What happens when this gets into the GOM?

[stormtruth]

Proof once again that Houston, Texas is one of the most dangerous cities to live in. http://www.cnn.com/2006/WEATHER/06/19/t ... index.html

[southerngale]

So, southerngale, from what you're hearing will it get worse here before it gets better? We're in Orange and the water is getting dangerously close to the house.

I wish I knew, but it's not looking good. From what I'm hearing, it should start wrapping back around from the GOM, and since the low is barely drifting, we may be dealing with this for at least another day. I think that depends on who you listen to and what models they're trusting because I've heard everything from maybe it will move out by Tuesday morning to the rains sticking around for another 48 hours. I know that there are already homes flooding...my friend's house in Groves flooded and she's trying to find sandbags now because it's still raining and they say it will likely get worse. Someone told her where she could get sand and bags but she needs to find some already made, so if you know where she can get any, please let me know. The last time I talked to her, she was calling the local EOC, so hopefully they were some help.

Is it still raining there now, Diva? It's been off and on here most of the morning after raining all night.

[SouthFloridawx]

Let's see how long this area of convection persists in over the GOM associated with a mid to upper level low. Convection is looking pretty good right now.


5-30 kts of shear over parts of the gom.


You can see the 1014mb low currently over texas but, it may soon move over into the open waeters of the Gulf Of Mexico.
Lot's of flooding in texas right now.
000
FXUS64 KHGX 191546
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1046 AM CDT MON JUN 19 2006

.UPDATE...

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT HAS OCCURRED OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS`S FLOOD WATCH AREA...AND THIS EVENT IS
NOT OVER YET! NEARLY STATIONARY MCV TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
HOUSTON AREA RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR LATEST IN A LONG LINE OF FLOOD
EVENTS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY OFF TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. AS THAT HAPPENS...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. THE HEAVIEST
RAINS ARE NOW FALLING ACROSS PORTIONS OF GALVESTON COUNTY...GALVESTON
BAY AND OFF THE COAST AND THEN TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA. THESE RAINS ARE OCCURRING TO THE SOUTH OF WHERE THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS WERE FOUND OVERNIGHT...BETWEEN 8 AND 11
INCHES IN AND AROUND THE HOUSTON HOBBY AIRPORT AREA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO BACKBUILD ACROSS BRAZORIA AND
MATAGORDA COUNTIES WHERE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE EASILY BEING
REACHED. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE WHERE SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. CONCERNED
ABOUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION AS
EARLY AS LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT MORE LIKELY INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE BIG CONCERN IS THAT SOME OF THIS HEAVY RAINFALL MIGHT
FALL AROUND AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED A LOT OF RAIN THIS MORNING.
OUR FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL BE EXTENDED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT FOR COUNTIES
ALREADY IN THE WATCH AND ADDITIONAL COUNTIES FURTHER OFF TO THE
WEST. FIRST GUESSES ON RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS ARE
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED 5 TO 10 INCH TOTALS WITH
THE STRONGER ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE HOUSTON
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTER
TONIGHT. THESE HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
SERIOUS FLOODING!

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 410 AM CDT MON JUN 19 2006)

DISCUSSION...
IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN LIBERTY
AND EASTERN HARRIS AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES WITH MAX SIX HOUR TOTALS
IN THE 3-7 INCH RANGE ACROSS THIS AREA. NEEDLESS TO SAY FLOODING
IS LIKELY OCCURRING AND WILL CONTINUE AS THE TSTM CLUSTER IS
BACK-BUILDING WITH ONLY A VERY SLOW SHIFT SOUTHWARD. HAVE
DECIDED TO EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 4 PM FOR THE SAME
AREA AS IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS THE TRACK OF THE MID/UPPER LOW WHICH
APPEARS TO BE BROAD AND NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT...ROUGHLY
CENTERED JUST NORTHEAST OF OF LIBERTY COUNTY. HAVE TRENDED THE
FORECAST TOWARD THE LATEST GFS WHICH SHOWS A VERY SLOW TRACK
TO THE SW...BACK OVER THE CWA TODAY AND POSITIONED ALONG THE
UPPER TX COAST TONIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY THIS TRACK WILL LIKELY
BRING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND FIRST
INLAND TIER COUNTIES. WE WILL LIKELY NEED THE WATCH TO GO
THROUGH MON NIGHT AS WE COULD SEE A SIMILAR RAINFALL
TONIGHT AS TO WHAT WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING...JUST SHIFTED A
LITTLE SW. WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT SEE HOW THE LOW MOVES TODAY AND
MAKE THAT DECISION. CURRENT THINKING IS AN ADDITIONAL 5-7 INCHES
IS POSSIBLE TODAY IN ISOLATED AREAS...AT LEAST SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD BE ON TAP MON NIGHT. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS
IS A SERIOUS FLOOD THREAT FOR SE AREAS OF SE TX FOR THE NEXT 30
HOURS...MUCH LIKE A SLOW MOVING TROPICAL SYSTEM.

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY SHIFT WEST OF THE AREA WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS LATER THIS WEEK. 33
POST SMALLER IMAGES OR LINKS PLEASE.. Moderator Staff

[Stratosphere747]

Proof once again that Houston, Texas is one of the most dangerous cities to live in. http://www.cnn.com/2006/WEATHER/06/19/t ... index.html

No offense, but your harping on Houston is getting.........

[southerngale]

Proof once again that Houston, Texas is one of the most dangerous cities to live in. http://www.cnn.com/2006/WEATHER/06/19/t ... index.html

Because it's flooding there? Geez, it can flood anywhere. Also, does that mean the Beaumont area is just as dangerous? After being in a drought, this is the 2nd significant rain/flood event this MONTH! What about Lake Charles? I think they're experiencing some flooding right now too. I can name some more places too.

I think your comment is a little ummm, out there.

[HouTXmetro]

Allison's low was still considered tropical in nature, while this is a mid-level low.

Looking at radar over the last few hours though...

26 Met just said Allison was a mid level low also. Also if I'm not mistaken it looks like the circulation is partially over Galveston Bay.

[Diva]

I wish I knew, but it's not looking good. From what I'm hearing, it should start wrapping back around from the GOM, and since the low is barely drifting, we may be dealing with this for at least another day. I think that depends on who you listen to and what models they're trusting because I've heard everything from maybe it will move out by Tuesday morning to the rains sticking around for another 48 hours. I know that there are already homes flooding...my friend's house in Groves flooded and she's trying to find sandbags now because it's still raining and they say it will likely get worse. Someone told her where she could get sand and bags but she needs to find some already made, so if you know where she can get any, please let me know. The last time I talked to her, she was calling the local EOC, so hopefully they were some help.

Is it still raining there now, Diva? It's been off and on here most of the morning after raining all night.

I asked hubby if he had any ideas for places in Groves for sandbags. He said that your friend is checking the same places he'd check. I'll keep my ears open though.
Rain is still a light sprinkle here. I can see the sprinkles as they fall in the front yard which is now a pond! The sky is starting to get dark again though.
This is beginning to feel very Allison-esque...

[Johnny]

Very Allisonesk (new word for the day) indeed. Talk about having a flashback.

[stormtruth]

Proof once again that Houston, Texas is one of the most dangerous cities to live in. http://www.cnn.com/2006/WEATHER/06/19/t ... index.html

Because it's flooding there? Geez, it can flood anywhere. Also, does that mean the Beaumont area is just as dangerous? After being in a drought, this is the 2nd significant rain/flood event this MONTH! What about Lake Charles? I think they're experiencing some flooding right now too. I can name some more places too.

I think your comment is a little ummm, out there.

Not just that. Tropical storms can swamp the city and a hurricane could destroy it. It is one of the most vulnerable cities to have such an enormous population. Also, just the threat of a hurricane kills 50 to 100 people during an evacuation. You probably missed some of the earlier conversation where Houston defenders were calling the city safe but it is at least as dangerous a place to live as Miami, Tampa or the other vulnerable hurricane spots.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Allison's low was still considered tropical in nature, while this is a mid-level low.

Looking at radar over the last few hours though...

26 Met just said Allison was a mid level low also. Also if I'm not mistaken it looks like the circulation is partially over Galveston Bay.

The met on Chan. 13 said that too. The point when Allison dropped the MOST rain on the city was when it was a mid level low.

Basically: Allison came ashore as a Low level TS, moved north and weakened to a depression, moved west of Houston as a mid level low (this is when the city saw the highest impact), re-emerged into the Gulf and became a low level subtropical depression, and moved east becoming a subtropical storm.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Very Allisonesk (new word for the day) indeed. Talk about having a flashback.

especially if we see another round of heavy rain later on. Currently, the hardest hit areas have seen 10-12" of rain, but if another round comes tonight, then some areas could see final rain totals over 20"!

[wxman57]

Allison was an example of a nocturnal "core dump" that occurs as tropical systems move ashore slow down, and spin down. During the day, convergence occurs over a large area, spreading out the rain. At night, though, the weak low-level circulation becomes a focus for convergence and a small convective complex can form over the remnant low. That's what happened with Allison in 2001.

This situation is different in that the focusing mechanism is not a surface low but a mid-level low. Basically a similar result, though.

I'm in southwest Houston, about 10-15 miles from downtown. So far I've measured 0.2 inches of rain. My boss called me at 6am to make sure I was aware of "the situation". I said "what situation?". Our office had 10 inches of rain in 2 hours and nobody can get in. I slept through that Friday night with Allison (only 6-8 inches here) and I slept through last night with little or no rain.

Roads are starting to clear out a bit now, but I'm not going out there in my new car.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Frank B. just said on Chan. 2 that IF this were to move over the Gulf that it would "probably" become a tropical system. He also made reference to Allison and Alicia and said that they both started as T-storm complexes over land.

[wxman57]

Frank B. just said on Chan. 2 that IF this were to move over the Gulf that it would "probably" become a tropical system. He also made reference to Allison and Alicia and said that they both started as T-storm complexes over land.

Sounds like Frank B. is sensationalizing things a bit. The chances of this moving over the Gulf and becoming a TS are remote. And Allison moved out of the NW Caribbean Sea as a tropical wave into the NW Gulf before becoming a TS. It did not move offshore as a cluster of storms. New model data suggest a westward drift of the upper-low tonight then gradual dissipation.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Frank B. just said on Chan. 2 that IF this were to move over the Gulf that it would "probably" become a tropical system. He also made reference to Allison and Alicia and said that they both started as T-storm complexes over land.

Sounds like Frank B. is sensationalizing things a bit. The chances of this moving over the Gulf and becoming a TS are remote. And Allison moved out of the NW Caribbean Sea as a tropical wave into the NW Gulf before becoming a TS. It did not move offshore as a cluster of storms. New model data suggest a westward drift of the upper-low tonight then gradual dissipation.

what he said was that it is not forecast to move into the Gulf, but that it likely would develop if it happened to. Also, in reference to Allison, he said it had started as T-storms in the Pacific, moved across Mexico, and organized in the BOC. Was he lying or was that the 2nd piece to the puzzle combined with the tropical wave?

[Stratosphere747]

Tropical Storm Allison formed in the northwest Gulf of Mexico on June 5th, only five days into the 2001 Hurricane Season. The system that became Allison could be traced all the way back to May 21st as a tropical wave that moved off the west coast of Africa. By the 29th, the disorganized system reached the western Caribbean Sea and then crossed into the Pacific Ocean on June 1st. The system then moved north into the Bay of Campeche late on the 4th.

The point being, Allison DID NOT "start as T-storm complex over land."

[Johnny]

I think Frank B. is talking about how after Allison made landfall and then ventured out into the gulf again.

I thought Alicia formed on the tail end of a front that moved into the gulf?

[Extremeweatherguy]

may be he was referring to a system coming off of mexico and adding moisture to the wave that became Allison?

As for Alicia, she started as a mesoscale low pressure system on the southern end of a front (which affected Houston as a complex of storms). She then broke off of the front, moved into S. Louisiana, and then took a south turn into the Gulf. Once into the Gulf she blew up and eventually became a hurricane before making landfall back on TX.

[Diva]

One thing I know for sure...we were swimming in Allison and we are swimming today!

[Roxy]

Sounds like Frank B. is sensationalizing things a bit.

Noooo, not Frank. He would never do that. LOL!