Tropical Depression Emilia (06E) in EPAC=Last Advisory

bombarderoazul · #21 Postby **bombarderoazul** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 4:22 pm

There is no recon in the pacific, so we don't know for sure.

Cyclenall · #22 Postby **Cyclenall** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 5:46 pm

bombarderoazul wrote:There is no recon in the pacific, so we don't know for sure.

I think there is only recon in very rare cases. If there is a category 5 hurricane, they will send out recon that far. The reason is to get the records and hard data. If there is a major system heading for land (Mexico), they might send recon. This is what I recall.

From the NHC's TWO:

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...CENTERED ABOUT 550 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED
DURING THE DAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMATION
APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING.

This doesn't sound right. Just look what they said about this system earlier in the day. They said the shear is lowering and should become more favorable for development. Now the potential for a TD formation is diminishing? Odd...

#23 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 7:13 am

ABPZ20 KNHC 191037
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PDT WED JUL 19 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DANIEL...LOCATED ABOUT 975 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...CENTERED ABOUT 560 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

The system is having a tough time organizing due to shear.

Cyclenall · #24 Postby **Cyclenall** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 11:38 am

This is going to sound weird, but I had a feeling right from the start it would not form. I'm not sure why, but somehow I thought it would not be the next storm. I'm rooting for it to form anyways though because I want to see more cyclones out there. The NHC is talking about how the models don't think it will form and that another wave will form and "eat" invest 92E alive.

Here is the latest TWO from the NHC:

NHC wrote:A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 525 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO IS MOVING SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...AND SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

Come on invest 92E!

#25 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 12:56 pm

here comes yet another for the EPAC :roll:

Cyclenall · #26 Postby **Cyclenall** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 1:13 pm

gatorcane wrote:here comes yet another for the EPAC

I would only say that if a TCFA was issued :wink:

.

#27 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 5:45 pm

ABPZ20 KNHC 192239
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PDT WED JUL 19 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DANIEL...LOCATED ABOUT 1020 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 465 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND
THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN

#28 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 20, 2006 7:16 am

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201017
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PDT THU JUL 20 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON MAJOR
HURRICANE DANIEL...LOCATED ABOUT 1080 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO REMAINS
WELL-ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN

#29 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 20, 2006 6:19 pm

ABPZ20 KNHC 202257
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PDT THU JUL 20 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON MAJOR
HURRICANE DANIEL...LOCATED ABOUT 1130 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT 410 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS
CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION. THIS SYSTEM STILL
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS CENTERED ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY
DISORGANIZED...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT
AS IT HEADS SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN

The EPAC still is very active,apart from Bud,Carlotta and Daniel,two more areas of interest may form into cyclones in the comming days.

#30 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 21, 2006 8:37 am

It looks like after a few days being affected by shear,the system now is better organized and a TD may be forming.

#31 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Jul 21, 2006 8:43 am

At least the convective ara has increased. If these continues I would expect a tropical depression to form this afternoon or night!

#32 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 21, 2006 8:59 am

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP062006) ON 20060721 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060721 1200 060722 0000 060722 1200 060723 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060723 1200 060724 1200 060725 1200 060726 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.9N LONCUR = 103.0W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 11.6N LONM12 = 102.8W DIRM12 = 316DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 10.9N LONM24 = 102.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

A new depression is born.The header changed to= (EP062006) Depression #6 in EPAC.First advisory at 8 AM PDT or 11 AM EDT.NRL changed to noname too.

#33 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 21, 2006 9:46 am

WTPZ41 KNHC 211442
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 21 2006

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT NHC HAS BEEN MONITORING FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS DEVELOPED A SURFACE CIRCULATION AND ENOUGH
DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. VISIBLE
IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION IS SHEARED AND THE CENTER IS
LOCATED TO THE EAST THE MAIN CONVECTION. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY RELAX AND THE OCEAN IS WARM. THEREFORE...A GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320 DEGREES AT 3 KNOTS.
THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK...SO A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
INDICATED FOR A DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS INDICATED AS A MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. BOTH ECMWF AND THE GFDL HAVE A MORE
AGGRESSIVE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A WEST-NORTHWEST
MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO OPTIONS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/1500Z 12.1N 103.1W 25 KT
12HR VT 22/0000Z 12.3N 103.5W 30 KT
24HR VT 22/1200Z 13.0N 104.5W 35 KT
36HR VT 23/0000Z 14.0N 106.0W 35 KT
48HR VT 23/1200Z 15.0N 107.5W 40 KT
72HR VT 24/1200Z 17.0N 109.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 25/1200Z 19.0N 112.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 26/1200Z 22.0N 115.0W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

WWWW

Emilia will be the next name for the EPAC.

Cyclenall · #34 Postby **Cyclenall** » Fri Jul 21, 2006 10:56 am

I had a dream this morning that Emilia or TD6-E looked just like he looks now and that she wrapped the convection around and a eye poked out.

I think she will strengthen faster then what is on the discussion. I noticed that she is still at 25 knots, I thought the NHC only starts at 30 Knots? I expect a TS in 18 hours.

#35 Postby **AnnularCane** » Fri Jul 21, 2006 2:50 pm

Cyclenall wrote:I had a dream this morning that Emilia or TD6-E looked just like he looks now and that she wrapped the convection around and a eye poked out.

You seem to dream about these storms a lot. :wink:

I think this poor little TD needs help.

Derek Ortt · #36 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri Jul 21, 2006 2:55 pm

recon is also cent out for CPAC systems

If Daniel trend sto the west, as some of the latest models are suggesting, it would likely result in the deployment of some of the places at Keesler at Honolulu

#37 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 21, 2006 3:34 pm

WTPZ41 KNHC 212032
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 21 2006

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE
DEPRESSION SINCE THIS MORNING. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED ON
THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND
SHEAR. DESPITE THE WARM OCEAN AND THE EXPECTED RELAXATION OF THE
SHEAR...GUIDANCE IN GENERAL ONLY SHOWS A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING...
AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL.

THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AND THE
BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 335 DEGREES AT 3 KNOTS. THIS
GENERAL SLOW MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THEREAFTER...A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS A MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS
NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE CONSORTIUM OF THE GFDL-NOGAPS-ECMWF MODELS BASED ON THE
FACT THAT THE GFS IS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/2100Z 12.7N 103.3W 25 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 13.3N 103.6W 30 KT
24HR VT 22/1800Z 14.5N 105.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 23/0600Z 15.5N 106.5W 40 KT
48HR VT 23/1800Z 16.5N 108.0W 45 KT
72HR VT 24/1800Z 18.0N 110.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 25/1800Z 20.0N 113.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 26/1800Z 22.0N 115.0W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Shear is the factor that is not letting the TD get better organized and be a storm.Any relaxation of the shear will make it turn into Emilia.

Cyclenall · #38 Postby **Cyclenall** » Fri Jul 21, 2006 7:45 pm

AnnularCane wrote:
Cyclenall wrote:I had a dream this morning that Emilia or TD6-E looked just like he looks now and that she wrapped the convection around and a eye poked out.

You seem to dream about these storms a lot.

I think this poor little TD needs help.

I said I dream about any tropical cyclone or system worldwide that I am watching every single morning/night. It's crazy, and the dreams stop around December or when there are no storms. I love weather too much...

This TD needs quite a bit of help. Shoo shear! :lol:

Derek Ortt wrote:recon is also cent out for CPAC systems

If Daniel trend sto the west, as some of the latest models are suggesting, it would likely result in the deployment of some of the places at Keesler at Honolulu

Great information here, but wrong topic! :wink:

#39 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 21, 2006 7:54 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX (EP062006) ON 20060722 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060722 0000 060722 1200 060723 0000 060723 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.1N 103.4W 14.1N 105.3W 15.1N 107.3W 16.2N 109.1W
BAMM 13.1N 103.4W 14.3N 105.1W 15.5N 107.0W 16.8N 109.0W
LBAR 13.1N 103.4W 13.8N 104.8W 15.2N 106.5W 16.4N 108.4W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 51KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060724 0000 060725 0000 060726 0000 060727 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.3N 110.9W 19.3N 114.2W 21.2N 117.3W 23.3N 120.6W
BAMM 17.9N 111.0W 19.7N 115.3W 20.3N 119.5W 20.5N 123.4W
LBAR 17.6N 110.5W 20.3N 114.2W 23.5N 117.4W 27.1N 120.6W
SHIP 59KTS 70KTS 71KTS 63KTS
DSHP 59KTS 70KTS 71KTS 63KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.1N LONCUR = 103.4W DIRCUR = 340DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 11.9N LONM12 = 103.0W DIRM12 = 346DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 11.6N LONM24 = 102.8W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 160NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Still a TD but a bit stronger,now at 30kts.

Cyclenall · #40 Postby **Cyclenall** » Fri Jul 21, 2006 8:28 pm

That's good news. Is there a shear map that is correct and easy to read for the Epac?

Tropical Depression Emilia (06E) in EPAC=Last Advisory

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