Invest 97L Observation, Interpretation & Analysis (#2)

DESTRUCTION5 · #21 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 3:37 pm

jhamps10 wrote:it could, but I don't think I have ever seen one do that though, has anyone else?

Tons of times...Think the went right to Cane before out in the East Atalntic

dwg71 · #22 Postby **dwg71** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 3:37 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
jhamps10 wrote:Yeah 97L is starting to become T.D. #5. I expect that to happen by the 11PM advisory.

Could it be immediately TS Ernesto?

Not likely, there is not a closed LLC so it is not a depression...

jhamps10 · #23 Postby **jhamps10** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 3:37 pm

that's right I forgot that Isabel did that.

frederic79 · #24 Postby **frederic79** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 3:39 pm

Buoy 41101 now down to 1011.8 mb and still falling.

jhamps10 · #25 Postby **jhamps10** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 3:40 pm

yeah but in the later frames it looks like that it is trying to form a closed Circulation? on the Visable shot.

WmE · #26 Postby **WmE** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 3:41 pm

jhamps10 wrote:yeah but in the later frames it looks like that it is trying to form a closed Circulation? on the Visable shot.

This could also be an MLC.

#27 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 3:42 pm

I can't find any evidence of an LLC, but the MLC is much stronger this afternoon. If I was to approximate a "center", I'd say 10.3N/55.4W. North of that spot, all clouds seem to be moving westward. I'd give it a 40-50% shot at becoming TD 5 within 24 hours. There is a recon set for tomorrow, so I think the NHC may wait for that before trying to classify such a system using IR imagery tonight. There might be a quikSCAT image in the next few hours. Last nights shows nothing.

jhamps10 · #28 Postby **jhamps10** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 3:42 pm

yeah, that's why I didn't mention Closed LLC, Cause I can't quite tell if it is a LLC or an MLC.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #29 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 3:44 pm

Here is some facts on TS Ernesto

Hers is Ernesto in 2000....Weak tropical storm...

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif\

The Ernesto of 1994,1988 where both tropical storms and fish.

The Ernesto of 1982 was the strongest at 60 knots.

So there was never a Ernesto as a hurricane.

#30 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 3:44 pm

Calamity,I forgot to say that part of the title will be edited many times to reflect the latest about models,and the TWO'S.

caribepr · #31 Postby **caribepr** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 3:44 pm

bvichick

I'm not having any problems but hey, YOU live in the BVI's and as bad as the VI's and PR can be, you have the worst...haven't seen another post from you (tried to answer in the last thread but it was closed already) so hope you get it sorted out. C & W...sheesh.
I'm sticking with Luis' words...a southerly west bound on this, but not blinking yet...

#32 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 3:44 pm

Question: in order for a depression to form, does the MLC have to work its way down to the surface, or does a separate LLC have to form?

#33 Postby **CrazyC83** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 3:45 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Here is some facts on TS Ernesto

Hers is Ernesto in 2000....Weak tropical storm...

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif\

The Ernesto of 1994,1988 where both tropical storms and fish.

The Ernesto of 1982 was the strongest at 60 knots.

So there was never a Ernesto as a hurricane.

That could be broken in 2006...and there may not be an Ernesto in 2012.

dwg71 · #34 Postby **dwg71** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 3:45 pm

LAwxrgal wrote:Question: in order for a depression to form, does the MLC have to work its way down to the surface, or does a separate LLC have to form?

I'm not sure, but I think both scenerios would work...

#35 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 3:46 pm

dwg71 wrote:
LAwxrgal wrote:Question: in order for a depression to form, does the MLC have to work its way down to the surface, or does a separate LLC have to form?

I'm not sure, but I think both scenerios would work...

Ok thanks.

Just checking.

ConvergenceZone · #36 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 3:47 pm

since the thread cap is 25 pages now, does that mean no more 200 page threads like last year?? that was kinda fun!

#37 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 3:48 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:since the thread cap is 25 pages now, does that mean no more 200 page threads like last year?? that was kinda fun!

Nope,no more long pages threads like Katrina or Wilma ones last year with over 200 pages.

ConvergenceZone · #38 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 3:51 pm

cycloneye wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:since the thread cap is 25 pages now, does that mean no more 200 page threads like last year?? that was kinda fun!

Nope,no more long pages threads like Katrina or Wilma ones last year with over 200 pages.

hehe, that's cool, but do you know how quickly you will have 25 pages once a threatening storm gets rolling??

jhamps10 · #39 Postby **jhamps10** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 3:53 pm

umm I think with chris we had like 2 or 3 hours per thread

Thunder44 · #40 Postby **Thunder44** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 3:53 pm

This wave is looks like it's becoming slowly better organized this afternoon. Convection has increased but still appears little disorganized around the MLC and there doesn't appear to be a LLC now. It may become a TD before it reaches Lesser Antillies tomorrow.

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