96E INVEST at EPAC Thread #1

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 300324
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 PM PDT THU JUN 29 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 925 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
EVENING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON
FRIDAY AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15-20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[HurricaneHunter914]

The EPAC is getting an early lead.

[clfenwi]

Latest position/intensity estimate

30/1200 UTC 11.7N 119.8W T1.0/1.0 96E -- East Pacific Ocean

Comments from the 10Z TWD:

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

LOW PRES NEAR 11N118W...CONVECTION HAS INCREASED WITHIN THE PAST
FEW HOURS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. LATEST IR
IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 360 NM SW AND
240 NM NW QUADRANTS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE LOW. OUTFLOW LOOKS PRETTY GOOD
OVER THIS SYSTEM...AND OVERALL CLOUD/CONVECTION IS BECOMING
SOMEWHAT MORE SYMMETRICAL WITH TIME AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
16 KT. SINCE THE LOW IS BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...THE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR IT TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.

[WindRunner]

ABPZ20 KNHC 301047
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PDT FRI JUN 30 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 925 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SOME
EARLY THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LATER TODAY AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15-20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/AGUIRRE


Sounds like today's the day for TD3-E, folks. I'm guessing the 5pm EDT/2pm PDT advisory sounds like a good bet. That way they can make sure it's looking good with the vis imagery all day - something they like to do before declaring a system.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Good thing this won't be affecting anyone.

[clfenwi]

A pretty big relocation in the SSD's position estimate

30/1800 UTC 9.4N 124.3W T1.0/1.0 96E -- East Pacific Ocean

and less urgency in the 16Z TWD

LOW PRES NEAR 10N120W EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION PRIMARILY ENHANCED WITHIN
180 NM OVER N SEMICIRCLE OF LOW. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS
LOW PRES WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

[CrazyC83]

The EPAC is getting an early lead.

That's normal. This is actually somewhat below normal for this time in the EPac.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Yup the EPAC is a bit below normal, thus far this year. Usually has two, or sometimes even three storms by now most years.

[cycloneye]

ABPZ20 KNHC 302217
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PDT FRI JUN 30 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 1200 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[clfenwi]

GFDL model is thinking we'll get Bud out of this in the next day or so...

...see
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

and

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... nsity1.png

[WindRunner]

Sounds like today's the day for TD3-E, folks. I'm guessing the 5pm EDT/2pm PDT advisory sounds like a good bet. That way they can make sure it's looking good with the vis imagery all day - something they like to do before declaring a system.

Well, that's the last time I make a call without even looking at a system first . . .

[HurricaneHunter914]

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 1200 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

Tropical Storm Bud down the road?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If it can develop deep convection over the LLC. In keep that shear away from it will be a depression. I would watch this not looking very good for 94L and 95L.

[cycloneye]

ABPZ20 KNHC 011108
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PDT SAT JUL 1 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 1400 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE WEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[clfenwi]

SSD's intensity estimate went up again:

01/1200 UTC 11.9N 127.3W T2.0/2.0 96E -- East Pacific Ocean

the 00Z estimate was 1.0 and the 06Z was 1.5

[clfenwi]

Comment from the 16Z TWD

LOW PRES NEAR 12N127W APPEARS TO BE PULLING N OF THE ITCZ THIS
MORNING. A LATE NIGHT CONVECTIVE BURST W OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER
HAS DECREASED THE PAST FEW HOURS WITHIN ONLY SCATTERED MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG...ROUGHLY WITHIN 90 NM W SEMICIRCLE.
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

--

Trick will be not to wander much further north...the 26° C line isn't too far north of the low's current position...

[cycloneye]

ABPZ20 KNHC 011658
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PDT SAT JUL 1 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 1450 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION...THE ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
NOT YET SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED TO DESIGNATE IT AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR THIS SYSTEM
TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB


They are waiting for a burst to then upgrade.

[clfenwi]

If you've been watching the infrared loop, it's unsurprising to see the T number take a fall

01/1800 UTC 12.1N 129.1W T1.5/2.0 96E -- East Pacific Ocean

[cycloneye]

ABPZ20 KNHC 012214
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PDT SAT JUL 1 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1500 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS NOT CHANGED IN
ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

THERE ARE TWO OTHER AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER ACROSS THE TROPICAL
PACIFIC BUT NONE ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



Let's see what they decide to do later tonight or in the morning.

[Epsilon_Fan]

this looks like a TD already! what about the swirl west of the low at 120W, its around 130W and is getting a good share of convection as well... could we have double invests?