511
ABNT20 KNHC 150243
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALBERTO...
WHICH IS NOW AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM... IS LOCATED
OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE COD
MASSACHUSETTS. THIS SYSTEM IS BECOMING A SIGNIFICANT GALE AREA AS
IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND
NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
FORECASTER STEWART
TWD and TWO - Please post the latest here.
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146196
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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HurricaneHunter914
- Category 5
- Posts: 4439
- Age: 31
- Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2006 7:36 pm
- Location: College Station, TX
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 150352
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 PM PDT WED JUN 14 2006
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
FORECASTER STEWART
$$
Now we have to worry about an EPAC system.
ABPZ20 KNHC 150352
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 PM PDT WED JUN 14 2006
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
FORECASTER STEWART
$$
Now we have to worry about an EPAC system.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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bvigal
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2276
- Joined: Sun Jul 24, 2005 8:49 am
- Location: British Virgin Islands
- Contact:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 150904
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT THU JUN 15 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALBERTO...
WHICH IS NOW AN EXTRATROPICAL GALE AREA... IS LOCATED SOUTH OF
CAPE COD MASSACHUSETTS.
A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND
NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
FORECASTER STEWART
$$
TWD out early this morning - completely missed getting to read the 2am!!!
000
AXNT20 KNHC 151058
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUN 15 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. THE POSITION OF THIS WAVE WAS ADJUSTED A BIT MORE TO THE
EAST OF THE 15/0000 UTC POSITION BASED ON THE CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY. ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED
IN THE ITCZ.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 15 KT
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WAS JUST EAST
OF THIS WAVE SIX HOURS AGO REMAINS IN MORE OR LESS THE SAME
LOCATION. THERE IS NO ONE DEFINITIVE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WHICH
HAS BEEN ACCOMPANYING THIS WAVE IN ITS WESTWARD MOVEMENT.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 74W/75W SOUTH OF
20N AND HAS BEEN MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT DURING THE LAST 24
HOURS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS FROM 15N TO 18N
BETWEEN 71W AND 76W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA.
THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 10N12W 7N25W 6N31W 6N46W 6N49W 5N60W. SCATTERED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND BETWEEN THE AFRICA COAST
AND 4N5W 3N14W 10N20W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 19W AND
21W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N BETWEEN
29W AND 36W...FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 40W AND 45W. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 44W AND 51W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 25N WEST OF 55W...
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER
FROM 18 TO 24 HOURS AGO HAS WORKED ITS WAY TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
NOW IS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
OF TEXAS. IT STILL IS SURROUNDED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
FOR THE MOST PART. NO DEEP THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT AT THIS MOMENT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN
STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN HAS
SHIFTED WESTWARD A BIT AND NOW COVERS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS RIDGE STILL HAS
MUCH OF THE SAME ORIENTATION AS IT HAD WHEN T.S. ALBERTO WAS
MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF...NOW RUNNING FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ONE CELL OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE WITHIN
120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N87W 22N91W 18N94W. THESE CLOUDS ARE
PART OF THE BAND OF MIDDLE TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE NOW AT THE
PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE WHICH HAS
SHIFTED WESTWARD FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A WIDER
SWATH OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IS NORTH OF 24N EAST OF
85W...MOVING FROM THE EASTERN GULF WATERS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE CLOUDS IN THIS AREA ARE THINNING
OUT WITH TIME. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE GULF
OF MEXICO-TO-WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE COVERS THE AREA NORTH
OF 25N WEST OF 55W.
THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
SOUTH OF 25N WEST OF 50W...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 16N79W...ABOUT
120 NM SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA. THIS LOW CENTER IS PART OF
A BROADER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH HAS BEEN WORKING ITS WAY
WESTWARD DURING THE LAST 48 HOURS OR SO. A LOW CENTER HAD BEEN
SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY A FEW DAYS AGO...AND A TROUGH WAS
IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA YESTERDAY STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN
HISPANIOLA SOUTHWESTWARD. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA AS THE
16N79W LOW CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NOW ARE FOUND NORTH OF 16N WEST OF 79W. A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM A 22N57W LOW CENTER TO
19N60W TO 18N68W TO THE 16N79W LOW CENTER. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 200 NM TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THIS
TROUGH. MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE NEAR THE 22N57W ATLANTIC OCEAN
LOW CENTER...FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 45W AND 58W. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO 20N
BETWEEN 64W AND 76W. THE STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST
OF NICARAGUA SIX HOURS AGO HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 13N WEST OF 75W.
THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 29N35W. CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 21N TO
35N BETWEEN 28W AND 50W. NO DEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 29N35W LOW CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS JUST NORTH OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS TO 31N23W. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 30N EAST OF 20W WITH A LOW
CENTER WEST OF PORTUGAL. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM 38N32W TO
A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 34N46W TO 29N58W TO 27N72W
INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N86W. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS NORTH OF
17N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. COAST.
$$
MT
ABNT20 KNHC 150904
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT THU JUN 15 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALBERTO...
WHICH IS NOW AN EXTRATROPICAL GALE AREA... IS LOCATED SOUTH OF
CAPE COD MASSACHUSETTS.
A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND
NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
FORECASTER STEWART
$$
TWD out early this morning - completely missed getting to read the 2am!!!
000
AXNT20 KNHC 151058
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUN 15 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. THE POSITION OF THIS WAVE WAS ADJUSTED A BIT MORE TO THE
EAST OF THE 15/0000 UTC POSITION BASED ON THE CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY. ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED
IN THE ITCZ.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 15 KT
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WAS JUST EAST
OF THIS WAVE SIX HOURS AGO REMAINS IN MORE OR LESS THE SAME
LOCATION. THERE IS NO ONE DEFINITIVE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WHICH
HAS BEEN ACCOMPANYING THIS WAVE IN ITS WESTWARD MOVEMENT.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 74W/75W SOUTH OF
20N AND HAS BEEN MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT DURING THE LAST 24
HOURS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS FROM 15N TO 18N
BETWEEN 71W AND 76W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA.
THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 10N12W 7N25W 6N31W 6N46W 6N49W 5N60W. SCATTERED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND BETWEEN THE AFRICA COAST
AND 4N5W 3N14W 10N20W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 19W AND
21W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N BETWEEN
29W AND 36W...FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 40W AND 45W. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 44W AND 51W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 25N WEST OF 55W...
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER
FROM 18 TO 24 HOURS AGO HAS WORKED ITS WAY TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
NOW IS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
OF TEXAS. IT STILL IS SURROUNDED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
FOR THE MOST PART. NO DEEP THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT AT THIS MOMENT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN
STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN HAS
SHIFTED WESTWARD A BIT AND NOW COVERS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS RIDGE STILL HAS
MUCH OF THE SAME ORIENTATION AS IT HAD WHEN T.S. ALBERTO WAS
MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF...NOW RUNNING FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ONE CELL OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE WITHIN
120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N87W 22N91W 18N94W. THESE CLOUDS ARE
PART OF THE BAND OF MIDDLE TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE NOW AT THE
PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE WHICH HAS
SHIFTED WESTWARD FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A WIDER
SWATH OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IS NORTH OF 24N EAST OF
85W...MOVING FROM THE EASTERN GULF WATERS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE CLOUDS IN THIS AREA ARE THINNING
OUT WITH TIME. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE GULF
OF MEXICO-TO-WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE COVERS THE AREA NORTH
OF 25N WEST OF 55W.
THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
SOUTH OF 25N WEST OF 50W...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 16N79W...ABOUT
120 NM SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA. THIS LOW CENTER IS PART OF
A BROADER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH HAS BEEN WORKING ITS WAY
WESTWARD DURING THE LAST 48 HOURS OR SO. A LOW CENTER HAD BEEN
SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY A FEW DAYS AGO...AND A TROUGH WAS
IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA YESTERDAY STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN
HISPANIOLA SOUTHWESTWARD. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA AS THE
16N79W LOW CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NOW ARE FOUND NORTH OF 16N WEST OF 79W. A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM A 22N57W LOW CENTER TO
19N60W TO 18N68W TO THE 16N79W LOW CENTER. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 200 NM TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THIS
TROUGH. MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE NEAR THE 22N57W ATLANTIC OCEAN
LOW CENTER...FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 45W AND 58W. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO 20N
BETWEEN 64W AND 76W. THE STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST
OF NICARAGUA SIX HOURS AGO HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 13N WEST OF 75W.
THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 29N35W. CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 21N TO
35N BETWEEN 28W AND 50W. NO DEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 29N35W LOW CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS JUST NORTH OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS TO 31N23W. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 30N EAST OF 20W WITH A LOW
CENTER WEST OF PORTUGAL. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM 38N32W TO
A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 34N46W TO 29N58W TO 27N72W
INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N86W. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS NORTH OF
17N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. COAST.
$$
MT
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-
HurricaneHunter914
- Category 5
- Posts: 4439
- Age: 31
- Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2006 7:36 pm
- Location: College Station, TX
This is for the EPAC.
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151007
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PDT THU JUN 15 2006
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
FORECASTER STEWART
$$
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150930
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU JUN 15 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0845 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W N OF 3N MOVING W AT 10 KT. SMALL FLARE
UP OF CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ POSSIBLY CAUSED BY WAVE OTHERWISE
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER LAND AREAS. NO ORGANIZATION.
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 106W FROM 4N-13N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. NO
CONVECTION ACTIVE AT THIS TIME.
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 119W FROM 3N-14N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. ITCZ
BOWS NWD ALONG 120W..POSSIBLY CAUSED BY WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ BETWEEN 116W AND 125W. NO ORGANIZATION.
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 140W FROM 2N TO 10N MOVING W AT 15 KT.
BROKEN MID CLOUDS ALONG WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
ALONG ITCZ. NO ORGANIZATION.
..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG...6N77W 7N92W 9N106W
11N118W 10N129W 5N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 6N83W
6N87W 7N94W 5N96W AND 6N97W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM OF
A LINE FROM 10N115W TO 10N127W TO 9N130W AND FROM 7N136W TO
6N140W.
LOW PRES NEAR 12N98W 1010 MB. SMALL BAND OF WEAK CONVECTION
WITHIN 30 NM E AND NE QUADRANTS OF CENTER.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA
NEAR 7N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 8N83W TO 9N85W AND FROM
13N88W TO 15N99W.
...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...
THE APPEARANCE OF MID LEVEL EASTERLIES OVER THE REGION IS A NEW
FEATURE TONIGHT.
AN ELONGATED W TO E UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 35N140W TO 27N120W
TO NRN MEXICO. THE RIDGE IS SEPARATING WESTERLIES TO THE N AND
EASTERLIES TO THE S. AN INVERTED TROUGH LIES OVER THE EXTREME NW
GULF WHERE THE EASTERLY FLOW CROSSES OVER THEN HEADS SW ACROSS
CENTRAL MEXICO TO BETWEEN 12N AND 22N AT 120W. THE EASTERLIES
THEN MOVE NW OVER ANOTHER INVERTED TROUGH ALONG 140W.
LATER DAY 1 THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS E TO 32N134W STILL
MAINTAINING A RIDGE AXIS EWD TO NRN MEXICO. THE EASTERLIES
CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE REGION BETWEEN 15N
AND 25N.
FOR DAY 2 THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER MOVES TO NEAR 31N132W AND
CONTINUES AN W TO E AXIS ACROSS NRN MEXICO. WESTERLIES ARE KEPT
N OF THE REGION WHILE EASTERLIES CONTINUE ON THE S SIDE OF THE
RIDGE BETWEEN 15N AND 25N.
SURFACE FEATURES...
ON THE SURFACE MAP TONIGHT THE PACIFIC HIGH IS CENTERED NW OF
THE REGION AND EXTENDS SE TO NEAR 15N110W. SSMI AND QUIKSCAT
CONFIRM WHAT THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 06Z FOR NE TRADES S OF
THE RIDGE AXIS. BOTH SHOW NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT W OF 130W. ALSO A
NLY FLOW ALONG THE BAJA COAST IS A LITTLE STRONGER IN THE
QUIKSCAT THAN SSMI BY ABOUT 5 KT. A WEAK LOW WAS NEAR 12N98W
MOVING WNW 10 TO 15 KT.
LATER DAY 1 LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH THE
PACIFIC RIDGE CONTINUING TO PRODUCE NE TRADES W OF 130W OF 20 KT
MAINLY S OF 22N AND A NLY WIND E OF 125N TO THE BAJA COAST OF 20
KT N OF 25N. THE GFS MODEL DOES NOT LOCK ON TO THE WEAK LOW BUT
RATHER TRACKS SOMETHING ALONG 10N NEAR 98W.
FOR DAY 2 THE GFS MODEL SHOWS THE PACIFIC RIDGE WEAKENING SOME
WITH NE TRADES TO 20 KT W OF 130W. THE NLY WINDS E OF 130W N OF
25N WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS DO THE NW WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST. THE
MODEL STILL TRACKS A WEAK LOW ALONG 10N TO NEAR 104W DAY 2 WITH
NO DEVELOPMENT.
$$
RRG
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151007
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PDT THU JUN 15 2006
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
FORECASTER STEWART
$$
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150930
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU JUN 15 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0845 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W N OF 3N MOVING W AT 10 KT. SMALL FLARE
UP OF CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ POSSIBLY CAUSED BY WAVE OTHERWISE
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER LAND AREAS. NO ORGANIZATION.
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 106W FROM 4N-13N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. NO
CONVECTION ACTIVE AT THIS TIME.
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 119W FROM 3N-14N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. ITCZ
BOWS NWD ALONG 120W..POSSIBLY CAUSED BY WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ BETWEEN 116W AND 125W. NO ORGANIZATION.
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 140W FROM 2N TO 10N MOVING W AT 15 KT.
BROKEN MID CLOUDS ALONG WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
ALONG ITCZ. NO ORGANIZATION.
..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG...6N77W 7N92W 9N106W
11N118W 10N129W 5N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 6N83W
6N87W 7N94W 5N96W AND 6N97W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM OF
A LINE FROM 10N115W TO 10N127W TO 9N130W AND FROM 7N136W TO
6N140W.
LOW PRES NEAR 12N98W 1010 MB. SMALL BAND OF WEAK CONVECTION
WITHIN 30 NM E AND NE QUADRANTS OF CENTER.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA
NEAR 7N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 8N83W TO 9N85W AND FROM
13N88W TO 15N99W.
...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...
THE APPEARANCE OF MID LEVEL EASTERLIES OVER THE REGION IS A NEW
FEATURE TONIGHT.
AN ELONGATED W TO E UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 35N140W TO 27N120W
TO NRN MEXICO. THE RIDGE IS SEPARATING WESTERLIES TO THE N AND
EASTERLIES TO THE S. AN INVERTED TROUGH LIES OVER THE EXTREME NW
GULF WHERE THE EASTERLY FLOW CROSSES OVER THEN HEADS SW ACROSS
CENTRAL MEXICO TO BETWEEN 12N AND 22N AT 120W. THE EASTERLIES
THEN MOVE NW OVER ANOTHER INVERTED TROUGH ALONG 140W.
LATER DAY 1 THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS E TO 32N134W STILL
MAINTAINING A RIDGE AXIS EWD TO NRN MEXICO. THE EASTERLIES
CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE REGION BETWEEN 15N
AND 25N.
FOR DAY 2 THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER MOVES TO NEAR 31N132W AND
CONTINUES AN W TO E AXIS ACROSS NRN MEXICO. WESTERLIES ARE KEPT
N OF THE REGION WHILE EASTERLIES CONTINUE ON THE S SIDE OF THE
RIDGE BETWEEN 15N AND 25N.
SURFACE FEATURES...
ON THE SURFACE MAP TONIGHT THE PACIFIC HIGH IS CENTERED NW OF
THE REGION AND EXTENDS SE TO NEAR 15N110W. SSMI AND QUIKSCAT
CONFIRM WHAT THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 06Z FOR NE TRADES S OF
THE RIDGE AXIS. BOTH SHOW NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT W OF 130W. ALSO A
NLY FLOW ALONG THE BAJA COAST IS A LITTLE STRONGER IN THE
QUIKSCAT THAN SSMI BY ABOUT 5 KT. A WEAK LOW WAS NEAR 12N98W
MOVING WNW 10 TO 15 KT.
LATER DAY 1 LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH THE
PACIFIC RIDGE CONTINUING TO PRODUCE NE TRADES W OF 130W OF 20 KT
MAINLY S OF 22N AND A NLY WIND E OF 125N TO THE BAJA COAST OF 20
KT N OF 25N. THE GFS MODEL DOES NOT LOCK ON TO THE WEAK LOW BUT
RATHER TRACKS SOMETHING ALONG 10N NEAR 98W.
FOR DAY 2 THE GFS MODEL SHOWS THE PACIFIC RIDGE WEAKENING SOME
WITH NE TRADES TO 20 KT W OF 130W. THE NLY WINDS E OF 130W N OF
25N WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS DO THE NW WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST. THE
MODEL STILL TRACKS A WEAK LOW ALONG 10N TO NEAR 104W DAY 2 WITH
NO DEVELOPMENT.
$$
RRG
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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bvigal
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2276
- Joined: Sun Jul 24, 2005 8:49 am
- Location: British Virgin Islands
- Contact:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 151513
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU JUN 15 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALBERTO... WHICH IS NOW AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM AREA... IS LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA.
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS DIMINISHED.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
FORECASTER BEVEN
$$
ABNT20 KNHC 151513
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU JUN 15 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALBERTO... WHICH IS NOW AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM AREA... IS LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA.
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS DIMINISHED.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
FORECASTER BEVEN
$$
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-
Hurricanehink
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2041
- Joined: Sun Nov 16, 2003 2:05 pm
- Location: New Jersey
Do you want an actual archive? This link, ftp://ftp.met.fsu.edu/pub/weather/tropical/Outlook-A/ , has every TWO back to August of 2000 in the Atlantic. This link, ftp://ftp.met.fsu.edu/pub/weather/tropical/Outlook-P/ , has every Pacific TWO back to November of 2001.
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bvigal wrote:000
ABNT20 KNHC 151513
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU JUN 15 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALBERTO... WHICH IS NOW AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM AREA... IS LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA.
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS DIMINISHED.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
FORECASTER BEVEN
$$
All quiet the rest of this week. People might as well go fishing this weekend
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-
bvigal
- S2K Supporter
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- Joined: Sun Jul 24, 2005 8:49 am
- Location: British Virgin Islands
- Contact:
That's great, thanks for the link! Actually, it was the TW Discussions which were of most interest. And we couldn't find them archived anywhere. If you know of a location, would love to have that link!!Hurricanehink wrote:Do you want an actual archive? This link, ftp://ftp.met.fsu.edu/pub/weather/tropical/Outlook-A/ , has every TWO back to August of 2000 in the Atlantic. This link, ftp://ftp.met.fsu.edu/pub/weather/tropical/Outlook-P/ , has every Pacific TWO back to November of 2001.
0 likes
-
bvigal
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2276
- Joined: Sun Jul 24, 2005 8:49 am
- Location: British Virgin Islands
- Contact:
000
AXNT20 KNHC 151719
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10-15
KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS WELL DEFINED WITH BROAD ELONGATED CYCLONIC
TURNING EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. DESPITE THE CONTINUED WELL
DEFINED WAVE SIGNATURE...CONVECTION HAS SUBSTANTIALLY DECREASED
WITH THIS FEATURE WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY AHEAD OF
THE WAVE AXIS.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THERE IS SOME BROAD TURNING NEAR THE
WAVE AXIS BUT OVERALL THIS WAVE IS MORE DISORGANIZED TODAY THAN
IT WAS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 76W SOUTH OF 19N
MOVING WEST 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE WAS VERY WELL DEFINED EARLIER
THIS WEEK WHEN IT WAS APPROACHING AND IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
AS IT HAS BEEN TRACKING WESTWARD ACROSS THE SEA IT HAS BEEN
BECOMING LESS DEFINED. THE WAVE STILL SHOWS SOME LOW-MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION SIGNATURE AND IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 74W-84W.
ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 9N26W 6N38W 9N48W 9N60W. THE
ONLY ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAS MOVED OFF THE
COAST OF AFRICA AND CURRENTLY LIES E OF 22W FROM 2N-12N. THIS
AREA MAY POSSIBLY BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVES.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER W CUBA IS SUPPLYING DRY AIR
ALOFT IN THE SE GULF. A RATHER WEAK UPPER LOW IS IN THE NW GULF
NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...ON THE W
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH...A PLUME OF MOISTURE IS ADVECTED
FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND EAST PACIFIC INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. A SFC TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THIS MOISTURE PLUME ALONG
24N93W TO 18N95W. THIS TROUGH IS ENHANCING SHOWERS AND TSTMS
FROM 19N-26N BETWEEN 89W-95W. BUOY 42055 REPORTED 30 KT WINDS IN
ONE OF THE TSTMS NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER
IS MOVING TOWARDS THE WNW AT ABOUT 10-15 KT. A 1019 MB HIGH HAS
DEVELOPED ABOUT 50-100 NM WEST OF THE COAST OF NAPLES FLORIDA
NEAR 26N83W SUPPLYING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE SE GULF AND S
FLORIDA. MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND AS THE SFC TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD AND HIGH PRES
RIDGING BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
MUCH OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LIE ON THE S PERIPHERY OF
A STRONG UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER W CUBA. DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT
IS WIDESPREAD N OF 18N...THIS INCLUDES THE ISLANDS OF CUBA
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N56W
IN THE CENTRAL ATLC HAS AN UPPER TROUGH THAT DIGS ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES TO 15N66W. AT THE SURFACE...THE ONLY FEATURE
PRODUCING ANY UNSTABLE WEATHER IS A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 76W.
THIS WAVE IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE TODAY AS IT WAS OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS GENERATING ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM
12N-18N BETWEEN 74W-84W. A WEAKENING CLUSTERS OF STORMS IS OVER
GUATEMALA AND THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. TRADE WINDS ARE
GENERALLY NEAR 20 KT WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS NEAR 25 KT
BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS. OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER W CUBA WITH UPPER
RIDGING EXTENDING NEWARD TO 32N58W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE
ACCOMPANIES THE RIDGE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED TO THE
EAST OF THE UPPER RIDGE WITH A VAGUE UPPER AXIS EXTENDING FROM
32N27W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 29N33W TO ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR 23N56W TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE SOUTHERN UPPER LOW IS
CUTTING OFF THE SPRAWLING RIDGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THIS UPPER LOW FROM 19N-26N BETWEEN 50W-55W. BROAD
RIDGING COVERS THE EAST ATLANTIC E OF 36W S OF 30N. A LARGE LOW
PRES SYSTEM N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 37N11W HAS TROUGHING
THAT COVERS THE EXTREME NE PART OF THE AREA E OF 25W N OF 30N.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES IS THE RULE. A PAIR OF 1030 MB HIGHS
IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N33W AND 34N45W IS SUPPLYING
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN EXCEPT FOR
THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOWS AND TROPICAL WAVES.
COMPUTER MODELS KEEP THE SPRAWLING SFC HIGH PRES SYSTEM IN THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS SO LITTLE WEATHER CHANGE
IS EXPECTED.
$$
CANGIALOSI
AXNT20 KNHC 151719
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10-15
KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS WELL DEFINED WITH BROAD ELONGATED CYCLONIC
TURNING EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. DESPITE THE CONTINUED WELL
DEFINED WAVE SIGNATURE...CONVECTION HAS SUBSTANTIALLY DECREASED
WITH THIS FEATURE WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY AHEAD OF
THE WAVE AXIS.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THERE IS SOME BROAD TURNING NEAR THE
WAVE AXIS BUT OVERALL THIS WAVE IS MORE DISORGANIZED TODAY THAN
IT WAS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 76W SOUTH OF 19N
MOVING WEST 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE WAS VERY WELL DEFINED EARLIER
THIS WEEK WHEN IT WAS APPROACHING AND IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
AS IT HAS BEEN TRACKING WESTWARD ACROSS THE SEA IT HAS BEEN
BECOMING LESS DEFINED. THE WAVE STILL SHOWS SOME LOW-MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION SIGNATURE AND IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 74W-84W.
ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 9N26W 6N38W 9N48W 9N60W. THE
ONLY ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAS MOVED OFF THE
COAST OF AFRICA AND CURRENTLY LIES E OF 22W FROM 2N-12N. THIS
AREA MAY POSSIBLY BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVES.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER W CUBA IS SUPPLYING DRY AIR
ALOFT IN THE SE GULF. A RATHER WEAK UPPER LOW IS IN THE NW GULF
NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...ON THE W
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH...A PLUME OF MOISTURE IS ADVECTED
FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND EAST PACIFIC INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. A SFC TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THIS MOISTURE PLUME ALONG
24N93W TO 18N95W. THIS TROUGH IS ENHANCING SHOWERS AND TSTMS
FROM 19N-26N BETWEEN 89W-95W. BUOY 42055 REPORTED 30 KT WINDS IN
ONE OF THE TSTMS NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER
IS MOVING TOWARDS THE WNW AT ABOUT 10-15 KT. A 1019 MB HIGH HAS
DEVELOPED ABOUT 50-100 NM WEST OF THE COAST OF NAPLES FLORIDA
NEAR 26N83W SUPPLYING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE SE GULF AND S
FLORIDA. MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND AS THE SFC TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD AND HIGH PRES
RIDGING BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
MUCH OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LIE ON THE S PERIPHERY OF
A STRONG UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER W CUBA. DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT
IS WIDESPREAD N OF 18N...THIS INCLUDES THE ISLANDS OF CUBA
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N56W
IN THE CENTRAL ATLC HAS AN UPPER TROUGH THAT DIGS ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES TO 15N66W. AT THE SURFACE...THE ONLY FEATURE
PRODUCING ANY UNSTABLE WEATHER IS A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 76W.
THIS WAVE IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE TODAY AS IT WAS OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS GENERATING ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM
12N-18N BETWEEN 74W-84W. A WEAKENING CLUSTERS OF STORMS IS OVER
GUATEMALA AND THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. TRADE WINDS ARE
GENERALLY NEAR 20 KT WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS NEAR 25 KT
BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS. OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER W CUBA WITH UPPER
RIDGING EXTENDING NEWARD TO 32N58W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE
ACCOMPANIES THE RIDGE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED TO THE
EAST OF THE UPPER RIDGE WITH A VAGUE UPPER AXIS EXTENDING FROM
32N27W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 29N33W TO ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR 23N56W TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE SOUTHERN UPPER LOW IS
CUTTING OFF THE SPRAWLING RIDGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THIS UPPER LOW FROM 19N-26N BETWEEN 50W-55W. BROAD
RIDGING COVERS THE EAST ATLANTIC E OF 36W S OF 30N. A LARGE LOW
PRES SYSTEM N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 37N11W HAS TROUGHING
THAT COVERS THE EXTREME NE PART OF THE AREA E OF 25W N OF 30N.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES IS THE RULE. A PAIR OF 1030 MB HIGHS
IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N33W AND 34N45W IS SUPPLYING
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN EXCEPT FOR
THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOWS AND TROPICAL WAVES.
COMPUTER MODELS KEEP THE SPRAWLING SFC HIGH PRES SYSTEM IN THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS SO LITTLE WEATHER CHANGE
IS EXPECTED.
$$
CANGIALOSI
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-
Hyperstorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 1500
- Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 3:48 am
- Location: Ocala, FL
bvigal wrote:That's great, thanks for the link! Actually, it was the TW Discussions which were of most interest. And we couldn't find them archived anywhere. If you know of a location, would love to have that link!!Hurricanehink wrote:Do you want an actual archive? This link, ftp://ftp.met.fsu.edu/pub/weather/tropical/Outlook-A/ , has every TWO back to August of 2000 in the Atlantic. This link, ftp://ftp.met.fsu.edu/pub/weather/tropical/Outlook-P/ , has every Pacific TWO back to November of 2001.
ftp://ftp.met.fsu.edu/pub/weather/tropical/Atl-Dis/
This has all Tropical Weather Discussions for the Atlantic since January 2002.
You should be covered...
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-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146196
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
053
ABNT20 KNHC 152116
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
FORECASTER KNABB/LANDSEA
$$
ABNT20 KNHC 152116
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
FORECASTER KNABB/LANDSEA
$$
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
bvigal
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2276
- Joined: Sun Jul 24, 2005 8:49 am
- Location: British Virgin Islands
- Contact:
Hyperstorm wrote:ftp://ftp.met.fsu.edu/pub/weather/tropical/Atl-Dis/
This has all Tropical Weather Discussions for the Atlantic since January 2002.
You should be covered...
Whoops!! I did go to the link Hunrricanhink gave, and went up a directory. But I'm afraid I only looked under "d" for discussions, since outlooks were under "o". My bad!! Thanks Hyperstorm!!
No wonder we couldn't find them, were searching all the NOAA sites. I didn't know FL State kept them. They certainly have no obligation to, nor to make them available to public. Great!
*Do you know how much money those ftp sites would save in bandwidth if they could sort their directories with the newest on top??!!
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-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146196
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
AXNT20 KNHC 152337
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W SOUTH OF 17N AND MOVING WEST 10-15
KT. THE WAVE IS FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED WITH CYCLONIC TURNING
COVERING A BROAD AREA UP TO EIGHT DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE
WAVE AXIS. MAINLY LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE LOCATED FROM ABOUT 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 20W AND 32W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W SOUTH OF 17N AND MOVING WEST
NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS LOST SOME OF ITS IDENTITY OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. NEVERTHELESS IT IS STILL IDENTIFIABLE ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LOCATED FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 52W AND 57W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 78W SOUTH
OF 19N AND MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. LIKE THE WAVE ALONG 51W/52W
THIS WAVE HAS BECOME LESS WELL DEFINED THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LIE ALONG AND W OF
THE WAVE AXIS TO 85W FROM 16N TO 20N WITH MORE CONCENTRATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE NICARAGUA COAST TO 79W FROM 11N
TO 14N.
ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 10N28W 8N32W 7N40W 11N50W
9N62W. A LARGE AREA OF LAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIES SOUTH OF THE ITCZ TO NEAR THE EQUATOR EAST OF
ABOUT 30W. A SMALL CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED
WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 8N34W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...ATLANTIC W OF 70W...CARIBBEAN W OF 70W...
WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS NEAR 26.5N98.5W...NEARLY STATIONARY. ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION A SUBTROPICAL JET IS LOCATED
FROM NEAR 20N100W TO 29N94W AND THEN TURNS EASTWARD ACROSS THE N
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA TO BEYOND 32N72W. AT THE SURFACE A
TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM NEAR 26.5N92W TO 19N95W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS OF 26.5N92.5W
ARE MOVING NORTHEAST. OVER THE ATLANTIC THE SOUTHERN PART OF A
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG AND OFF THE UNITED STATES EAST
COAST COVERS THE AREA N OF 28N W OF 68W. A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED
JUST NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE ATLANTIC. AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
FAIRLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 70W. A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH
IS LOCATED OFF THE SW FLORIDA COAST.
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND THE CARIBBEAN E OF 70W...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...ABOUT 10 DEGREES IN
DIAMETER...IS CENTERED NEAR 23N58W. THIS FEATURE IS DRIFTING W.
A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE CIRCULATION INTO THE NE
CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N70W. FURTHER EAST SOME RIDGING ALOFT IS
EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM 15N TO 25N BETWEEN 48W AND
53W.
EAST ATLANTIC...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED IN THE
VICINITY OF 28N34W...NEARLY STATIONARY. THE CIRCULATION IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE TROUGH WITH CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE
AREA N OF 20N BETWEEN 28W AND 48W. BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS
THE TROPICS EAST OF ABOUT 35W. A 1029 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR
34N43W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD.
$$
CAB
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W SOUTH OF 17N AND MOVING WEST 10-15
KT. THE WAVE IS FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED WITH CYCLONIC TURNING
COVERING A BROAD AREA UP TO EIGHT DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE
WAVE AXIS. MAINLY LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE LOCATED FROM ABOUT 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 20W AND 32W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W SOUTH OF 17N AND MOVING WEST
NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS LOST SOME OF ITS IDENTITY OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. NEVERTHELESS IT IS STILL IDENTIFIABLE ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LOCATED FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 52W AND 57W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 78W SOUTH
OF 19N AND MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. LIKE THE WAVE ALONG 51W/52W
THIS WAVE HAS BECOME LESS WELL DEFINED THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LIE ALONG AND W OF
THE WAVE AXIS TO 85W FROM 16N TO 20N WITH MORE CONCENTRATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE NICARAGUA COAST TO 79W FROM 11N
TO 14N.
ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 10N28W 8N32W 7N40W 11N50W
9N62W. A LARGE AREA OF LAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIES SOUTH OF THE ITCZ TO NEAR THE EQUATOR EAST OF
ABOUT 30W. A SMALL CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED
WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 8N34W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...ATLANTIC W OF 70W...CARIBBEAN W OF 70W...
WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS NEAR 26.5N98.5W...NEARLY STATIONARY. ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION A SUBTROPICAL JET IS LOCATED
FROM NEAR 20N100W TO 29N94W AND THEN TURNS EASTWARD ACROSS THE N
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA TO BEYOND 32N72W. AT THE SURFACE A
TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM NEAR 26.5N92W TO 19N95W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS OF 26.5N92.5W
ARE MOVING NORTHEAST. OVER THE ATLANTIC THE SOUTHERN PART OF A
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG AND OFF THE UNITED STATES EAST
COAST COVERS THE AREA N OF 28N W OF 68W. A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED
JUST NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE ATLANTIC. AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
FAIRLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 70W. A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH
IS LOCATED OFF THE SW FLORIDA COAST.
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND THE CARIBBEAN E OF 70W...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...ABOUT 10 DEGREES IN
DIAMETER...IS CENTERED NEAR 23N58W. THIS FEATURE IS DRIFTING W.
A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE CIRCULATION INTO THE NE
CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N70W. FURTHER EAST SOME RIDGING ALOFT IS
EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM 15N TO 25N BETWEEN 48W AND
53W.
EAST ATLANTIC...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED IN THE
VICINITY OF 28N34W...NEARLY STATIONARY. THE CIRCULATION IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE TROUGH WITH CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE
AREA N OF 20N BETWEEN 28W AND 48W. BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS
THE TROPICS EAST OF ABOUT 35W. A 1029 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR
34N43W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD.
$$
CAB
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 160622
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUN 16 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 33W AND 37W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 TO
20 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 12N TO 19N BETWEEN
51W AND 59W. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
AND ARE NOT HELPING THIS WAVE TO DEVELOP. SOME UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE WIND FIELD IS OBSERVED IN THE INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 17/0500 UTC FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 50W
AND 60W. THE 22N59W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS HELPING
TO CREATE SOME OF THIS DIFFLUENT FLOW.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 81W
SOUTH OF 21N AND HAS BEEN MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT DURING THE
LAST 24 HOURS. A FEW CELLS OF MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 82W AND 85W.
SOME AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING AND
OTHERS ARE DISSIPATING IN THIS AREA.
THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 13N16W 10N25W 10N31W 8N35W 9N40W 11N47W 11N53W 11N55W
9N63W. A CYCLONIC SWIRL OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM
5N TO 10N BETWEEN 16W AND 23W PROBABLY IS THE INDICATOR OF THE
NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO LEAVE FROM AFRICA. NOTHING HAS BEEN PLACED
ON ON THE SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS WITH REGARD TO THIS WAVE YET.
PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONIC SWIRL WAS SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 11W AND 17W.
THAT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN WEAKENING DURING THE LAST 5 HOURS.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FOUND ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 11N EAST OF 60W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 25N WEST OF 55W...
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST STILL SEES THE SAME MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTER THAT EXISTED ON 16/0600 UTC. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW
RUNS FROM THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF BROKEN CLOUDS COVERS
THE GULF WATERS WEST OF 90W...AND NORTH OF 26N EAST OF 90W.
IT APPEARS THAT A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS TRYING
TO FORM IN THE WATER JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS MOVED OFF THE U.S.A. EAST
COAST AND IS DIGGING NOW THROUGH 32N76W TO 28N77W. THIS DEEP
LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH RUNS THROUGH
32N68W TO 30N76W TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...
AND FROM 30N TO 31N BETWEEN 67W AND 68W.
THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
SOUTH OF 25N WEST OF 50W...
A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 14N78W...
A LITTLE BIT TO THE NORTH OF WHERE IT WAS DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH
THE AREA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM
A 22N59W LOW CENTER INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM
10N75W TO 7N77W...POSSIBLY WITH THE ITCZ.
THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 27N33W. CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 20N TO
35N BETWEEN 28W AND 45W. NO DEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 29N35W LOW CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS JUST NORTH OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS TO 21N25W BEYOND 32N25W. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 30N EAST OF
23W...WITH A LOW CENTER WEST OF PORTUGAL. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS
FROM A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 33N43W...TO 30N50W
29N55W 28N65W TOWARD THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS NORTH
OF 17N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. COAST.
$$
MT
AXNT20 KNHC 160622
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUN 16 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 33W AND 37W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 TO
20 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 12N TO 19N BETWEEN
51W AND 59W. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
AND ARE NOT HELPING THIS WAVE TO DEVELOP. SOME UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE WIND FIELD IS OBSERVED IN THE INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 17/0500 UTC FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 50W
AND 60W. THE 22N59W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS HELPING
TO CREATE SOME OF THIS DIFFLUENT FLOW.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 81W
SOUTH OF 21N AND HAS BEEN MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT DURING THE
LAST 24 HOURS. A FEW CELLS OF MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 82W AND 85W.
SOME AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING AND
OTHERS ARE DISSIPATING IN THIS AREA.
THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 13N16W 10N25W 10N31W 8N35W 9N40W 11N47W 11N53W 11N55W
9N63W. A CYCLONIC SWIRL OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM
5N TO 10N BETWEEN 16W AND 23W PROBABLY IS THE INDICATOR OF THE
NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO LEAVE FROM AFRICA. NOTHING HAS BEEN PLACED
ON ON THE SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS WITH REGARD TO THIS WAVE YET.
PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONIC SWIRL WAS SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 11W AND 17W.
THAT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN WEAKENING DURING THE LAST 5 HOURS.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FOUND ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 11N EAST OF 60W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 25N WEST OF 55W...
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST STILL SEES THE SAME MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTER THAT EXISTED ON 16/0600 UTC. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW
RUNS FROM THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF BROKEN CLOUDS COVERS
THE GULF WATERS WEST OF 90W...AND NORTH OF 26N EAST OF 90W.
IT APPEARS THAT A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS TRYING
TO FORM IN THE WATER JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS MOVED OFF THE U.S.A. EAST
COAST AND IS DIGGING NOW THROUGH 32N76W TO 28N77W. THIS DEEP
LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH RUNS THROUGH
32N68W TO 30N76W TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...
AND FROM 30N TO 31N BETWEEN 67W AND 68W.
THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
SOUTH OF 25N WEST OF 50W...
A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 14N78W...
A LITTLE BIT TO THE NORTH OF WHERE IT WAS DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH
THE AREA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM
A 22N59W LOW CENTER INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM
10N75W TO 7N77W...POSSIBLY WITH THE ITCZ.
THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 27N33W. CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 20N TO
35N BETWEEN 28W AND 45W. NO DEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 29N35W LOW CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS JUST NORTH OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS TO 21N25W BEYOND 32N25W. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 30N EAST OF
23W...WITH A LOW CENTER WEST OF PORTUGAL. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS
FROM A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 33N43W...TO 30N50W
29N55W 28N65W TOWARD THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS NORTH
OF 17N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. COAST.
$$
MT
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146196
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
AXNT20 KNHC 161101
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUN 16 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W/34W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. A FEW CELLS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND
FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 32W AND 35W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE SEEN FROM 7N TO 14N BETWEEN 30W AND 38W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/56W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST
15 TO 20 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 13N TO 20N
BETWEEN 53W AND 59W. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST AND ARE NOT HELPING THIS WAVE TO DEVELOP. SOME UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE WIND FIELD IS OBSERVED IN THE
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 17/1015 UTC FROM 20N TO 25N
BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. THE 23N58W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER
IS HELPING TO CREATE SOME OF THIS DIFFLUENT FLOW.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 82W/83W
SOUTH OF 21N AND HAS BEEN MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT DURING THE
LAST 24 HOURS. A FEW CELLS OF ISOLATED MODERATE PRECIPITATION
HAVE BEEN WEAKENING WITH TIME FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 82W
AND 85W.
THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 14N11W 10N20W 10N30W 8N36W 8N38W 10N48W 10N53W 10N57W
10N63W. CYCLONIC SWIRL OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM
5N TO 11N BETWEEN 16W AND 23W PROBABLY IS THE INDICATOR OF THE
NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO LEAVE FROM AFRICA. NOTHING HAS BEEN PLACED
ON ON THE SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS WITH REGARD TO THIS WAVE YET.
PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONIC SWIRL WAS ISOLATED
WAS MODERATE FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 11W AND 17W. THAT
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN WEAKENING DURING THE LAST 5 HOURS.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 11N EAST OF 60W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 25N WEST OF 55W...
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LOW CENTER FROM SIX HOURS AGO NOW COVERS
THE ENTIRE TEXAS COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW RUNS FROM THE
WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF BROKEN CLOUDS COVERS THE GULF WATERS
WEST OF 90W...AND NORTH OF 26N EAST OF 90W. IT APPEARS THAT A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS TRYING TO FORM IN THE WATER
JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH HAS MOVED OFF THE U.S.A. EAST COAST AND IS DIGGING NOW
THROUGH 32N74W TO 25N75W. THIS DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH RUNS THROUGH 32N67W TO 29N77W BEYOND
31N85W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
33N65W 30N71W 28N80W.
THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
SOUTH OF 25N WEST OF 50W...
A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 14N78W...
A LITTLE BIT TO THE NORTH OF WHERE IT WAS DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH
THE AREA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM A 22N59W
LOW CENTER INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN THE
GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN FROM 75W AND
78W.
THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 27N32W. CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 20N TO
35N BETWEEN 28W AND 45W. NO DEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 27N32W LOW CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS JUST NORTH OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS TO 21N25W BEYOND 32N25W. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 30N EAST OF
23W...WITH A LOW CENTER WEST OF PORTUGAL. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS
FROM A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 34N41W...TO 30N59W
27N65W...TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...AND THEN TO THE 1017 MB
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N85W.
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS
NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. COAST.
$$
MT
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUN 16 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W/34W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. A FEW CELLS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND
FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 32W AND 35W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE SEEN FROM 7N TO 14N BETWEEN 30W AND 38W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/56W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST
15 TO 20 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 13N TO 20N
BETWEEN 53W AND 59W. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST AND ARE NOT HELPING THIS WAVE TO DEVELOP. SOME UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE WIND FIELD IS OBSERVED IN THE
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 17/1015 UTC FROM 20N TO 25N
BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. THE 23N58W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER
IS HELPING TO CREATE SOME OF THIS DIFFLUENT FLOW.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 82W/83W
SOUTH OF 21N AND HAS BEEN MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT DURING THE
LAST 24 HOURS. A FEW CELLS OF ISOLATED MODERATE PRECIPITATION
HAVE BEEN WEAKENING WITH TIME FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 82W
AND 85W.
THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 14N11W 10N20W 10N30W 8N36W 8N38W 10N48W 10N53W 10N57W
10N63W. CYCLONIC SWIRL OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM
5N TO 11N BETWEEN 16W AND 23W PROBABLY IS THE INDICATOR OF THE
NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO LEAVE FROM AFRICA. NOTHING HAS BEEN PLACED
ON ON THE SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS WITH REGARD TO THIS WAVE YET.
PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONIC SWIRL WAS ISOLATED
WAS MODERATE FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 11W AND 17W. THAT
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN WEAKENING DURING THE LAST 5 HOURS.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 11N EAST OF 60W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 25N WEST OF 55W...
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LOW CENTER FROM SIX HOURS AGO NOW COVERS
THE ENTIRE TEXAS COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW RUNS FROM THE
WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF BROKEN CLOUDS COVERS THE GULF WATERS
WEST OF 90W...AND NORTH OF 26N EAST OF 90W. IT APPEARS THAT A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS TRYING TO FORM IN THE WATER
JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH HAS MOVED OFF THE U.S.A. EAST COAST AND IS DIGGING NOW
THROUGH 32N74W TO 25N75W. THIS DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH RUNS THROUGH 32N67W TO 29N77W BEYOND
31N85W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
33N65W 30N71W 28N80W.
THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
SOUTH OF 25N WEST OF 50W...
A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 14N78W...
A LITTLE BIT TO THE NORTH OF WHERE IT WAS DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH
THE AREA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM A 22N59W
LOW CENTER INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN THE
GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN FROM 75W AND
78W.
THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 27N32W. CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 20N TO
35N BETWEEN 28W AND 45W. NO DEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 27N32W LOW CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS JUST NORTH OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS TO 21N25W BEYOND 32N25W. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 30N EAST OF
23W...WITH A LOW CENTER WEST OF PORTUGAL. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS
FROM A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 34N41W...TO 30N59W
27N65W...TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...AND THEN TO THE 1017 MB
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N85W.
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS
NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. COAST.
$$
MT
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