INVEST 99L near Leewards,comments,sat pics,etc #4

[cycloneye]

18:00z BAM models graphic.They move it close to Puerto Rico North and South of the island.

[x-y-no]

Bouy 41100 - 19:00 GMT

pressure down to 1012.6mb

wind NE at 6 knots

[trendal]

The wind speed on buoy 41100 has dropped from 15kts to 6kts over the past hour, while pressure is still dropping.

Does this indicate an area of convection directly over the buoy?

I'm still new to all this

[Swimdude]

I'm thinking of all of the loops I've seen from last year -- and there's this certain pattern to how all of the tropical systems developed from waves. An explosion of convection, and the "wrapping around" look.

Based 100% on the loop over the past few hours, I believe that this is the day for 99L.

Watch the center of the system on the last few frames...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

But then again, Lord knows, I don't really know what I'm talking about...

---

One question, if anyone could answer this... Do we know what the model consensus is on this system in regards to direction? Will it head into the GOM?

[Swimdude]

Wow... Cycloneye answered my question BEFORE I asked it! Awesome!

[x-y-no]

The wind speed on buoy 41100 has dropped from 15kts to 6kts over the past hour, while pressure is still dropping.

Does this indicate an area of convection directly over the buoy?

I'm still new to all this

Not convection particularly. But to the extent that this thing has a center, that seems to be passing just ever so slightly south of this bouy.

[trendal]

Not convection particularly. But to the extent that this thing has a center, that seems to be passing just ever so slightly south of this bouy.

Ok that makes sense to me! Thanks eh

[PTrackerLA]

The models seem to indicate that this will be GOM system .

[NDG]

I wonder what the NHC will say at 5:30pm? It certainly looks better than at 11:30am.

NHC will probably say nothing much different than their 11:30, just because the structure has changed a little bit in the past couple hours, they will probably wait until the 10:30 TWO to see if it continues.

[trendal]

The models seem to indicate that this will be GOM system .

Better top off the tank on your car....

[Scorpion]

I think recon should get called back in.

[PTrackerLA]

The models seem to indicate that this will be GOM system .

Better top off the tank on your car....

NO JOKE!!! I've heard we'll be looking at $5/gallon area if there's a major in the gulf that shuts down production.

[x-y-no]

I think recon should get called back in.

Tomorrow is soon enough.

[Swimdude]

The models seem to indicate that this will be GOM system .

Better top off the tank on your car....

No kidding. I'll never forget the "Rita scare" last year, here in Houston. There was one gas station open, and the lines went for BLOCKS to get gas... And don't even get me started on the grocery stores.

Anyway! Back to the topic!

[trendal]

Off topic but...


Last year when Katrina started to explode in intensity after it crossed Florida, I knew that gas prices were about to shoot way up because I've been following the Peak Oil phenomena for several years now. I warned everyone I knew to go fill up their gas tank before the next morning...but only one friend of mine listened to me!

The next day gas prices shot up almost 30 cents per litre...and everyone I knew (except one VERY happy friend) was kicking themselves in the ass

[conestogo_flood]

I'm going to Playa Del Carmen/Cozumel Friday. Hmm...

[skysummit]

Well if it continues right down the middle across the Dominican and Cuba......FAWGET ABOUT IT! LOL

[White Cap]

The models seem to indicate that this will be GOM system .

Uh oh! I wonder how long it will take the groceries to wipe out on the bread and water shelves?

[dixiebreeze]

The models seem to indicate that this will be GOM system .

Do you have a link? Thanks.

[Thunder44]

The models seem to indicate that this will be GOM system .

Do you have a link? Thanks.

It's on the first post on this page.