TS Ernesto Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread 6

[KatDaddy]

Outflow boundaries really pushing out to the NW and N. Here comes Mr. Shear

[Stormcenter]

As I mentioned yesterday, TD5/Ernesto is slowing down.
The ULL should lift out and the high should build in over the WC.
We could see a major cane in three days!!
Question for the Mets, is it possible this storm becomes stationery
in the WC with weak steering currents? If so, all bets are off with
the future track.

The key word in your observations is "should" and alot I things should happen but actually end up not happening. I think we need to wait and see before we start predicting a major hurricane anywhere.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The recon needs to check out 65.5 big time the MLC is there....In inflow is very strong into that area from the south. Meaning theres a good chance theres a LLC.

[Aquawind]

what difference does it really make whether this gets named now or 6 hours from now?

MW

Good Point Mike.. Recon was scheduled.. granted not as the sun came up like everyone wanted but they will clarify the situation soon enough..within hours..

[Sanibel]

No doubt Ernesto right now. Especially with the big blow-up last night under TS Dvorak.

[SWFLA_CANE]

what difference does it really make whether this gets named now or 6 hours from now?

MW

Good Point Mike.. Recon was scheduled.. granted not as the sun came up like everyone wanted but they will clarify the situation soon enough..within hours..

Sorry if this was posted before but what time is the flight taking off?

[Derek Ortt]

outflow bondaries are indicative of dry air, not shear

[Javlin]

Outflow boundaries really pushing out to the NW and N. Here comes Mr. Shear

I think you are right to some degree on this and it's the UL to the N that providing that "just a little xtra boost".

[jhamps10]

Yeah, I believe that recon is supposed to leave here in the next 20 minutes or so, I for one would believe that the depression is in a "napping" mode right now, just waiting for the next blow up in the convection. Recon will most certainly mind TS winds, maybe as high as 40 or 45 Kt's but that we really don't know, the convection looks like it has blossomed overnight, and that the shear that it will pass over is not too strong, now I am not saying that we will have a cat 3 in the gulf by this time on monday, but I do not believe looking at the current conditions that the shear will kill this one.

[Blown Away]

Question??
It appears TD5 has slowed considerably, I'd say 10-12mph. What effect will that have on the future track? Is my observation accurate, or do I need a break from the loops?

[jhamps10]

well in the advisory at 5AM they had it at 18 or 19, and now it's down to 15 per 11AM advisory, so yeah it has slowed down. The effect on the track, too hard to say.

[canegrl04]

TD 5 has slowed to 15mph,per CNN

[gatorcane]

if it slows down I think the ridge is not a strong as the models think.....

[fci]

What makes you come up to that conclusion.

Besides...the question they answered is...what difference does it really make whether this gets named now or 6 hours from now?

MW[/quote]

Mike:
I am so with you on this!!!
People get so wrapped up on when titles are given.
Remember the tither some people got into when the Invest off of North Florida/Georgia (I forget what Invest #it was) never was named TD #4?.
What a waste of time that was!!!!

When the NHC deems it appropriate, they will upgrade TD #5 to Ernesto and will upgrade Invests to TD's!!!!

And you know what...... it will not change one thing about the storms. They will go where they choose to go and be as strong as Mother Nature lets them be. Whether they are called a TD or a named storm now or 6 or 12 or 24 hours from now!!

(fci climbs down from his soap "rant" box.......)

[Thunder44]

Question??
It appears TD5 has slowed considerably, I'd say 10-12mph. What effect will that have on the future track? Is my observation accurate, or do I need a break from the loops?

I believe it's in the process of reorganizing further east from it's position this morning.

[Windsurfer_NYC]

Sorry if this was posted before but what time is the flight taking off?

It's due to take off at 16Z (12 Noon EDT) and get to the storm an hour or two later. Obs will be posted in the recon report threat....

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD_last.shtml?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Even with the outflow boundry heading out of the northwest side...The MLC possibly LLC I think is still intect. Lets see how strong that Anticyclone protects its cyclone. I will try to put out my wind thinking for this after recon.

[Aquawind]

jhamps10 yep.. Recon should be leaving very soon.. 1600Z9 or 12pm ET.. Arrives at the system before 2pm ET or 1800Z.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD_last.shtml?

[NESDIS Met]

We're now beginning to see the LLC tucking itself nicely under the CDO, forward propogation has slowed considerably in the last three hours, and banding is evident in the eastern semicircle...more importantly, real-time analysis shows lessening shear 10 degrees west of the system...our thoughts here are that we'll shortly (within 48 hours) have a dangerous storm moving w-nw just south of the Greater Antilles. Does it thread the needle through the Yucatan Channel? Too early to say decisively, but we're moving in that direction, especially the FSU Superensemble.

[skysummit]

NESDIS....are you a pro met? If so, where? By the way....welcome.