Is 2006 the year of the shear?

[cycloneye]

Shear is our friend..

Surely Mr Shear is our friend that does it's work very good when there is plenty of it.Paul,I would not mind to see shear prevailing all season long in the GOM to let those people recuperate entirely from the last 2 landfalling years there.

[Aquawind]

I second that Luis.. but we know that is asking alot as it only takes a few days for a system to work it's way across the GOM. Let's just hope the timing for the systems this year is off.. Everything was in sync last year for all of those Majors.. Cuba and Mexico could use a break to.

[cycloneye]

I second that Luis.. but we know that is asking alot as it only takes a few days for a system to work it's way across the GOM. Let's just hope the timing for the systems this year is off.. Everything was in sync last year for all of those Majors.. Cuba and Mexico could use a break to.

Agree about Cuba and Mexico also can cheer to the shear to catch a break.

[CHRISTY]

Iam currently thinking if shear continues no amount of hot water can save these storms.

[Opal storm]

Iam currently thinking if shear continues no amount of hot water can save these storms.

It's the first day of July,conditions like this are typical for this time of year,

[CHRISTY]

Iam currently thinking if shear continues no amount of hot water can save these storms.

It's the first day of July,conditions like this are typical for this time of year,

Right but i hope folks understand conditions are very different right now then they were in 2005.The number of named storms we had last year is something u dont see very often.The curerent pattern favors a continuation of the cool rainy weather over the Northeast U.S., and hurricane strikes on Florida and the East Coast of the U.S.or recurvature out to sea. The Gulf Coast has lower than average odds of a strike this year.Shear is much higher right now then it was in 2005.My thoughts i would say a month were different but after really lookin at what is going on in the atmosphere u can clearly see 2006 will not be like 2005.but i will say iam still expecting a active season but more in the 13-15 number of storms.

[Opal storm]

Iam currently thinking if shear continues no amount of hot water can save these storms.

It's the first day of July,conditions like this are typical for this time of year,

Right but i hope folks understand conditions are very different right now then they were in 2005.What number of named storms we had last year is something u dont see very often.The curerent pattern favors a continuation of the cool, rainy weather over the Northeast U.S., and hurricane strikes on Florida and the East Coast of the U.S.or recurvature out to sea. The Gulf Coast has lower than average odds of a strike this year.Shear is much higher right now then it was in 2005.My thoughts i would say a month were different but after really lookin at what is going on in the atmosphere u can clearly see 2006 will not be like 2005.but i will say iam still expecting a active season but more in the 12-15 number of storms.

I definitely agree this won't be no 2005.I'm thinking this season will be along the lines of 2004.

[txwatcher91]

Shear is our friend..

Surely Mr Shear is our friend that does it's work very good when there is plenty of it.Paul,I would not mind to see shear prevailing all season long in the GOM to let those people recuperate entirely from the last 2 landfalling years there.

Actually, by keeping the early season storms from developing or intensifying much it can allow water temps to soar until a system comes along and finds those hot waters and a favorable environment, like with Camille and Andrew....

[Patrick99]

This is obviously just speculation, but I'm kind of leaning toward this season being a non-event. I like experiencing hurricanes, but I doubt I will this year.

Starting last fall and continuing through the winter, spring, and early summer, it seems to me that there have been many troughs, rather strong and progressive ones at that. The oceanic high pressure areas don't look like they have been holding particularly strong this year, because there's always some new trough or front blasting through. In 2004 and to some extent 2005, the Bermuda high had a death grip on our weather for weeks, sometimes months at a time, even in winter and spring.

Troughing doesn't look like it's abating, though obviously that could change. At any rate, the chances to me seem slim that any long-tracking storm will traverse the Atlantic this year and hit Florida or get into the Gulf.

It will be interesting to see, however, if this tendency toward disturbed weather near the Bahamas continues. It was obviously a big part of last year's season, stuff getting together there, and then a little high pressure builds in and kicks it west. Doesn't take much for something to hit FL or get into the Gulf, if that's where they form.

[Extremeweatherguy]

This is obviously just speculation, but I'm kind of leaning toward this season being a non-event. I like experiencing hurricanes, but I doubt I will this year.

Starting last fall and continuing through the winter, spring, and early summer, it seems to me that there have been many troughs, rather strong and progressive ones at that. The oceanic high pressure areas don't look like they have been holding particularly strong this year, because there's always some new trough or front blasting through. In 2004 and to some extent 2005, the Bermuda high had a death grip on our weather for weeks, sometimes months at a time, even in winter and spring.

Troughing doesn't look like it's abating, though obviously that could change. At any rate, the chances to me seem slim that any long-tracking storm will traverse the Atlantic this year and hit Florida or get into the Gulf.

It will be interesting to see, however, if this tendency toward disturbed weather near the Bahamas continues. It was obviously a big part of last year's season, stuff getting together there, and then a little high pressure builds in and kicks it west. Doesn't take much for something to hit FL or get into the Gulf, if that's where they form.

A "non-event"? All it takes it one hurricane to make landfall for that statement to become wrong.

[cycloneye]

A "non-event"? All it takes it one hurricane to make landfall for that statement to become wrong.

Wrong or right,he is entitled to post any statement.

[MGC]

Personally, I hope the shear stays strong all season long. We need a break to rebuild and another strong hurricane is the last thing any of us need right now. I'm hoping for a season like 2000 or 2001 when all we had were a few TS hit. But then even a TS can do a good bit of damage as we noted with Allison in 2001......MGC

[Jim Cantore]

It's going to be July 2nd in 4 minutes, we have a LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOONNNNNNNNNG way to go.

[Scorpion]

Shear is not a friend in any way. We are here on this forum to track hurricanes.

[Scorpion]

It's going to be July 2nd in 4 minutes, we have a LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOONNNNNNNNNG way to go.

Exactly. These season cancel posts are irritating, to say the least. I remember last year all the ones that popped up in late July-early August.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I second that.

[gatorcane]

There was plenty of shear last year as well it all depends on where you were looking - look how many waves got ripped apart in the region between Africa and the Leeward Islands. Still though, the SSTs were so warm they managed to stay together until getting closer to the US mainland and Caribbean, where the shear was lower.

June is typically a quite month - yet we have seen several invests that have only been capped due to shear. There is no way that August-October will stay like this since very few years are "shear" years as Derek points out higher up in this thread. Statistically the chances are very low.

If you look at the active years of the 30s-50s, you can find no years where the shear dominated. Furthermore since 1995 we have avg about 15 storms a year with no problem - why would this year suddenly be so inactive? I feel we are in another active cycle so I think the shear is going to be a faint memory in about 4-6 weeks from now.

Looking at the SSTs out there, they are somewhat cooler than last year in the MDR region, but if you look at the GOM and Caribbean they are actually HOTTER this year than last year. The Caribbean and GOM will be a breeding ground for storms come later in the season.

[Opal storm]

Shear is not a friend in any way. We are here on this forum to track hurricanes.

Tracking hurricanes is fun,but it's not very fun seeing a major hurricane make landfall causing death and destruction.Shear is my friend.

[AnnularCane]

Shear is not a friend in any way. We are here on this forum to track hurricanes.

Tracking hurricanes is fun,but it's not very fun seeing a major hurricane make landfall causing death and destruction.Shear is my friend.

Not if it prevents storms from developing out in the Atlantic and therefore possibly turning out to sea.

[Jim Cantore]

SEASON CANCEL SEASON CANCEL SEASON CANCEL!!!!!

remember after people were saying that last year we had Katrina, Rita, and Wilma.

dont tempt nature.