INVEST 93L Comments Thread #2

[SouthFloridawx]

according to the pic farther up the page of the models, theyve shifter considerably north, along w/ the extrapolated track

Notice that it is farther and farther west when it makes that north turn also. Those models are not picking up on high pressure that will build in to the north of it..

[skysummit]

00z Models:

[SouthFloridawx]

00z Models:

Nevermind I had to look at it again.

[hicksta]

aint lookin to good

[ronjon]

This wave won't do anything but pulse up and down the next several days because of the strong SW shear its undergoing. I'd expect a general W-NW track and some moisture making it into S FL this weekend. Heck this wave occupies 10 degrees of latitude from N-S already. What I'll be watching is when it moves into the GOM - now progged as early next week. Models are currently not doing anything with it but conditions for development will improve as it slows down in 3-5 days. The trough over the east is predicted to re-amplify in 5-7 days, so whatever exists of this wave will likely get shunted to the N or NE in the GOM.

[bvigal]

Whatever high pressure is supposed to build, we still our trough, and this wave has moved toward it, as they usually do. The Navy surface map shows this wave way up here in our neighborhood, and I agree with them. On satellite loop over the night, it looked like a giant vacuum cleaner sucking all the precip from the whole island chain up to 20N 60W. I really think it's too late now for discussion the idea that high pressure is going to build in and take this wave across the Caribbean.

[skysummit]

Now, this morning the wave has died down once again. Lets please not see any posts that say "93L is dead".....this is why it's only a wave.

[beachbum_al]

This morning our local channel (TV 5 CBS~WKRG out of Mobile) did mention the wave. They are still watching it but said we will have a nice weekend and 4th.

[gatorcane]

looking at this wave this morning alot of the energy has been displaced farther north....very interesting I think. It is looking less likely it will just track quietly through the Caribbean. The islands including South Florida look to be a target.

[stormernie]

If you look closely at the visible loop you can see some hint of a mid level circulation SW of Guadelope. It seems to be moving northwest at a reduce speed. Also, you can see that west of PR the UL winds have dimished. In all likelihood this system will cross over somewhere between PR and DR and head into the SE Bahamas. After that it's a question of the steering flow at the time and the enviroment. One final item it seems that convention is starting to start up again in the vicinity of the MLC.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[skysummit]

looking at this wave this morning alot of the energy has been displaced farther north....very interesting I think. It is looking less likely it will just track quietly through the Caribbean. The islands including South Florida look to be a target.

The wave axis is still in the same vicinity...not displaced to the north, and it's still moving WNW. The moisture that's to the north is what was sheared overnight and pushed that way.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Wow, the convection has increased in the northern area of the wave significantly.

[skysummit]

6/29 12z Model Guidance:



If this is the way it'll go, there's virtually hardly any chance at development for a very long time since it'll be over land most of the way.

[bvigal]

looking at this wave this morning alot of the energy has been displaced farther north....very interesting I think. It is looking less likely it will just track quietly through the Caribbean. The islands including South Florida look to be a target.

The wave axis is still in the same vicinity...not displaced to the north, and it's still moving WNW. The moisture that's to the north is what was sheared overnight and pushed that way.

I still think this is the most accurate depiction of the wave placement.

[bvigal]

this from TWD at 8:05 am
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W SOUTH
OF 20N IS MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 57W AND
60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 54W AND 62W
GOING FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND SPILLING INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA.
On Vis. loop this morning, wave axis looks to be at 65 or 66 W with the most turning at @ 14 N.
They say it's slowed a good bit.

Er, if it was at 63W "BASED ON ...SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC." then is sure can't be at 66W now, traveling 10-15kts. But it does feel like it's near here, and we are 64.6. I'm aware what's said in TWD, this is one rare time I just happen to disagree with them - only slightly.

I'll probably be proved dreadfully wrong and then be afraid to post an opinion again for weeks! Other than the Navy map, I can't corroborate my opinion.... it's derived from being here and watching the weather constantly, experiencing waves coming through all the time, and seeing this one's patterns on satellite and surface data.

[Rainband]

aint lookin to good

for development. It isn't but it could bring florida some much needed rains. Anytime a wave is in the area it helps to increase our moisture. The coastal areas of the western half of Florida are still playing catch up on precip.

[gatorcane]

aint lookin to good

for development. It isn't but it could bring florida some much needed rains. Anytime a wave is in the area it helps to increase our moisture. The coastal areas of the western half of Florida are still playing catch up on precip.

It rains at my house nearly everyday - so we don't need it! But I am in Palm Beach on the east coast. I know the west coast of Florida north of about Ft Myers/Sarasota is very dry.

I know the Tampa area seems to be alot drier year after year - maybe a climate change or something. South Florida in general sees alot more tropical rainfalls.

[tailgater]

I deleted my last post because I'm not sure where it( wave axis) is but the upper trough has weaken the signature a lot, 2 days ago it seem much better. Almost all the reporting stations have easterly winds.

[Rainband]

aint lookin to good

for development. It isn't but it could bring florida some much needed rains. Anytime a wave is in the area it helps to increase our moisture. The coastal areas of the western half of Florida are still playing catch up on precip.

It rains at my house nearly everyday - so we don't need it! But I am in Palm Beach on the east coast. I know the west coast of Florida north of about Ft Myers/Sarasota is very dry.

Yeah they are saying the easterlies will take hold by tomorrow through Tuesday. Late afternoon/evening storms for us. Yippee. Only thing is our area will heat up nice and hot by the time the east coast sea breeze collides with the wet, there will be some severe potential. Feast or famine as usual

[gatorcane]

aint lookin to good

for development. It isn't but it could bring florida some much needed rains. Anytime a wave is in the area it helps to increase our moisture. The coastal areas of the western half of Florida are still playing catch up on precip.

It rains at my house nearly everyday - so we don't need it! But I am in Palm Beach on the east coast. I know the west coast of Florida north of about Ft Myers/Sarasota is very dry.

Yeah they are saying the easterlies will take hold by tomorrow through Tuesday. Late afternoon/evening storms for us. Yippee. Only thing is our area will heat up nice and hot by the time the east coast sea breeze collides with the wet, there will be some severe potential. Feast or famine as usual

Yep easterlies should get going by later today and tomorrow - that means more rainfall for the west coast and less along the east coast - except we'll see some nightime showers roll in off the Atlantic.