NW Carribean

[jasons2k]

You can see on the sat the wave from Cuba southward towards Belize moving west, but it really is a tough call. Tomorrow the wave will be along the Yucatan coastline then eventually in the BOC and then Texas will get bombed again with rain which you guys still need.

Umm, I got over 20+ inches of rain in almost a month time frame. We don't need any in SE Texas.

Hmmm, you sure you are in Houston? According to records I have looked at you only received 7.84 inches in June....

Ummmmmmm, Houston's a pretty big place

[HouTXmetro]

You can see on the sat the wave from Cuba southward towards Belize moving west, but it really is a tough call. Tomorrow the wave will be along the Yucatan coastline then eventually in the BOC and then Texas will get bombed again with rain which you guys still need.

Umm, I got over 20+ inches of rain in almost a month time frame. We don't need any in SE Texas.

Hmmm, you sure you are in Houston? According to records I have looked at you only received 7.84 inches in June....

Ummmmmmm, Houston's a pretty big place

In addition to that just two weeks ago I was stuck in traffic for three hours because the freeway was underwater, then I had to wade through 2.5 feet of water to reach my home.

But back on Topic......

[HurricaneHunter914]

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND FLORIDA ARE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE BEEN RISING IN THE AREA
AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

According to the NHC this convection in the NW Caribbean is part of th ULL.

[TampaFl]

Yes I agree its a wave interacting with the ULL clearly moving west towards the Yucatan as shown on the visible and IR.

Yes it's interacting with a ULL, but it's the new one forming just south of the tip of western Cuba. Clearly visible on WV loop. TUTT may be setting up here.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

According to NWS Melbourne you are correct: Check it out.


FXUS62 KMLB 061311
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
910 AM EDT THU JUL 6 2006

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...WATER VAPOR/RUC IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEFORMING UPPER LEVEL
LOW WHICH WAS OVER THE ERN STRAITS THIS TIME WED HAS ACTUALLY SPLIT
INTO TWO SEPARATE VORT CTRS. ONE IS DRIFTING NR THE SW FL COAST...
WHILE THE OTHER IS SPINNING UP SOUTH OF THE WRN TIP OF CUBA. STRONG
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ALSO SEEN DIGGING SEWD FROM THE MID MS TO THE
OH AND TN VLYS.

AT THE SFC...RIDGE AXIS EAST OF FL LIES AROUND 25N WEAK TROUGH WHICH
HAD BEEN OVER THE STATE WED APPEARS TO HAVE DRIFTED INTO THE ERN
GULF AND DAMPENED OUT. WEAK COOL FRONTAL BDRY STRETCHES OUT ACROSS
NRN LA/MS/AL/GA. MORNING XMR RAOB/915MHZ PROFILER SHOWS SSW-SW FLOW
UP THROUGH 12-15KFT WITH THE RAOB SHOWING 2.1" PWAT. LAPSE RATES
REMAIN WEAK EVEN THOUGH H50 TEMPS HAVE COOLED SLIGHTLY TO ABOUT -7C.
MEAN STEERING WINDS ARE FROM THE SE @ 8-12KTS WHICH WILL PUSH TSRA
TWD THE EAST COAST. EXPECT WRLY COMPONENT TO FLOW WILL NOT BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO INHIBIT ECSB FORMATION...HOWEVER THE BDRY SHOULD PUSH
INLAND NOT MUCH FARTHER THAN THE ST JOHNS RIVER...AT BEST.

FCST...WILL MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND MAY
ACTUALLY NUDGE POPS UP 10 TO 80 PCT ALONG THE EAST COAST OWING TO THE
ANTICIPATED PRESENCE OF THE SLOW MOVING ECSB. WILL ALSO NUDGE DOWN THE
SVR WIND THREAT AND BUMP HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL UP A SCOSH THERE.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS/WIND SPEEDS LOOK FINE IN THE CWF FIRST PD. HOWEVER...
PLAN TO VEER THE WIND DIR OVER TO SW FOR ALL LEGS...PERHAPS S-SW @
COF-JUP.

&&

.AVIATION...NMRS SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN. ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD NEWD
FROM THE ISM-MCO-ORL-SFB CORRIDOR (16-20Z) AND PILE UP ALONG THE
EAST COAST (DAB-TIX-MLB-VRB-FPR) SITES (22Z-02Z). CONVECTIVE WIND
GUST POTENTIAL LOOKS A LITTLE MORE LIMITED THAN BEFORE BASED UPON
12Z RAOB DATA.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

CRISTALDI

[HurricaneHunter914]

But there is a possibility that this convection near Cuba could split from the ULL.

Edit: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

[rockyman]

Looks like the place to watch is around with western tip of Cuba (on Caribbean side)...Shear is moderately low and decreasing, upper divergence is high, lower convergence is increasing, some model support (NAM from yesterday), convection is strong, the ULL is moving away, climo-favoreed area, tropical wave located here (wind shift present)

[HurricaneHunter914]

This will be an area to watch as conditions continue to become more favorable in the Caribbean.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The ULL interacting with a tropical wave
near Cuba fueled convection around Cuba...I suspected yesterday and I'm starting to get more concerned today that if this convection remains
there while the ULL gets pushed northward and northeastward...it could
develop if shear lessens with those warm SSTs...there is some very
high oceanic heat content south of Cuba...
This bears watching IMO.

[rockyman]

Looks like anything south of Cuba would turn northward in the eastern Gomex:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

[HurricaneHunter914]

And right now the NW Caribbean and the Eastern GOM are looking favorable for development.

[southerngale]

You can see on the sat the wave from Cuba southward towards Belize moving west, but it really is a tough call. Tomorrow the wave will be along the Yucatan coastline then eventually in the BOC and then Texas will get bombed again with rain which you guys still need.

Umm, I got over 20+ inches of rain in almost a month time frame. We don't need any in SE Texas.

Hmmm, you sure you are in Houston? According to records I have looked at you only received 7.84 inches in June....

Hmmm, are you sure that the 7.84 inches is the total for ALL of Houston? I didn't think so, and your tone suggest he's lying. Not nice.

Just so ya know, Beaumont is still officially in a drought, according to airport readings, but if you tried to tell any sane person in Beaumont or the surrounding areas that we're in a drought, they would think you had lost your mind. About 10 minutes from the airport, one area received 16 inches of rain in just 7 hours a few weeks ago, plus more than that over the several days of rain we received. This area has had flooding THREE times since Memorial Day weekend, completely wiping out the severe to extreme drought we were in, yet the airport still officially shows a drought.

From a local met, Greg Bostwick, on June 21st, BEFORE this last week of rain we've received, "By the way, at my home north of Winnie, I have recorded about the same amount of rain since Memorial Day that the airport has had all year long...26 inches. Also, just remember, no one lives at the airport so their readings are just for "official" purposes. I would much rather know how much rain falls where the people live."

Perhaps you shouldn't jump to conclusions that people don't know what they're talking about where they live.

[southerngale]

A trough in July is a little different from a trough in September. Very rare to get a front down into Louisiana in July. It might be something to see how this all plays out.

Rare, yes, but not impossible.

From this morning's discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
406 AM CDT THU JUL 6 2006

DESPITE THE FACT IT IS JULY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MAKING GOOD
PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BY TOMORROW. FRONT WILL HARDLY
BE NOTICEABLE TODAY OTHER THAN TO MAKE WINDS BRIEFLY
NORTHEASTERLY...BUT DRIER AIR FILTERING IN WILL MAKE A NOTICEABLE
REDUCTION IN PRECIP COVERAGE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

Big blowup in convection with this wave.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I see a decent to moderately vigorous tropical wave moving just south
of Cuba. If shear decreases slow development is possible...over time...
right now no development is taking place...but over time...some
could take place over the Western Caribbean IMO, but I am an
amateur, so my opinion is not based on careful analysis.

But if conditions regarding shear do become more favorable, I do think
some development may take place, especially with oceanic
heat content as high as it is just south of Cuba, in the NW Caribbean, and
in the southeastern GOM.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

Big blowup in convection with this wave.

Thank you for that link. I have been looking for it.
It does appear that an area of heavy convection has
developed near the Central America coastline near the
NW Caribbean and South of Cuba. If shear lessens...this
area could get interesting.

[HurricaneHunter914]

If shear does continue to lessen the NHC might mention something in the TWO.

[mvtrucking]

The pressure's are still up in the area south of Cuba. Here are 2 buoy reports from there.
42057: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... t=E&tz=STN

(Reporting East winds at 25.3 kts and gusts to 27.2 @ 11:50 am)

42056: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

(Reporting ESE winds at 17.5 kts with gusts to 21.4 kts at 11:50 am. Problems with satellite transmission causing data loss)

[HURAKAN]

The tropical wave will probably cross toward the Bay of Campeche, how is the environment in the area for development?

[Ivanhater]

There is an outflow boundary currently racing off to the west from the Thunderstorm complex meaning there is no low level convergence taking place right now....this will not develop anytime soon....however if it persists we may see development.

[HurricaneHunter914]

If this is still here tomorrow then yeah it will have be watched for any signs of development.