TS Aletta,Sat. Images,Comments,Models,Advisories,Etc. Thread

[P.K.]

Do you have mark-up maps for the Eastern Pacific?

http://earth.google.com/ Thats what I use for the other basins when doing that sort of thing.

[CrazyC83]

Do you have mark-up maps for the Eastern Pacific?

I don't see any.. Looks like we should put that on the to do list.

Agreed, plus one for the CPac...

[StormScanWx]

I wonder how long Aletta will last! NHC has the 5-day forecast though, so at least that long I assume.

[CrazyC83]

I wonder how long Aletta will last! NHC has the 5-day forecast though, so at least that long I assume.

If it does not make landfall, I'd give it 5-8 days. If it does make landfall, 48-72 hours.

[Aquawind]

Some Serious Soakage with the little movement forecast..

[CrazyC83]

Some Serious Soakage with the little movement forecast..

Yep - I'd say the heavy rainfall is the main threat, regardless of threat at landfall or on close approach (even if it is a 20-knot depression)...

[Ivan14]

No kidding thous poor people in Mexico will have to deal with floods and mudslides.

[tailgater]

GFDL has it making landfall in 30 hrs. with 43 knot winds.



This is the latest a storm has formed in the EPAC since 1999, 2000-2005 the first storms developed between May 17 to may 25.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Tropical storm Aletta,Update 1#/12pm pst/5-27-2006...

Looks like it is developing a cdo. Watch for at least some strengthing. I would say 40 knots now. Increasing to 45 knots by 6 hours. expect this to strengthen to 55 knots by 24 hours. Long range expect a decrease in upper level shear. A movement slowlly east-northeastward or northeastward is expected over the next 12 to 24 hours. Models forecast after 24 to 30 hours a turn more to the northwest or west. But there is a growing chance of a landfall around 36 to 42 hours. Chances of this becoming a hurricane is fair.

Wind forecast
0 40 knots
6 45 knots
12 50 knots
24 55 knots

Forecaster matthew

This is unoffical

[tailgater]

Looking at the latest Vis. loop, I would not be surpised to see the center reform father east again.

[HURAKAN]

http://i21.photobucket.com/albums/b300/ ... SEASON.png

[tailgater]

They moved the #1 floater over this system.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html

[MiamiensisWx]

Will the next advisory come out in around 15 to 20 minutes?

[RattleMan]

Will the next advisory come out in around 15 to 20 minutes?

I think it's coming out at 2 PM PT, or about 56 minutes away.

[hurricanefloyd5]

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 272007
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALETTA ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006
200 PM PDT SAT MAY 27 2006

...ALETTA CONTINUES TO MOVE STEADILY TOWARD THE MEXICAN RIVIERA...
...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND WATCH ISSUED...

AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM
PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO TECPAN DE GALEANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 2 PM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM EAST OF PUNTA MALDONADO
EASTWARD TO PUERTO ESCONDIDO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN
EFFECT FROM WEST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
ALETTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.5 WEST
OR ABOUT 100 MILES...160 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO AND
ABOUT 135 MILES...220 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO.

ALETTA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...
MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

OUTER RAIN BANDS ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ONSHORE TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO.

REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...15.6 N...100.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
PM PDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

[hurricanefloyd5]

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 272007
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006
200 PM PDT SAT MAY 27 2006

BANDING FEATURES HAVE CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE A
CONSENSUS T2.5/35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB USING A SHEAR PATTERN.
THUS...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN NAMED TROPICAL STORM ALETTA. AN
IMPRESSIVE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BEEN NOTED IN BOTH
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY MOST OF THE DAY...BUT MID-LEVEL SHEAR
UNDERCUTTING THE OTHERWISE IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS
RESULTED IN THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BECOMING EXPOSED JUST
WEST OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTION.

THE BROAD CENTER OF ALETTA HAS REFORMED FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST...
WHICH MAKES THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 040/03 KT SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. IT APPEARS...HOWEVER... THAT ALETTA HAS MOVED NORTH OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS NOW...SO A GENERAL SLOW NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. AFTER
THAT...STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME ILL-DEFINED. THE
LONE EXCEPTION IS THE NOGAPS MODEL WHICH CONTINUES TO INSIST THAT
ALETTA WILL CROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WHILE THE
MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY END UP DOING THAT...IT IS
HIGHLY UNLIKELY THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION COULD MAKE IT OVER
THE RATHER FORMIDABLE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAIN RANGE. THE CONSENSUS OF
THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS... INCLUDING THE GFDL MODEL... CALLS FOR
ALETTA TO MOVE NEAR AND POSSIBLY JUST INLAND ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
COAST OF MEXICO BY 48 HOURS...AND THEN TURN WESTWARD BACK OVER WATER
AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TWO
TRACKS...AND IS CLOSE TO THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL.

WHILE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED... WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
MID-LEVEL SHEAR CONTINUES TO DISPLACE THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE
EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
AGREE THAT BY 36 HOURS...VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO
LESS THAN 10 KT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SLOW STRENGTHENING
TO OCCUR UP UNTIL ALETTA NEARS LAND IN 36-48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 24 HOURS...
AND THEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THEREAFTER WHEN ALETTA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
UNDERNEATH THE LARGE-SCALE 200 MB RIDGE AXIS.

DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS AT
...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO TECPAN DE GALEANA MEXICO.

FORECASTER STEWART


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/2100Z 15.6N 100.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 28/0600Z 16.0N 100.2W 40 KT
24HR VT 28/1800Z 16.3N 99.9W 45 KT
36HR VT 29/0600Z 16.7N 100.3W 50 KT
48HR VT 29/1800Z 16.9N 100.7W 50 KT
72HR VT 30/1800Z 17.0N 101.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 31/1800Z 16.8N 102.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 01/1800Z 16.5N 103.5W 55 KT

[tailgater]

LONE EXCEPTION IS THE NOGAPS MODEL WHICH CONTINUES TO INSIST THAT
ALETTA WILL CROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WHILE THE
MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY END UP DOING THAT...IT IS
HIGHLY UNLIKELY THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION COULD MAKE IT OVER
THE RATHER FORMIDABLE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAIN RANGE.
I'll be watching for that unlikely as it would be.

[whereverwx]

It looks like the CDO is expanding.

[Epsilon_Fan]

hello Aletta!

[MiamiensisWx]

The environment is becoming quite favorable for consolidation and outflow as shear is down to 10KT to 15KT and continues to steadily decrease... look here.