My 2006 Hurricane Season Forecast

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donsutherland1
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#21 Postby donsutherland1 » Sat Jun 03, 2006 6:07 pm

NCHurricane,

I hope I'm wrong, as well. Hopefully things won't be any worse than Ophelia (which never actually made landfall), but I'm quite concerned about the possibility of a storm more along the lines of a Fran or Diana.
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MiamiensisWx

#22 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sat Jun 03, 2006 6:14 pm

I feel the patterns are setting up that we may see a factors favor the possibility of potential Floyd-like scenario that passes closer to Florida and curves up along the coast and brushes North Carolina on the way northeast out. Long-range ridging and troughiness/NAO/other patterns may indicate the potential for something like this in the heart of the season.

You can already see hints of the Bermuda-Azores High complex getting established... SOI values should help this, too.
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NCHurricane
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#23 Postby NCHurricane » Mon Jun 05, 2006 4:29 pm

donsutherland1 wrote:NCHurricane,

I hope I'm wrong, as well. Hopefully things won't be any worse than Ophelia (which never actually made landfall), but I'm quite concerned about the possibility of a storm more along the lines of a Fran or Diana.


I understand and agree with you. Thanks again for the great summary and for your response to me as well. 8-)
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CHRISTY

#24 Postby CHRISTY » Mon Jun 05, 2006 4:43 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:I feel the patterns are setting up that we may see a factors favor the possibility of potential Floyd-like scenario that passes closer to Florida and curves up along the coast and brushes North Carolina on the way northeast out. Long-range ridging and troughiness/NAO/other patterns may indicate the potential for something like this in the heart of the season.

You can already see hints of the Bermuda-Azores High complex getting established... SOI values should help this, too.


there is now way to know were the bermuda will be established in 3 months from now...it all depends when a storm is threating if there is a trough of the east coast or if the high is strong the storm might continue west.These things change all the time.
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Stormtrack
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#25 Postby Stormtrack » Mon Jun 05, 2006 6:15 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:Luckily Texas has a lower chance of a major than NC or FL this year, but keep in mind that all it takes to cause destruction is a Cat. 1 or 2 hurricane. [/b]

Really it doesn't even have to be a Cat 1 to cause considerable destruction and deaths. Remember Tropical Storm Allison 5 years ago?
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Carolina_survivor
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#26 Postby Carolina_survivor » Mon Jun 05, 2006 6:47 pm

NCHurricane wrote:Thanks, Don. Very informative. 8-)

I hope your wrong on NC though. :wink:


I agree, neighbor!

But I do have this feeling about our being due one this year. (Not based on science, just a lifetime in coastal NC.)
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