04 vs 05 vs 06 Scorecard

[CrazyC83]

My August prediction is 6 named storms (inc. Chris), 4 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes.

[dwg71]

UPDATED AS OF 8/7

Information purposes only - not an opinion on past or future storms. Just a comparative to consider.

2004 as of August 7th 1/1/1 Next storm Bonnie formed on 8/9, and Charley on 8/10.

2005 as of August 7th 9/4/2 Next storm Jose formed on 8/22.

2006 as of August 7th 3/0/0 Next storm ?

Since 1995 there have been only four years that we have not had a hurricane by this point in the season.

1998 Bonnie became a hurricane on 8/22
1999 Bret became a hurricane on 8/21
2001 Erin became a hurricane on 9/9
2002 Gustav became a hurricane on 9/11 (the lastest the first hurricane of the season has formed since current "active" period began in 1995)

Can you imagine the "season cancel" threads if we didnt get a hurricane in August.

[Jim Cantore]

I dont want to imagine the season cancel threads if we dont get a Hurricane this month.

[AussieMark]

remember in 2001

the first hurricane was Erin in early September

by the time Olga had blown out in November there had been 9

[Stormtrack]

remember in 2001

the first hurricane was Erin in early September

by the time Olga had blown out in November there had been 9

The 1st hurricane may not have occured until September but before June was over we had already had a tropical storm (Allison) which killed 41 people in several states and caused 5 billion dollars in damage, mostly in the Houston area but it killed people as far away as Pennsylvania.

[dwg71]

Information purposes only - not an opinion on past or future storms. Just a comparative to consider.

2004 as of August 10th 3/2/2 Next storm Danielle 8/14

2005 as of August 10th 9/4/2 Next storm Jose formed on 8/22.

2006 as of August 10th 3/0/0 Next storm ?

Since 1995 there have been only four years that we have not had a hurricane by this point in the season.

1998 Bonnie became a hurricane on 8/22
1999 Bret became a hurricane on 8/21
2001 Erin became a hurricane on 9/9
2002 Gustav became a hurricane on 9/11 (the lastest the first hurricane of the season has formed since current "active" period began in 1995)

Can you imagine the "season cancel" threads if we didnt get a hurricane in August.

[AussieMark]

1998 had 10 hurricanes - 3 majors
1999 had 8 - 5 majors
2001 had 9 - 4 majors
2002 had 4 - 2 majors

[dwg71]

Information purposes only - not an opinion on past or future storms. Just a comparative to consider.

2004 as of August 15th 5/3/2 Next storm Frances 8/25

2005 as of August 15th 9/4/2 Next storm Jose formed on 8/22.

2006 as of August 15th 3/0/0 Next storm ?


2002 Gustav became a hurricane on 9/11 (the lastest the first hurricane of the season has formed since 1941 when #4 formed on 9/25)

[wxman57]

Maybe back to a normal Year from last year

a normal year is about 10 named storms, I say almost no doubt we have more then that.

I would question whether "normal" for today is the same as the "normal" over the past 100 years. With increased satellite coverage these days and the recent decision to name subtropical storms, I think the new "normal" will be closer to 12 named storms per season. How many of the 2005 storms would not have been named in, say, 1950? Or even 1970?

[dwg71]

Information purposes only - not an opinion on past or future storms. Just a comparative to consider.

2004 as of August 22nd 5/3/2 Next storm Frances 8/25

2005 as of August 22nd 10/4/2 Next storm Katrina formed on 8/24.

2006 as of August 22nd 3/0/0 Next storm ?

Since 1995 there have been only two years that we have not had a hurricane by this point in the season.


2001 Erin became a hurricane on 9/9
2002 Gustav became a hurricane on 9/11 (the lastest the first hurricane of the season has formed since 1941)

[dwg71]

Information purposes only - not an opinion on past or future storms. Just a comparative to consider.

2004 as of August 24TH 5/3/2 Next storm Frances 8/25

2005 as of August 24TH 11/5/3 Next storm Lee formed on 8/31.

2006 as of August 24TH 4/0/0 Next storm ?


In 2002 Gustav became a hurricane on 9/11 (the lastest the first hurricane of the season has formed since 1941)

[DESTRUCTION5]

Information purposes only - not an opinion on past or future storms. Just a comparative to consider.

2004 as of August 24TH 5/3/2 Next storm Frances 8/25

2005 as of August 24TH 11/5/3 Next storm Lee formed on 8/31.

2006 as of August 24TH 4/0/0 Next storm ?


In 2002 Gustav became a hurricane on 9/11 (the lastest the first hurricane of the season has formed since 1941)

I think Debby is on way to cane Status

[dwg71]

Information purposes only - not an opinion on past or future storms. Just a comparative to consider.

2004 as of August 24TH 5/3/2 Next storm Frances 8/25

2005 as of August 24TH 11/5/3 Next storm Lee formed on 8/31.

2006 as of August 24TH 4/0/0 Next storm ?


In 2002 Gustav became a hurricane on 9/11 (the lastest the first hurricane of the season has formed since 1941)

I think Debby is on way to cane Status

I thought that as well, but I'm betting against it now. I really want us to challenge 2002 and not have our first hurricane until 9/12 or later.

[Grease Monkey]

Time to update.

[stormtruth]

Yes, come on dwg71 we'd like some new data up here on the scoreboard.

[dwg71]

Yes, come on dwg71 we'd like some new data up here on the scoreboard.

I usually do it on Mondays at the office, I will get to it, 06 stands at 5-0-0 at this time.

[dwg71]

Information purposes only - not an opinion on past or future storms. Just a comparative to consider.

2004 as of August 27TH 6/4/3 Next storm GAston 8/28

2005 as of August 27TH 11/5/3 Next storm Lee formed on 8/31.

2006 as of August 27TH 5/0/0 Next storm ?


In 2002 Gustav became a hurricane on 9/11 (the lastest the first hurricane of the season has formed since 1941)

OK I HAD NOTHING BETTER TO DO...

[dwg71]

Information purposes only - not an opinion on past or future storms. Just a comparative to consider.

2004 as of August 28TH 7/5/3 Next storm Hermine 8/29

2005 as of August 28TH 11/5/3 Next storm Lee formed on 8/31.

2006 as of August 28TH 5/1/0 Next storm ?


I dont believe Ernesto will become a major...

[dwg71]

Information purposes only - not an opinion on past or future storms. Just a comparative to consider.

2004 as of August 29TH 8/5/3 Next storm Ivan 9/3

2005 as of August 29TH 11/5/3 Next storm Lee formed on 8/31.

2006 as of August 29TH 5/1/0 Next storm ?


2004's Sept was 4/4/3 - 2005's Sept was 5/5/2 Both were powerful months where every named storm became a hurricane and 56% of those became majors. WOW. This is the month that will determine 2006 IMO.

[dwg71]

Information purposes only - not an opinion on past or future storms. Just a comparative to consider.

2004 as of August 31ST 8/5/3 Next storm Ivan 9/3 remainder of season 7/4/3.

2005 as of August 31ST 12/5/3 Next storm Maria formed on 9/2 remainder of season 16/10/4.

2006 as of August 31ST 5/1/0 Next storm ?


2004's Sept was 4/4/3 - 2005's Sept was 5/5/2 Both were powerful months where every named storm became a hurricane and 56% of those became majors. This is the month that will determine 2006 IMO.