96L Invest,E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

[kenl01]

IWIC Worldwide Tropical Weather Discussion - July 08 2006 - 23:30 UTC

The forecast lull of tropical cyclone formation has panned out. Other than the disorganized low that passed over eastern North Carolina, there has been little activity since Alberto. 2006 is currently three named storms behind 2006's record setting pace. 2006 will be 4NS behind if a storm does not form by July 12th, the anniversary of Emily. Today, there are still no signs of imminent development. The only games in town are a weak wave over the central Atlantic and a trough over the Gulf of Mexico. The CATL wave is lacking surface convergence, bursting convection is lacking, and the wave overall is highly disorganized. Upper level shear will become slightly stronger over the wave as it heads westward. Model guidance doesn't want to do anything with the wave either. The GFS is most aggressive, if you can call it that. The 18Z run shows a weak, inverted trough that isn't closed off. Lowest progged surface pressure is only 1014MB, and keep in mind that is in the deep tropics. Taking it once step further, the GFS has had a tendency to over amplify tropical waves passing over the Mean Development Region. The overly aggressive Canadian model isn't even progging the formation of a closed off low. Meanwhile, the stalled boundary over the Gulf of Mexico is even more appealing for those that want the lull to continue. Shear is borderline extreme over much of the Gulf, with northwesterly winds streaming into the area around the central U.S. ridge. The convection being generated over the open waters is not tropical in nature.

[bvigal]

GFDL just added to models, is only running it as far as 57W.

[canegrl04]

The wave looks sickly right now

[clfenwi]

I am sure this is likely Bogus, but it is the closest ship to the system and well...NE win winds and pressure of 1007.2mb


09/09 V2BN9 10.9 -42.8 26.5 22.8 050 13 1007.2 0.0 27.7 V2BN9

Yeah, the pressure is 3+ millibars too low...here's the ob from 12 hours earlier

08/21 V2BN9 8.4 -41.5 26.8 23.2 060 12 1007.0 -1.0 28.4 V2BN9

and 12 hours before that

08/09 V2BN9 5.9 -40.2 26.1 24.4 050 6 1008.2 1.0 28.9 V2BN9

that particular ob got purged during QC.

[bkdelong]

[b]NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962006) ON 20060709 0600 UTC

What's the URL to the text of that?

[Ivanhater]

Good morning everyone! Wow invest already!

[webke]

Floater one is now on 96L

[gatorcane]

Morning everybody, looks like the board was right and the NHC was wrong about this thing becoming an invest so quickly - based on the latest NHC discussion I see they have changed their opinion....

go storm2k!

[cycloneye]

[b]NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962006) ON 20060709 0600 UTC

What's the URL to the text of that?

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/?C=M;O=D

Here is the link to the texts of the models.

[Ivanhater]

Hmm, I don't see 96L on the NRL site

[cycloneye]

Hmm, I don't see 96L on the NRL site

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

It has been in the backup site of NRL since early this morning.

[Ivanhater]

Hmm, I don't see 96L on the NRL site

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

It has been in the backup site of NRL since early this morning.

ah, thanks

[cycloneye]

By the way Ivan the main site of NRL has had problems in the past and the backup site continues updating.Right now the main site has not updated the WPAC new storm Bilis which was upgraded overnight but they still have NONAME.

[Derek Ortt]

I dont see why this became an invest... its just an open wave with only signs of a minimal circulation and very disorganized convection.

Have noticed this season that invests are more poorly organized than years past

[skysummit]

I dont see why this became an invest... its just an open wave with only signs of a minimal circulation and very disorganized convection.

Have noticed this season that invests are more poorly organized than years past

Well the structure of this wave is probably one of the best, if not the best out of all of them this season so far. Plus, it's a little closer to home. The NHC says slow development is possible, therefore I have no problem with it being an Invest.

[gatorcane]

I dont see why this became an invest... its just an open wave with only signs of a minimal circulation and very disorganized convection.

Have noticed this season that invests are more poorly organized than years past

It does look worse today than yesterday. It really looks like it is taking the fate of 93L from 2 weeks back...by the time it gets to the islands it may have lost any kind of "spin" and just be an open wave that gets ripped apart in the eastern Caribbean graveyard.

[Ivanhater]

By the way Ivan the main site of NRL has had problems in the past and the backup site continues updating.Right now the main site has not updated the WPAC new storm Bilis which was upgraded overnight but they still have NONAME.

Thanks for the info

[cycloneye]

Floater 1 Infared Image

Floater 1 Visible Image

Floater 1 is over 96L.It looks somewhat less organized than last night.Let's see in the coming hours how it evolves.No 12:00z tropical models run has been out so far.

[Scorpion]

IWIC Worldwide Tropical Weather Discussion - July 08 2006 - 23:30 UTC

The forecast lull of tropical cyclone formation has panned out. Other than the disorganized low that passed over eastern North Carolina, there has been little activity since Alberto. 2006 is currently three named storms behind 2006's record setting pace. 2006 will be 4NS behind if a storm does not form by July 12th, the anniversary of Emily. Today, there are still no signs of imminent development. The only games in town are a weak wave over the central Atlantic and a trough over the Gulf of Mexico. The CATL wave is lacking surface convergence, bursting convection is lacking, and the wave overall is highly disorganized. Upper level shear will become slightly stronger over the wave as it heads westward. Model guidance doesn't want to do anything with the wave either. The GFS is most aggressive, if you can call it that. The 18Z run shows a weak, inverted trough that isn't closed off. Lowest progged surface pressure is only 1014MB, and keep in mind that is in the deep tropics. Taking it once step further, the GFS has had a tendency to over amplify tropical waves passing over the Mean Development Region. The overly aggressive Canadian model isn't even progging the formation of a closed off low. Meanwhile, the stalled boundary over the Gulf of Mexico is even more appealing for those that want the lull to continue. Shear is borderline extreme over much of the Gulf, with northwesterly winds streaming into the area around the central U.S. ridge. The convection being generated over the open waters is not tropical in nature.

This is absurd. Why are they trying to compare this season to 2005? It's just stupid.

[Ivanhater]

Steve Lyons just discussed this wave, he said it is possible a low pressure center could form on the southern portion of the wave.