13N/19W: new candidate for Cape Verde development?

[SouthFloridawx]

[MiamiensisWx]

Next TWO should be interesting eventually...

[mike815]

yes i agree eventually lol

[MiamiensisWx]

Any professional met comments/thoughts?

[abajan]

I doubt the next TWO will mention it but the TWO after the next TWO might!

[MiamiensisWx]

As the wave in front continues to move westward to west-northwest, the space it is creating between this second wave may also help the second wave develop in a more favorable environment.

Any more thoughts? Let's watch this second developing wave/low.

[SouthFloridawx]

I think we'll see a little bit more from the 205 from both areas.

[SouthFloridawx]

Daniel what is going on with this area today? This is the first I have been on yet.

[cycloneye]

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N17W 11N30W 10N41 10N58W. THERE
ARE TWO CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION. ONE IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 19W-24W LIKELY RELATED
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A NEW TROPICAL WAVE. THIS
WILL BE ANALYZED ON THE 1800 UTC MAP. THE DAKAR SOUNDING SHOWS A
WIND SHIFT FROM THE SW YESTERDAY TO THE SE TODAY. THE SECOND
CLUSTER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MENTIONED ABOVE. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO FOUND OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF SENEGAL IN W AFRICA AND FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN
56W-58W BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 60W.


Daniel,at tonight's 8 PM discussion they will introduce the new wave with a low pressure.

[calculatedrisk]

Meteosat 8 18:15 UTC showing 2nd area of interest:

[SouthFloridawx]

This should end up being 92L in a couple of days as 91L is moving faster to the west now.

[MiamiensisWx]

Right now, this second wave is under shear, just like INVEST 91L ahead of it. This is indicated by water vapor, visible, and infra-red imagery that indicate east-northeasterly shear and some mild westerly upper-level shear, partly resulting from both systems' west-northwest to west movement interacting with the easterly troughiness shear.

As shear decreases a bit (and it has decreased slightly ahead of this second wave), if it decreases enough, the developmental chances of this second wave/low may be higher. It also depends on the movement of the wave/low retrospect to the ULL that may form and increase shear over both waves. The timing, movement, and position of the wave in front may determine the developmental chances of this second wave/low, especially if the wave in front clears a narrow path beneath the ULL, allowing for some development of this second wave behind.

[Jim Cantore]

hmmm, NOGAPS picks up on it.

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-bin/nogapstc2.cgi?time=2006080600&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=060hr

so does the GFDL



Going to be intresting to watch no doubt.

[MiamiensisWx]

Floyd, that's INVEST 91L. This thread is one the wave behind 91L. The NOGAPS and GFS are picking up on 91L, NOT this wave.

[Jim Cantore]

Floyd, that's INVEST 91L. This thread is one the wave behind 91L. The NOGAPS and GFS are picking up on 91L, NOT this wave.

I see, this is the 92L candidate

[MiamiensisWx]

I see, this is the 92L candidate

Correct.

[Jim Cantore]

Nothing picking up on this yet, that might change over the next 24 hours.

one or two models are running on it, but not developing it.

[Hurrilurker]

Hmm...I swear I see some clouds trying to wrap CCW on the one marked as 91L.

[cycloneye]

NEW TROPICAL WAVE IS INTRODUCED ALONG 19W S OF 20N MOVING W AT
10 KT. WAVE PLACEMENT IS BASED ON UPPER AIR TIME SECTION
ANALYSIS... HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM...SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. A 1009 MB LOW IS ON THE WAVE AXIS AT 13N19W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-16N BETWEEN 16W-25W.

8 PM Discussion.As expected Daniel,wave has been introduced with a low pressure.

[mike815]

OH DARN IT WELL I GUESS SOMEONE GOT THIS COVERED IN THIS HERE POST