When do you evacuate?

[CHRISTY]

I don't evacuate.

It may cost u your life one day.if u live in a evacuation zone and ur told to leave the area my advise is u should, cause if u stay u may be on ur own.Think about it

ps!if ur not in a evacuation zone then u should have a hurricane plan in place for u and ur family and be ready to put it into action if ur area is threaten by a hurricane.

[SeaBrz_FL]

I leave at least 12 hours before I expect the local officials to call for a mandatory evacuation. It might mean an extra night stay in an inland hotel room, but it's easily worth not fighting the traffic.

[SeaBrz_FL]

I don't evacuate.

What does that mean!? You didn't need to in the past two years, but I seriously hope you have a plan together. In Jupiter, you barely escaped Frances, Jeanne, and Wilma and it's just a matter of time ....

[Jim Cantore]

I don't evacuate.

Hurricane Katrina, with warning, 1,836 people Killed. most if not all didnt, or couldn't evacuate. Thats a clear messege to get out of the way next time.

[weatherwindow]

When I think I might drown.
Here, it's a crapshoot. I'm only a few feet above sea level and a few blocks from the ocean.And the worst damage I've seen locally was from a tropical storm (Mitch-spawned tornadoes) and a far-away cat 2-3 (Wilma).

One of the simplest things to consider: Leave if you want to save your car.

.....second that!....the keys make poor lifeboats ....whatever billy wagner suggests i do...any serious threat of cat 3 is a good tipping point. as i point out in every hurricane briefing, the ugliest time in the keys is most often after, rather than during the storm. the infrastructure is just too vulnerable, the location too remote and the highway too easily flooded to take a chance. if something truly serious impacted the keys, emergency response and resupply could be slowed too a crawl and leave the middle and lower keys virtually on their own for up to a week. wouldnt be pretty....rich

[Grease Monkey]

I most likely wouldn't leave for a Cat3 and under. I would probably start thinking about it with a CAT4+

[SCshorty]

I stayed through Hugo, didn't even think of leaving for Floyd. Farthest I would go is my parents house, and they are only 10 minutes away. That wouldn't be for an evacuation...it would just be so we could take care of each other. I sold my house and rent now, so I would rather go help take care of their home than stay to protect the apartment. They don't live in a flood zone, but are about 2 miles from the river. My old home was maybe a quarter mile max from the river. Never had a flooding problem. Anyhow, I just doubt I would ever evacuate. May not be the best decision, but it is just the truth.

[baygirl_1]

We head upstate to my sister's home when it's a major hurricane threatening our area. We live well inland, but are responsible for my mother who's in her mid-80's. We just don't want to chance a medical emergency coming up in the middle of a storm when we can't get help. My sis and her husband are doctors, so we have built-in medical assistance when we go up there-- even if the storm causes problems up there, too (as Ivan did). If not for my mother, we'd probably stay here as our home is well-built and only 10 years old.

[Opal storm]

Remember to prepare for a hurricane 1 category higher than what they forecast.For example if they forecast a cat 3 to hit,prepare as if it is going to be a cat 4.So if you plan to leave for a cat 4 or 5,I would leave if the NHC has you in the path of a cat 3,becuase it could strengthen to a cat 4+ just before landfall with no time to evacuate.

[Scorpion]

According to the hurricane preparedness guides I live in an evacuation zone for a major hurricane. However, the storm surge from even a Cat 5 would probably be 10 feet at most. That's not going to go very far inland. So the only thing to worry about is wind damage, and this is a new concrete home. With shutters it should fare fine. The chances of experiencing actual Cat 4/5 winds is remote even in a Cat 5 landfaller.

[duris]

Ordinarily, we leave for a 2 or above, usually in the middle of the night a day or two before landfall, and we head north of Lake Pontchartrain to near Hammond. Right now, until the levees are shown to be safe, we'll probably leave for anything above a tropical disturbance since we live in an area flooded by Katrina (got a new concrete floor today, woohoo!). Plus, our firm's evacuation plan will require key personnel to leave at a certain point and head to Jackson or Memphis. Not sure what that point is yet.

[skysummit]

....also, remember, if you NEVER experienced hurricane force winds before, and a Cat 1 is heading for you, you're going to be in for a wild ride if you receive those 74+ mph winds. If you've never experienced it before, people don't realize just how strong a 74mph wind is.....they may tend to believe they're receiving over 100mph winds, but in reality, they're not.

[Opal storm]

....also, remember, if you NEVER experienced hurricane force winds before, and a Cat 1 is heading for you, you're going to be in for a wild ride if you receive those 74+ mph winds. If you've never experienced it before, people don't realize just how strong a 74mph wind is.....they may tend to believe they're receiving over 100mph winds, but in reality, they're not.

So true.I experienced 8 hours of cat 1 winds during Ivan,it was not fun.Probably the scariest night of my life.

[Ixolib]

As many of us from the MS Gulf Coast have said in these types of threads - and there have been many - since last August, it's NOT the "category" that should cause your decision. It is how far above sea level you are and what the expected surge is going to be for your local area.

Wind is generally survivable if you're in a well-built structure. Rising sea water, on the other hand, is generally not survivable - no matter how strong or well-built your structure is...

Even after all the talk about surge, the replies in this thread (and all of the other similar ones that have preceded it) indicate to me that there are STILL a lot of naive folks out there when it comes to wind/surge/category/evacuation.

I too used to be equally as naive. Not any more...

[Scorpion]

I agree with you. If I lived right on the beach or if there was no continental shelf I would definitely evacuate.

[Dean4Storms]

A Cat 3 or stronger!!!

[wxman57]

A few points:

1. Wilma went from a 65 mph TS to a 165 mph Cat 5 within 24 hours.

2. Rita went from a 65 mph TS to a 165 mph Cat 5 within 36 hours.

3. Saffir-Simpson deals only with peak winds, not surge. There is no such thing as a "Cat 3 surge". Katrina and Rita proved that. It's the radius and extent of maximum winds that determines the surge, not the peak in any one quadrant of a hurricane. Katrina's "Cat 3 surge" was larger than Camille's "Cat 5 surge". Rita was basically a borderline 2-3 at landfall and produced a 15-20 foot surge.

4. Our ability to predict hurricane intensity has not improved significantly in the past several decades. The explosions of Wilma and Rita were not well-predicted.

5. You'll have to make your decision to evacuate 2-3 days before landfall, long before you really know how strong a hurricane might get when it hits. That's easily long enough for that moderate TS to become a Cat 3-4 hurricane before moving ashore.

Bottom line is that if you're in any surge zone you'd better be prepared to evacuate for ANY tropical cyclone, no matter how strong it is 4-5 days out. You won't be able to wait to see what the landfall intensity will be before having to make your decision to leave. Forecast intensities could be 1, 2, or 3 categories off 3-4 days away from landfall. So those of you that say you'll leave for a Cat 3 or stronger need to consider that you'll need to evacuate when that strong TS or Cat 1 is heading at you 2-3 days away, as it could easily be that Cat 3 at landfall - even though it's predicted to "only" be a Cat 1 or Cat 2.

[Ixolib]

A few points:

1. Wilma went from a 65 mph TS to a 165 mph Cat 5 within 24 hours.

2. Rita went from a 65 mph TS to a 165 mph Cat 5 within 36 hours.

3. Saffir-Simpson deals only with peak winds, not surge. There is no such thing as a "Cat 3 surge". Katrina and Rita proved that. It's the radius and extent of maximum winds that determines the surge, not the peak in any one quadrant of a hurricane. Katrina's "Cat 3 surge" was larger than Camille's "Cat 5 surge". Rita was basically a borderline 2-3 at landfall and produced a 15-20 foot surge.

4. Our ability to predict hurricane intensity has not improved significantly in the past several decades. The explosions of Wilma and Rita were not well-predicted.

5. You'll have to make your decision to evacuate 2-3 days before landfall, long before you really know how strong a hurricane might get when it hits. That's easily long enough for that moderate TS to become a Cat 3-4 hurricane before moving ashore.

Bottom line is that if you're in any surge zone you'd better be prepared to evacuate for ANY tropical cyclone, no matter how strong it is 4-5 days out. You won't be able to wait to see what the landfall intensity will be before having to make your decision to leave. Forecast intensities could be 1, 2, or 3 categories off 3-4 days away from landfall. So those of you that say you'll leave for a Cat 3 or stronger need to consider that you'll need to evacuate when that strong TS or Cat 1 is heading at you 2-3 days away, as it could easily be that Cat 3 at landfall - even though it's predicted to "only" be a Cat 1 or Cat 2.

Somebody ought to put the above post in a nice frame and sticky it at the top of board for the rest of the season. It is, without a doubt, one of the best responses to this issue I've yet to see on S2K.

Every point is "spot on". Great post, wxman!!

[spinfan4eva]

I think it depends on where on the coast you live--NC, FLA, LA.... But I generally hold a wait and see approach when a hurricane warning is issued. Lots of crying wolf goes on in NE Fla with media saying "get out! its coming!!!!" every time the NHC puts us in a cane warning then the storm hits the carolinas or South Fla. I have found that it is best to use your own judgement and watch radar and leave when you feel the need and not when someone screamin that the 'sky is falling' tells you to do so. Think for yourself.

[JonathanBelles]

i leave when a cat 2 is expected to be within 50 miles, a cat 3 is expected within 100 miles, and when a cat 4 or 5 is expected within 200 miles of my house