South Florida Watching 93L - NWS Mia Mentions It in Forecast

[ronjon]

TAMPA NWS AFD also mentions wave.


WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
143 PM EDT WED JUN 28 2006

LONG TERM (FRI NGT-WED)...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL WEAKEN SOME AS RIDGING
BUILDS OVER FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SETTING UP NORTH
OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ESTABLISH A MORE TYPICAL EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
SEA BREEZES WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE GFS IS STILL BRINGING A TROPICAL WAVE
WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA MONDAY MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN GULF ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE CLOUD COVER AND POPS
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND WILL GO WITH 50 POPS FOR THESE DAYS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 90S...EXCEPT UPPER 80S
ALONG THE COAST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
HOWEVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON
THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION AND COULD REMAIN IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S EVERYWHERE.

[deltadog03]

Since it's not going to be developing over the next 3-4 days (as the models forecast), it's not likely going to track to the NW toward Miami. Instead, it should track with the low-level flow and head nearly due west for the next 5-7 days. May need to keep a closer eye on it as it reaches Nicaragua/Honduras or the southern Yucatan late this weekend or early next week, though.

AGREED!!!! I think the one thing people really need to watch is when tropical systems are slow to develop the Low Level flow is usually from East to West, so in return the wave will move more to the west initially.

[gatorcane]

the wave has alot of convection being sheared to the north. If you imagine the wave farther WNW it would cover all of South Florida - more than likely it will flare up and down as it moves WNW across the Caribbean.

It is looking more and more like South Florida will feel some effects early next week.

Look for the easterlies to gradually increase as the week goes on an maybe get as high as 15-20mph with higher gusts across the FL straits if the wave axis gets close enough

[The Hurricaner]

EXACTLY SF is going to get rain. the models dont mean much now. ive heard alot of professionals already say that. so

[skysummit]

It's almost like SF would be ticked if it didn't head they're way. geez....

[SouthFloridawx]

Ya know the wave being stretched out so far north because of the shear is buggin me a little. Becuase and I don't know if it is possible that the southern part of the wave could continue moving west through the caribbean and the northern part could move more northwest into the greater antillies and the bahamas.

[BocaGirl]

It's almost like SF would be ticked if it didn't head they're way. geez....

NOT All of SF! Some of us like warm sunny weather. Yes we do!

BocaGirl
Barbara

[jusforsean]

It's almost like SF would be ticked if it didn't head they're way. geez....

NOT All of SF! Some of us like warm sunny weather. Yes we do!

BocaGirl
Barbara

Yes! I agree I am not -removed- any storms, rain or anything for that matter this year! Had my fill last year!

[HURRICANELONNY]

I am. We need the rain here. The NWS doesn't even mention the wave:http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc.asp?DiscussionCode=MFL&StateCode=FL&SafeCityName=Fort_Lauderdale

Personally I think it is over done and the local mets are off by a couple of days. Think will be effected on Monday/Tuesday if at all.

[gatorcane]

000
FXUS62 KMFL 291750
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
150 PM EDT THU JUN 29 2006

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW N OF THE BAHAMAS WILL MOVE NW NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WHILE
WEAKENING ALLOWING FOR UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE ATL
ACROSS S FLA. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW TROP WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED
NEAR PUERTO RICO TO MOVE W TOWARDS S FLA INTO THE WEEKEND. AS
THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES COME IN SYNC, S FLA WILL BE UNDER SOME
SUBSIDENCE ON FRI AND THUS ONLY SCATTERED POPS EXPECTED. THEN AS
THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE WAVE MOVE ACROSS S FLA ON SAT, POPS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND AND THEN GO BACK TO AOB
CLIMO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT THROUGH FRI AND THEN INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE WAVE. HOWEVER, THE WINDS WILL
STILL BE AT 15 KT OR LESS SO WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS WITH INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE WEEKEND
AND AFTN TSTMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 76 89 79 89 / 35 40 35 55
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 88 79 88 / 30 35 35 55
MIAMI 76 89 78 89 / 30 40 40 55
NAPLES 73 91 74 90 / 25 35 30 50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

30

[DelrayMorris]

It's almost like SF would be ticked if it didn't head they're way. geez....

NOT this South Floridian!!! I want to be able to enjoy some fireworks and on top of that, I have the 3rd off (given by my employer) and took a vacation day the 5th, so no way do I want to sit inside staring at rain for the 5 days (or last 3 of them) that I have off work!!

[gatorcane]

It's almost like SF would be ticked if it didn't head they're way. geez....

NOT this South Floridian!!! I want to be able to enjoy some fireworks and on top of that, I have the 3rd off (given by my employer) and took a vacation day the 5th, so no way do I want to sit inside staring at rain for the 5 days (or last 3 of them) that I have off work!!

It is looking like we will have 60%-70% rain chances early next week and the easterlies will increase.

[jlauderdal]

It's almost like SF would be ticked if it didn't head they're way. geez....

just like folks in other parts of the country like texas to name one. lets just hope this season doesnt get out of control for anyone

[jusforsean]

so when are we expecting this weather to begin?

[Aquawind]

Miami Discussion

THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW TROP WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED
NEAR PUERTO RICO TO MOVE W TOWARDS S FLA INTO THE WEEKEND. AS
THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES COME IN SYNC, S FLA WILL BE UNDER SOME
SUBSIDENCE ON FRI AND THUS ONLY SCATTERED POPS EXPECTED. THEN AS
THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE WAVE MOVE ACROSS S FLA ON SAT, POPS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND AND THEN GO BACK TO AOB
CLIMO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TBW Discussion.. Maybe enhance late sunday for So Fla as well..

GFS STILL BRINGING A TROPICAL WAVE
WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AROUND THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF
THE SURFACE RIDGE ON MONDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUDS AND ABOVE NORMAL POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

[jlauderdal]

so when are we expecting this weather to begin?

it starts when you want to have a barbie-q or shoot off some fireworks.

[SouthFloridawx]

so when are we expecting this weather to begin?

it starts when you want to have a barbie-q or shoot off some fireworks.

Sad but, very true.

[gatorcane]

so when are we expecting this weather to begin?

it starts when you want to have a barbie-q or shoot off some fireworks.

Sad but, very true.

funny, but you guys are right

[jlauderdal]

so when are we expecting this weather to begin?

it starts when you want to have a barbie-q or shoot off some fireworks.

Sad but, very true.

funny, but you guys are right

NWS predicts most of the convection will be confined to Palm Beach Co. and north, sorry to give you the bad news.

[gatorcane]

so when are we expecting this weather to begin?

it starts when you want to have a barbie-q or shoot off some fireworks.

Sad but, very true.

funny, but you guys are right

NWS predicts most of the convection will be confined to Palm Beach Co. and north, sorry to give you the bad news.

You mean Palm Beach County and South right - ?