Tropical Depression#5,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #5

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Just to Tell people that there right this is definitly not 2006or 2004 or any other year such as all the other years before 2006 because there has never been a hurricane season that has been the same so quit sayin it not 2005 anymore. No year can realisticly be compared to another.

It is 2006!!

[NONAME]

yea i fixed it i meant 2005

[sevenleft]

Just to Tell people that there right this is definitly not 2005or 2004 or any other year such as all the other years before 2006 because there has never been a hurricane season that has been the same so quit sayin it not 2005 anymore. No year can realisticly be compared to another.

What?

[SouthFloridawx]

Just to Tell people that there right this is definitly not 2005or 2004 or any other year such as all the other years before 2006 because there has never been a hurricane season that has been the same so quit sayin it not 2005 anymore. No year can realisticly be compared to another.

What?

I understood what he was saying.

[HouTXmetro]

Can we please get back on topic? When will th enext model runs come out?

[Brent]

Can we please get back on topic? When will th enext model runs come out?

06z=2am ET.

[sevenleft]

Just to Tell people that there right this is definitly not 2005or 2004 or any other year such as all the other years before 2006 because there has never been a hurricane season that has been the same so quit sayin it not 2005 anymore. No year can realisticly be compared to another.

What?

I understood what he was saying.

They didn't really say anything. Just kinda threw some words together in an incoherent "statement".....

I'm not really sure what they were trying to say, but saying "This isn't 2005" IS legitimate when discussing the chances of an extreme hurricane. Conditions, on the whole, are less favorable this season than last.

[Rainband]

No but the mets on here are saying look West young man. Things will change of course but that is the majority opinion of the pro's here right now.

Well, I have been a bit too busy with our general thunderstorms and of course the tropics to post here. But, after reading a few posts from the last few hours, I must say that even in most cases this would be WAY to early to even estimate a guess for landfall. In this particular storm scenario, there are, unfortunately several seemingly plausible scenarios regarding the synoptic pattern across the W. Atlantic, W. Caribbean, and GOM. With that said, IMO, it is extremely irresponsible to make a landfall "forecast" or even guess if you are someone who has a concrete background in meteorology. Folks, we are talking about something that would be 7 days away if Florida or even 9 or 10 days away if Texas. Also, keep in mind that in its early stages we will likely see center re-locations and reformations, etc. Thus leading to problems with model initialization.

Making non-professional guesses is fun, I suppose, but I am admittedly surprised with the inferred degree of certainty from some of the other pros here.

Forgive my rant, now back to my other duties here at work.

Nice Post Josh

[Mac]

Just to Tell people that there right this is definitly not 2005or 2004 or any other year such as all the other years before 2006 because there has never been a hurricane season that has been the same so quit sayin it not 2005 anymore. No year can realisticly be compared to another.

What?

I understood what he was saying.

They didn't really say anything. Just kinda threw some words together in an incoherent "statement".....

I'm not really sure what they were trying to say, but saying "This isn't 2005" IS legitimate when discussing the chances of an extreme hurricane. Conditions, on the whole, are less favorable this season than last.

The only problem is, we're not looking at "conditions as a whole." We're looking at specific conditions for a specific storm. I personally believe this will end up being a major hurricane. I don't know that it will make cat 5, but that's not beyond possibility. It has lots of warm water to work with and other factors could stack up in its favor.

[Rainband]

According to the NHC speed it would be 5 days from FL and 7-8 from Texas.

Thought you were saying goodnight.

[rockyman]

I agree, Josh, but I did want to point out that the Florida Keys are now in the 5 day cone

[StormWarning1]

Satellite presentation looks kinda ragged. If this were not already a depression I doubt it would be called one or upgraded from a wave. Going to have to slow down fairly quickly or it has a bad date with shear.

[Rainband]

Just for the record. The met aka Linkerweather is one of the most real to life there is. He won't tell you what you want to hear. He will tell you like it is. Thats what I like about Bay News9 No fluff just the facts.

[psyclone]

I love the folks at baynews 9 and must say Josh rocks! it is way too soon to guess this storms ultimate track although i feel secure here in pinellas county at this point.

[Wx_Warrior]

Let the media frenzy begin!

We are almost at the Katrina anniversary and there are already news people in NO talking about this!

[Rainband]

Let the media frenzy begin!

We are almost at the Katrina anniversary and there are already news people in NO talking about this!

Like I said thats why I like Bay news 9. No frenzy just Facts.

[linkerweather]

I agree, Josh, but I did want to point out that the Florida Keys are now in the 5 day cone

Rocky,
How right you are. I didn't mean to leave out the keys, I was being egocentric and referring to my part of Florida Which I guess at current speed would be day 6 and not 7. TExas day 8 or so. I was trying to make a point not necessarily related to specifics of a forecast.

Rainband and Psychlone thanks for the kind words about BN9.

[Comanche]

There's a weakness here thats gonna take it where I live in Texas!! YEE-HAW!!!, no, Wait. Theres a potential for it to come to where I live in Florida, I heard it on the local news tonight. I am out buying batteries as we speak!! Oh Yeah? I see a development in the pattern that will bring it to where I live in Spain!! My local met is always right and we are already boarding up and heading out.

Kids in a candy store, all wanting the same thing......

Thank you sir, may I have another? Thank you sir, may I have another? Thank you sir, may I have another?

[SouthFloridawx]

Ok someone has to do this.

This situation Bears watching and I don't mean watching the Chicago Bears either.

[Galvestongirl]

There's a weakness here thats gonna take it where I live in Texas!! YEE-HAW!!!, no, Wait. Theres a potential for it to come to where I live in Florida, I heard it on the local news tonight. I am out buying batteries as we speak!! Oh Yeah? I see a development in the pattern that will bring it to where I live in Spain!! My local met is always right and we are already boarding up and heading out.

Kids in a candy store, all wanting the same thing......

Thank you sir, may I have another? Thank you sir, may I have another? Thank you sir, may I have another?

o.k....its time to back away from the puter before it sends you into insanity...................thank goodness for xanax...lol