99L Invest, East Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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HurricaneHunter914
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#21 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Thu Jul 27, 2006 6:26 pm

Right now this is the first CV wave this year that has been an Invest so yeah it is probably a sign the CV year is coming.
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Grease Monkey
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#22 Postby Grease Monkey » Thu Jul 27, 2006 6:27 pm

I still think it doesn't mean anything.
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NYCHurr06

#23 Postby NYCHurr06 » Thu Jul 27, 2006 6:29 pm

calamity wrote:
...and I want to stand by my orignial statement. :D


:lol:
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#24 Postby HurricaneMaster_PR » Thu Jul 27, 2006 6:29 pm

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992006) ON 20060727 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060727 1800 060728 0600 060728 1800 060729 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 8.7N 29.4W 9.0N 33.8W 9.2N 37.9W 9.0N 41.6W
BAMM 8.7N 29.4W 9.0N 33.2W 9.2N 36.7W 9.2N 40.0W
A98E 8.7N 29.4W 8.8N 32.0W 8.9N 34.8W 9.1N 37.4W
LBAR 8.7N 29.4W 9.0N 33.0W 9.9N 36.8W 10.8N 40.3W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 26KTS 30KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 26KTS 30KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060729 1800 060730 1800 060731 1800 060801 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 8.9N 45.0W 9.2N 51.2W 10.0N 56.7W 10.6N 62.4W
BAMM 9.3N 43.2W 10.2N 49.1W 11.8N 53.8W 13.2N 57.2W
A98E 9.2N 40.0W 10.2N 44.6W 11.4N 49.3W 13.2N 54.3W
LBAR 11.7N 43.7W 13.7N 48.5W 16.4N 50.5W 22.9N 50.2W
SHIP 35KTS 42KTS 45KTS 51KTS
DSHP 35KTS 42KTS 45KTS 51KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.7N LONCUR = 29.4W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 8.6N LONM12 = 27.0W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 8.6N LONM24 = 24.4W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 15KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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#25 Postby windycity » Thu Jul 27, 2006 6:29 pm

Come on, Chris!!! You can do it! :P :P
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#26 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Thu Jul 27, 2006 6:30 pm

And it isn't ChrisT!
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#27 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Jul 27, 2006 6:31 pm

wow. Models have this up to 51 knots in 120 hours. Here comes Chris!
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#28 Postby westcoastfl » Thu Jul 27, 2006 6:32 pm

The red(cold) cloud tops seem to be increasing.. :eek:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html
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#29 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Jul 27, 2006 6:35 pm

Wouldn't be surprised to see TD 3 by tomorrow.
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#30 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Thu Jul 27, 2006 6:35 pm

Recon is going to be busy once this enters the Caribbean.
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#31 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Jul 27, 2006 6:35 pm

Does anyone have a model run image showing where they think this is going?
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#32 Postby Aquawind » Thu Jul 27, 2006 6:35 pm

westcoastfl wrote:The red(cold) cloud tops seem to be increasing.. :eek:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html


That does look pretty "good to go" with a little extra hot sauce on top..
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#33 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Jul 27, 2006 6:36 pm

westcoastfl wrote:The red(cold) cloud tops seem to be increasing.. :eek:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html


Yes, but most of that is actually to west of the the LLC. The LLC appears to be on eastern edge of the convection.
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Derek Ortt

#34 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Jul 27, 2006 6:37 pm

dnt use SHIPS since we do not have a depression
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#35 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 27, 2006 6:37 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:Does anyone have a model run image showing where they think this is going?


Image
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HurricaneHunter914
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#36 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Thu Jul 27, 2006 6:37 pm

The NHC might be issuing some STDS by tomorrow night or the day after tomorrow.
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Opal storm

#37 Postby Opal storm » Thu Jul 27, 2006 6:39 pm

LBAR shows a fish.Hopefully the other models will start to agree with that.
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#38 Postby bucman1 » Thu Jul 27, 2006 6:39 pm

Except for LBAR it pretty much keeps it on a west to northwest track through the period.
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#39 Postby Windtalker1 » Thu Jul 27, 2006 6:39 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:The NHC might be issuing some STDS by tomorrow night or the day after tomorrow.
I think by 11am tomorrow
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#40 Postby Grease Monkey » Thu Jul 27, 2006 6:39 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:The NHC might be issuing some STDS by tomorrow night or the day after tomorrow.

STDS?
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