Invest 97L E Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

wxmann_91 · #21 Postby **wxmann_91** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 11:43 am

The SAL is too strong attm. But, once the SAL leaves, this could crank up quickly. I think this might end up being a Caribbean threat.

#22 Postby **Vortex** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 11:50 am

I think our wave neearing 40w has some potential in a day or two. Either way most guidance brings this system towards the west and nearing the islands in 3-4 days. Something to watch closely...

HurricaneMaster_PR · #23 Postby **HurricaneMaster_PR** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 1:11 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON AUG 21 2006

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E ATLC HAS BEEN ADJUSTED AHEAD ALONG 41W S
OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. A 1012 MB LOW IS PLACED ON THE
WAVE NEAR 10N. THIS SFC LOW IS VERY BROAD...BUT SFC OBS AND A
09Z QUIKSCAT PASS HAS HELPED LOCATE THE LOW CENTER. THE WAVE
ITSELF IS ALSO BROAD...BUT IS HIGH AMPLITUDE WITH CYCLONIC
TURNING COVERING A LARGE AREA ABOUT THE AXIS. FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME DUE TO ITS VERY
BROAD NATURE AND THE LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST THAT SURROUNDS
THE NRN EXTENSION OF THE WAVE

#24 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 3:29 pm

Some of the global models are starting to pick up on this area.

GFS
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 12/93.html

Nogaps
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ngp/fcst/index.html

Ukmet..
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm ... 12/44.html

Dispite the saharan dust.... it's probably good to continue to monitor this area for future development.

http://tinyurl.com/n2f83

#25 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 3:31 pm

Also the eastern Carribean is looking better and better today as far as shear goes.

#26 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 3:46 pm

The central atlantic is looking more vibrant with the Wet Phase of MJO in the area.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/rb-l.jpg

*edited by staff to make the image clickable - was so large, you had to scroll to read each line on the page

'CaneFreak · #27 Postby **'CaneFreak** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 6:08 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/xyrfpr.gif

LOOKY LOOKY...the central atlantic wave has now been given a 6 to 8 % chance of formation!!!! WOW!!! :eek:

That's the highest probability I have seen all year thus far!!!

*edited by staff to make the image clickable - was so large, you had to scroll to read each line on the page

caneman · #28 Postby **caneman** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 6:13 pm

Looking like it wants to become the next invest. Perhaps by AM tomorrow.

caribepr · #29 Postby **caribepr** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 6:15 pm

C A R I B B E A N

Every other spelling error (including my own) can pass....but it's Caribbean, not Carribean (no matter HOW you say it!) 8-)

Don't tell any weather systems though, they can ALL go to the Carribean (which I believe is located about 800 due east of Bermuda) and that will be fine with me.

#30 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:16 pm

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E ATLC IS ALONG 43W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR
20 KT. A 1011 MB LOW IS PLACED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N. THIS
SFC LOW IS VERY BROAD...BUT SFC OBS AND A QUIKSCAT PASS HAS
HELPED LOCATE THE LOW CENTER. THE WAVE ITSELF IS ALSO
BROAD...BUT IS HIGH AMPLITUDE WITH CYCLONIC TURNING COVERING A
LARGE AREA ABOUT THE AXIS. AGAIN SAHARAN DUST SURROUNDS THE NRN
EXTENSION OF THE WAVE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 38W-40W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 43W-46W.

From 8 PM Discussion.

HurricaneMaster_PR · #31 Postby **HurricaneMaster_PR** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:19 pm

Luis, -1mb than in the 2pm discussion!

#32 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:22 pm

HurricaneMaster_PR wrote:Luis, -1mb lower than in the 2pm discussion!

Yes,definitly we have to watch this wave closely here in Puerto Rico.

#33 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:26 pm

'CaneFreak wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/xyrfpr.gif

LOOKY LOOKY...the central atlantic wave has now been given a 6 to 8 % chance of formation!!!! WOW!!! That's the highest probability I have seen all year thus far!!!

*edited by staff to make the image clickable - was so large, you had to scroll to read each line on the page

That's weird cause on my computer I didn't have to scroll... perhaps it's my resolution. Sorry about that.

#34 Postby **Rieyeuxs** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:33 pm

I wonder if the increase in development is due to TD4 starting to back-block the SAL like Derek indicated before. The back wave sacrifices to the one more ahead.

southerngale · #35 Postby **southerngale** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:43 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:
'CaneFreak wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/xyrfpr.gif

LOOKY LOOKY...the central atlantic wave has now been given a 6 to 8 % chance of formation!!!! WOW!!! That's the highest probability I have seen all year thus far!!!

*edited by staff to make the image clickable - was so large, you had to scroll to read each line on the page

That's weird cause on my computer I didn't have to scroll... perhaps it's my resolution. Sorry about that.

I use 1024 x 768, which is recommended for this site, and I often have to scroll when people post large images. A link or thumbnail is always a better choice anyway, and the user has the option of clicking on it or not.

#36 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 9:16 pm

#37 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 9:18 pm

Looking pretty decent Luis!

boca · #38 Postby **boca** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 9:22 pm

Luis is that visible at night?

temujin · #39 Postby **temujin** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 9:24 pm

It should be visible at night, because the last time the shuttle went up, they installed a real big flash on the satellite.

#40 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 9:26 pm

boca wrote:Luis is that visible at night?

Yes,visible image at night.

Invest 97L E Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

I tend to agree

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