Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

[Dean4Storms]

Don't know if this has been posted but here......


WHXX01 KWBC 081751
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL902006) ON 20060608 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060608 1800 060609 0600 060609 1800 060610 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.8N 88.2W 18.2N 88.0W 18.7N 88.1W 19.6N 88.9W
BAMM 17.8N 88.2W 18.3N 88.3W 18.7N 88.9W 19.2N 90.1W
A98E 17.8N 88.2W 18.5N 88.1W 19.2N 88.1W 20.4N 87.2W
LBAR 17.8N 88.2W 18.6N 88.2W 19.9N 88.6W 21.6N 89.4W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 28KTS 32KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 25KTS 26KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060610 1800 060611 1800 060612 1800 060613 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.0N 90.0W 24.0N 91.5W 26.3N 91.4W 27.7N 91.3W
BAMM 20.0N 91.5W 21.7N 93.8W 22.4N 95.5W 22.1N 97.8W
A98E 21.4N 87.3W 22.9N 87.5W 24.8N 87.3W 27.0N 85.1W
LBAR 23.4N 90.2W 27.2N 89.5W 28.4N 84.4W 29.7N 78.9W
SHIP 36KTS 42KTS 46KTS 49KTS
DSHP 32KTS 39KTS 42KTS 45KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.8N LONCUR = 88.2W DIRCUR = 355DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 16.6N LONM12 = 88.0W DIRM12 = 356DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 15.0N LONM24 = 88.3W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 15KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

$$

[HURAKAN]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_18Z.gif

The NHC indicates the low is stationary at the moment, let see what happens tomorrow.

[Opal storm]

So it looks like it will be a day or two before we see T.D#1 eh?A lot can change in that time frame,looks like a interesting weekend.

[JamesFromMaine2]

The Tropical Model plots for 90L


http://weather.net-waves.com/model.php

When I click on that link it can't load the picture I just get a red "X" so could you post it in a diffrent way so I can see it? Thanks in advance!

[HURAKAN]

So it looks like it will be a day or two before we see T.D#1 eh?A lot can change in that time frame,looks like a interesting weekend.

It looks like if something is going to develop, it will take place this weekend.

[Extremeweatherguy]

guys development is not expected at this time....word from the NHC.low remains overland.

yeah, no one is expecting development today. We are expecting it to occur around Sat. or Sun. when it emerges into the Gulf or BOC.

[MiamiensisWx]

The location of the developing LLC low may also be a key because, as the first trough pulls away and ridging builds in a bit from the northwest, it may result in a slow west to northwest movement of the system under the ridge as the second trough bypasses it. Remember that the key is not where the convection is, but the synoptics of the low and surrounding environment and where the true low is. This will surely play a big part in the factors, synoptics, and setups of this system and how it organizes and the movement/timing. Who agrees?

Right now, the developing and slowly consolidating low center is just off the Mexican/Belize coast in that vicinity. Don't focus on the movement of the convection; look carefully for the low center, which will be the true key. The position of the low center, synoptics, and the timing and intensity of those synoptics and the position of those synoptics - such as the building Texas ridge slowly into the west-central Gulf and as the first trough moves away - will be key factors. Who agrees?

[Dean4Storms]

Try this link, go to page and change invest to 90........


http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

[CHRISTY]

So it looks like it will be a day or two before we see T.D#1 eh?A lot can change in that time frame,looks like a interesting weekend.

It looks like if something is going to develop, it will take place this weekend.

yes i agree...the low is over land....i might say it might not survive!or it may also try to reform another one near the thunderstorms.

[HurricaneHunter914]

The weatherman in my area thinks this sytem might bring rain to Florida around Sat. or Sun. I hope so we need rain.

[max]

Try this link, go to page and change invest to 90........


http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

Thanks!


Works!

[southerngale]

guys development is not expected at this time....word from the NHC.low remains overland.

Yeah, that was just posted a few posts above yours.

[JamesFromMaine2]

Try this link, go to page and change invest to 90........


http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

ok thanks that works!

[Extremeweatherguy]

So it looks like it will be a day or two before we see T.D#1 eh?A lot can change in that time frame,looks like a interesting weekend.

It looks like if something is going to develop, it will take place this weekend.

yes i agree...the low is over land....i might say it might not survive!or it may also try to reform another one near the thunderstorms.

weak low pressure areas can usually live over land (as we see everyday over the U.S). Strong low pressure areas can be sheared apart over land. This low will likely survive the journey.

[MiamiensisWx]

yes i agree...the low is over land....i might say it might not survive!or it may also try to reform another one near the thunderstorms.

Actually, I think the low is right on or just off the coast, especially if you look closely at the loops.

Infra-red loop

Also, it is not uncommon in synoptics like this for the low to reform a short distance away, so even if the low is over land, it could reform just on or just off the coastline. I think we may be seeing the real low reforming on or just off the coastline.

[HURAKAN]

There is good reason for concern right now. In the days ahead, there is a chance we could see the first named storm of the 2006 hurricane season. An area of low pressure in the western Caribbean is aimed right at the part of the Gulf of Mexico that is a prime location for tropical storm formation in June. The water is certainly warm enough which allows for increased convection. More convective showers liberate more heat into the atmosphere. In turn, this establishes a better defined circulation by lowering the central pressure of the disturbance. Nothing may come of this, but the situation is ripe and will need to be watched closely the next couple of days.

Today's Discussion
Low pressure in the Northwest Caribbean is Starting to Organize
Posted: 8-JUN-2006 2:57pm EDT

By Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski



A broad area of low pressure that we have been watching and speculating on since Monday is showing some signs of organization. Ship reports and buoys in this area are showing pressure falls. At one point a ship was reporting a pressure down to 1005 millibars just off the coast of Belize. thinking is that a number of small low pressure areas are going to form in this area and move westward into Belize. To the north a large mass of showers and thunderstorms has formed. The quick change in the overall cloud movement and organization to this low is due to the gradual decrease in the upper level winds over this region. Strong north to northwest winds have been creating too much shear over this area for any organization. Now that the shear is decreasing we are seeing some signs of organization. We believe this feature will move north or northwest during the next 24-48 hours which could put it either in the Bay of Campeche or on the north or northeast coast of the Yucatan. Once away from the Yucatan this feature might have some chance for further development. Water temperatures just east of the Yucatan are very warm and the waters in the Bay of Campeche are also very warm. So, the main issue will be shear. Campeche faster than to the north of the Yucatan. So, if the feature moves more to the west or northwest it might have a better chance for organizing sooner than if it were to move due north. Computer models are showing various ideas on this and just about every model now shows some kind of low pressure area near the Yucatan by the end of this weekend. Our current feeling is that if the shear can drop off enough we could have a developing tropical system by the end of the weekend.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Or the center will reform under the convection.

[max]

So it looks like it will be a day or two before we see T.D#1 eh?A lot can change in that time frame,looks like a interesting weekend.

It looks like if something is going to develop, it will take place this weekend.

yes i agree...the low is over land....i might say it might not survive!or it may also try to reform another one near the thunderstorms.

weak low pressure areas can usually live over land (as we see everyday over the U.S). Strong low pressure areas can be sheared apart over land. This low will likely survive the journey.

Cool I didn't really know that! Good to know!

[JamesFromMaine2]

If this is in fact the same area we have been watching for a while now then its been surviving high shear for some time now I don't think it will really be killed by crossing land when its been surviving the shear all this time! lol

[Extremeweatherguy]

Or the center will reform under the convection.

chances are slim to none that will happen. Possible...but un-likely. Shear is much higher in the area of the convection.