate an entire area from a wind vantagepoint alone.

I wish the HRD Katrina analysis would be given more publicity, as it would really serve as a wakeup call for the entire coastline that even winds below major hurricane force will bring destruction beyond comprehension

[Opal storm]

no, Boca Chris,

Cat 2 winds will destroy even a well built house. That is an upper F-1 tornado, approaching F2.

So you are saying that my house (which is a newly built brick house) is going to be completely obliterated if it comes in contact with sustained cat 2 winds?Sorry I just have a hard time believing that.

[Derek Ortt]

let me ask you this


if an F1 tornado hit your house, would you expect it to survive?

[Opal storm]

let me ask you this


if an F1 tornado hit your house, would you expect it to survive?

Yes,if I were in the center of the house.Plus I've seen houses that have survived F1 tornadoes.

I'm not trying to downplay cat 2 winds,I've been through cat 1 winds and the structural damage was really low for most well built homes here in Pensacola during Ivan.I just can't imagine cat 2 winds totally leveling a house that took no real structural damage from cat 1 winds.I can see old run down houses being destroyed easily (even in cat 1 winds),but from what I've seen brick homes usually stand much better against wind.

[SouthFloridawx]

no, Boca Chris,

Cat 2 winds will destroy even a well built house. That is an upper F-1 tornado, approaching F2.

As for MS, I have to agree with the HRD maps in that most places only did get cat 2 winds, though some did get low end cat 3, and no areas came close to cat 4. That just illustrates how "just a 2 or just a marginal 3" can totally devastate an entire area from a wind vantagepoint alone.

I wish the HRD Katrina analysis would be given more publicity, as it would really serve as a wakeup call for the entire coastline that even winds below major hurricane force will bring destruction beyond comprehension

Ya know that is an excellent point. Eventhough a lot of hurricanes hit the United States we did not see a Upper Cat 3 to cat 5 winds last year.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here are some examples of F-1 tornado damage:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/meg/events/imag ... %20025.jpg
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lsx/event/4-27-02/ap27pix14.jpg
http://www.photolib.noaa.gov/noaa_produ ... aa6118.jpg
http://www.weathersa.co.za/Pressroom/Im ... age002.jpg

Based on these pictures, I do not think that F-1 force sustained wind speed (73-110mph - - Cat. 1/2 Hurricane) will DESTROY a structure, but heavy damage is certainly likely, especially to roofs, windows and doors.

[Extremeweatherguy]

no, Boca Chris,

Cat 2 winds will destroy even a well built house. That is an upper F-1 tornado, approaching F2.

As for MS, I have to agree with the HRD maps in that most places only did get cat 2 winds, though some did get low end cat 3, and no areas came close to cat 4. That just illustrates how "just a 2 or just a marginal 3" can totally devastate an entire area from a wind vantagepoint alone.

I wish the HRD Katrina analysis would be given more publicity, as it would really serve as a wakeup call for the entire coastline that even winds below major hurricane force will bring destruction beyond comprehension

Ya know that is an excellent point. Eventhough a lot of hurricanes hit the United States we did not see a Upper Cat 3 to cat 5 winds last year.

though if you asked most of the U.S. population in a survey, most would probably tell you that Katrina had Cat. 4 or 5 winds at landfall (as that is what the media made it seem like), and would be shocked if you told them it was actually a Cat. 3. Also, most of the people would also think that New Orleans got at least Cat. 3 force winds, because there was so much hype about New Orleans and the damage. What really needs to be done is get better meteorological information to the newscasters to be reported to the american public. May be if they all had to go through a 1-2 week hurricane training program we would get more accurate info.

[SouthFloridawx]

no, Boca Chris,

Cat 2 winds will destroy even a well built house. That is an upper F-1 tornado, approaching F2.

As for MS, I have to agree with the HRD maps in that most places only did get cat 2 winds, though some did get low end cat 3, and no areas came close to cat 4. That just illustrates how "just a 2 or just a marginal 3" can totally devastate an entire area from a wind vantagepoint alone.

I wish the HRD Katrina analysis would be given more publicity, as it would really serve as a wakeup call for the entire coastline that even winds below major hurricane force will bring destruction beyond comprehension

Ya know that is an excellent point. Eventhough a lot of hurricanes hit the United States we did not see a Upper Cat 3 to cat 5 winds last year.

though if you asked most of the U.S. population in a survey, most would probably tell you that Katrina had Cat. 4 or 5 winds at landfall (as that is what the media made it seem like), and would be shocked if you told them it was actually a Cat. 3. Also, most of the people would also think that New Orleans got at least Cat. 3 force winds, because there was so much hype about New Orleans and the damage. What really needs to be done is get better meteorological information to the newscasters to be reported to the american public. May be if they all had to go through a 1-2 week hurricane training program we would get more accurate info.

There is one thing about people that I noticed. People are really apt to listen to the media and totally believe what they say without question. Also sometimes when I try to explain things to people they just don't comprehend what I'm saying. I'm not saying all people but, most people. Most people think they have a good comprehension of weather/hurricanes but, compared to what I know it is very very little and compared to what a pro-met knows that is like comparing a marble to a tractor trailer.