Preview of Gray's steering pattern forecast... read

[Killjoy12]

I'm not sure you're interpreting that data correctly. I believe the TS 85% chance is for the entrie Region, which is the green area. I believe the county itself is listed in the last section.

[clfenwi]

Here's the transcript

The part being discussed came from MSNBC's chief meteorologist, Sean Mclaughlin.

MCLAUGHLIN: All right, Max Mayfield said it again, We need to be prepared, Joe. And of course, he comes here and he starts to draw where landfall probabilities are. Let‘s talk about landfall probabilities. And we have another chart to think of.

Right there, I drew in the Gulf Coast. What is their chance that one major hurricane, a category three or higher, could actually make landfall? And right now, the Gulf Coast is at a 47 percent chance of one major hurricane making landfall. The East Coast—that includes the state of Florida all the way up through the Northeast—that percentage of landfall is 64 percent, that a 64 percent chance that one major hurricane may make landfall on the Eastern Seaboard.

On average, Joe, it‘s about a 31 percent chance. So statistics are leaning towards a possible landfall of one major hurricane during this long season on the Eastern Seaboard.

That‘s one prediction from Dr. William Gray (ph). That‘s his team out of the Colorado State University. He‘s going to update that to hurricane forecasts four times during the year. But today, the big news out of the National Hurricane Center was, Get ready, it‘s going to be another above-normal year.

The numbers he cites are apparently from the April 2006 forecast (Specifically, table 9)

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I noticed that too. I think those are APRIL NUMBERS, not the new May ones.

[MiamiensisWx]

The graphic I saw was NOT the April numbers. This graphic was from Colorado State University and was more specific and divided up in regions.

[clfenwi]

Here's link to the video

The image shows up at the 4:50 mark

Screenshot

[Extremeweatherguy]

The thing about that MSNBC map is it makes it seem like SW and NE Florida, the mid Atlantic, and the TX/LA border are all really safe this year. This can be misleading to the everyday viewer in making them think there area will be safe. This may also lead to some thinking the storm MUST turn at the last minute and spare them, because their area was not suppose to get hit.

[SouthFloridawx]

Here's link to the video

The image shows up at the 4:50 mark

Screenshot

Now that's some good research there buddy. We are a bunch of nuts... that is something I would think of too. But, seriously good job.

Also good job capeverdewave on finding it in the first place. I didn't notice it.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I'm not sure you're interpreting that data correctly. I believe the TS 85% chance is for the entrie Region, which is the green area. I believe the county itself is listed in the last section.

your right. Even so, Harris County itself still has about two times the normal risk from all areas this year. The chance of Hurricane force winds in the county this year is nearly 2% (up from an average of 0.7%), and the chance of TS force winds in the county is 4.5% (up from an average of 2.3%). These numbers will likely all be updated in Gray's upcoming forecast however, so things could go up or down.

[SouthFloridawx]

Ok I got a question here. If above normal temps are forecasted for the next couple of weeks in the Eastern ConUS, does that mean that there is a ridge sitting in the atlantic pumping warm air in from south?

An example of this would be the 144 Hour forecast from gfs.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr

[BayouVenteux]

The image shows up at the 4:50 mark

OK. Is it just me or is this how those zones / percentages on that linked MSNBC map read?:

(locations approximate)
Brownsville, TX to Galveston, TX / 43%
Galveston, TX to Intercoastal City, LA / 12%
Intercoastal City, LA to Destin/Ft. Walton, FL 48%
Destin / Ft. Walton, FL to Tampa, FL / 19%
Tampa, FL to Naples, FL...no percentage listed!!?
Naples, FL to Ft. Lauderdale, FL / 34%
Ft. Lauderdale, FL to Charleston, SC / 11%
Charleston, SC to Newport News-Hampton, VA area / 57%
Newport News-Hampton, VA to New York City...no percentage listed!?
New York City to Boston, MA / 15%

After looking at that, I think I'll wait until the CSU group officially publishes their probabilities. Looks like typical sloppy TV journalism/graphics.

[jasons2k]

Now I'm as confused as ever. The 12% for SE Texas/SW LA is the complete opposite from the site posted by Rainband.

Oh well, I don't put any faith into these zone forecasts anyway. Won't really matter until we get a storm to track, then we can worry about where it's gonna go...

[Steve]

>>Intercoastal City, LA to Destin/Ft. Walton, FL 48%

That's what I saw too. And my parish is at 107% for named storms whatever that means. We've also had 75 in the 99-100 year period from 1900-1999. So chances are, SC/SE LA will see action based on the guesses.

Steve

[skysummit]

...and that's why I don't pay any attention to those maps.

[SouthFloridawx]

Seriously can someone answer my question?

Ok I got a question here. If above normal temps are forecasted for the next couple of weeks in the Eastern ConUS, does that mean that there is a ridge sitting in the atlantic pumping warm air in from south?

An example of this would be the 144 Hour forecast from gfs.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr

[Steve]

Probability of 1 or more NS strike: 107.4% (Average = 55.1%)
Probability of a hurricane strike: 56.8% (Average = 29.1%)
Probability of a major hurricane strike: 30.2% (15.5%)

Steve

[cajungal]

>>Intercoastal City, LA to Destin/Ft. Walton, FL 48%

That's what I saw too. And my parish is at 107% for named storms whatever that means. We've also had 75 in the 99-100 year period from 1900-1999. So chances are, SC/SE LA will see action based on the guesses.

Steve

Glad to see you posting Steve! Guess you rested up from all those cool whip shots! LOL. Yeah, Intercoastal City, LA to Destin at 48% I guess so. That is a LOT of coastline covered. Grand Isle, Louisiana is the in the top listing of area to get hit time and time again by a storm.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Probability of 1 or more NS strike: 107.4% (Average = 55.1%)
Probability of a hurricane strike: 56.8% (Average = 29.1%)
Probability of a major hurricane strike: 30.2% (15.5%)

Steve

It looks like they just took most of the Gulf coast region and multiplied their averages by ~2.

[JPmia]

I have become immune to maps like that b/c we in South FL are always listed as a "higher probability." I am sure you folks up LA and NC areas feel the same way. I like how they had to point out NYC.

[ROCK]

On that interactive map you need to select the info. button on the upper right hand side and then (after selecting it) click on your county. A little info. box will then come up.

According to the map...here is what Harris Co., TX should see this year:

Probability of a TS strike: 85.4% (Average = 43.8%)
Probability of a hurricane strike: 56.8% (Average = 29.1%)
Probability of a major hurricane strike: 24.8% (Average = 12.7%)

WOW! What this means is that Dr. Gray thinks that Harris Co. has a VERY LIKELY chance of seeing at least a TS this season and a LIKELY chance of seeing at least a Cat. 1/2 hurricane. He also is predicting a 1 in 4 chance of a major hurricane hitting the area. These numbers are amazing and about 2 times the usual risk to the area. Based on this, I would say that Harris County has a decent chance of being hit hard this season!

thanks for the good news....

[MWatkins]

Hi Cape,

I grabbed the XL spreadsheet from the transtech page. This looks like hand anaylsis of the landfall probabilities that are updated with their forecasts. It's good analysis and probably could be inferred to determine what the pattern forecast is going to look like, but the actual numbers appear to be matching up with the numbers they put out with the April outlook.

The way I understand it, I believe they will actually be issuing pattern maps with that paticular discussion, including probably where they believe the Bermuda and Azores higs are going to set up.

But hey that's a very good example of somebody from teh media who understands probabilities instead of issuing a deterministic forecast or a confusing, self created anomaly may which puts the Canada in red and southeast Florida in green.

Thanks for bringing up this topic, I'm looking forward to reading their forecast a week from Thursday.

MW