Noaa's August Hurricane Outlook=12-15 named storms

[wxboy222]

its live now

[Thunder44]

TWC just said they are forecasting 12 to 15 named storms. Just down 1 storm from the last outlook.

[cycloneye]

[Brent]

12-15 named, 7-9 hurricanes, 3-4 majors.

[cycloneye]

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/s2678.htm

Here is the text of the outlook.

[wxman57]

Forecast looks reasonable. A significant drop in the major hurricane predicitons from 4-6 to 3-4.

[cycloneye]

Expected conditions graphic

[miamicanes177]

Forecast looks reasonable. A significant drop in the major hurricane predicitons from 4-6 to 3-4.

If the forecast of 12-15/7-9/3-4 comes true, this will be a horribly bad season.

[cycloneye]

I also agree with their outkook,seeing what is going on this year.The numbers look ok to me.

[dwg71]

Forecast looks reasonable. A significant drop in the major hurricane predicitons from 4-6 to 3-4.

If the forecast of 12-15/7-9/3-4 comes true, this will be a horribly bad season.

If its the low end 12/7/3 - thats a fairly normal season. If all 3 majors are fish, we wont consider this a "horribly bad season", we will be considering ourselves lucky. If the season ends 4/1/1 and that one is a katrina type occurance it will be "horribly bad season" - its all relative.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Very true look at years like 1992 or 1991; if you were in South Florida with Andrew, or New England and the Maritimes with Bob, then it was a bad season, anywhere else it was a good season.

[Jim Cantore]

I still wouldn't be shocked if this season turned out 17 storms.

[cycloneye]

Will,as I said before,the NOAA August outlook is posted at your thread for you to see it.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/o ... cane.shtml

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Dang I forgot about the "Halloween Storm" in 1991, now that was a real humdinger for the Western Atlantic; one of the worse offshore storms of any type in recorded history.

[jlauderdal]

The NOAA seasonal forecast team basically studied under Dr. Gray. They look at the same parameters as Dr. Gray. Therefore, the only conclusion they can reach is that they have overestimated the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes in there early-season prediction. They'll drop the projected numbers by about 2. Still, an above "normal" season is likely.

But it only takes one hurricane to make for a very bad season. The first storm of 1992 didn't form until mid August (Andrew). Only 7 storms formed that year, but no one could argue that the season wasn't significant.

there can be one storm and if it hits you there might as well have been 30. i still dont understand the major press these forecasts from gray, noaa, etc recieve. What is the difference if they say 5 or 30? It doesn't change anyones preperation or lack of because nobody knows where they are hitting. I would prefer to see more money poured into NHC for actual track and intensity forecasting of exisiting systems and less on trying to figure out how many storms will ocur in a given season.

I respectfully disagree, these forecasts are important. They add the overall level of preparedness. Yes, the tracking and forecasting of individual storms is vital, but the larger forecasts set the tone for the season.

ok, so if they say there will be 20 storms then people will really get prepared and if they say 10 then people won't be prepared..is that you are saying?

[mempho]

75% chance of an above-normal season still. Only a 5% chance of a below normal season. BTW, the upper end of 15 named storms and 4 majors could make for a very bad season...if three or four majors hit the U.S., we will have had a terrible season.

[mempho]

What's funny is they lowered it by one storm....that's all. So much for the "quiet season" we're having.

[theworld]

Hi,

I'm doing some research on La Nina/El Nino, and have been all over the current NOAA data, reading and viewing animations, concluding we are in an ENSO Neutral pattern in the Trop Pacific, as per their reports, and a reference noted in today's NOAA revised Atlantic Hurricane season #'s.

Can some please clarify what ENSO Neutral implies/means.

Is the Pacific somewhere in between El Nino & La Nina
or is La Nina still active
or is there just a mild El Nino in the NorthWest Pacific?

thanks

[mempho]

ENSO neutral means the Pacific is "normal" and there is no El Nino or La Nina.

[theworld]

ENSO neutral means the Pacific is "normal" and there is no El Nino or La Nina.

Thanks Mempho.... what confuses me though, is that the temperatures in the NorthWest Pacific (SE Asia) are showing signs of warming.