Tropical Storm Ernesto #7 Sat pics, models, analysis thread

johngaltfla · #21 Postby **johngaltfla** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 3:54 pm

Gang, I'm not going to even touch the level of expertise the pros here have, but when the Disco says they are concerned about potential intensity in the GOM, I perk up and pay attention. Unless something weird happens like a complete stall for one or two days, I would say Western Florida is not as threatened as other regions. Let's see where we are on Sunday and analyze what the pros and recon say and get excited then.

In the mean time, I would top my tanks off because the oil markets will go nuclear on Monday if this is a Hurricane heading towards the already damaged Gulf oil fields on Sunday night.

#22 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 3:55 pm

gatorcane wrote:edging north each new model package...

Not really...the 12z guidance had all edged south from the 06Z...

I think you are being a little selective in your memory. Its not edging north each package...its being inconsistant each package.

Matter of fact...the 18z runs look a lot like the 06z runs.

There is a model war right now...and NOBODY knows which one is right...not even the NHC...which is why they stall Ernie out over the SEGOM.

miamicanes177 · #23 Postby **miamicanes177** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 3:56 pm

They have to stall it out because they can not point at a spot for landfall right now. People would panic.

cctxhurricanewatcher · #24 Postby **cctxhurricanewatcher** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 3:57 pm

Portastorm wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:
Noles2006 wrote:So... basically.. to recap the 5:00 discussion... the NHC is very confused as to where it's going and how strong it'll be when it gets there... so... basically, they're almost as in the dark as we are.

Yes...which is why they stall it in teh SEGOM. IN response to the model guidance is double-speak for "even though the models all take it away from our 5 day point in 120 hours...we don't know where that is...so we'll stall it."

IT is understandable. They are getting grilled by FEMA and the state EOCs to make a call so assets can be pre-deployed.

And I am one of those ass-ets now wondering if my Labor Day weekend is going to be spent at the Texas state EOC.

This is one Labor day weekend that all state employees need to enjoy, off. As a taxpayer in our great state I'll not complain about your taxpayer paid holiday if you don't have to work that weekend.

However the next holiday (Columbus Day) I'll go back to complaining about it. :lol:

#25 Postby **BreinLa** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 3:57 pm

I hate the name ERnesto thanks AFM I will call this one Ernie

Extremeweatherguy · #26 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 3:57 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
gatorcane wrote:edging north each new model package...

Not really...the 12z guidance had all edged south from the 06Z...

I think you are being a little selective in your memory. Its not edging north each package...its being inconsistant each package.

Matter of fact...the 18z runs look a lot like the 06z runs.

There is a model war right now...and NOBODY knows which one is right...not even the NHC...which is why they stall Ernie out over the SEGOM.

I agree AFM, not much change. In fact, the BAMS look a lot further south than they were yesterday at this time.

#27 Postby **gboudx** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 3:58 pm

Air Force Met wrote:There is a model war right now...and NOBODY knows which one is right...not even the NHC...which is why they stall Ernie out over the SEGOM.

With any luck, this comment will prevent pages upon pages of "it's going here, no it's going here". It would be nice to have a filter that only displayed posts from the pro-mets.

Extremeweatherguy · #28 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 3:59 pm

gboudx wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:There is a model war right now...and NOBODY knows which one is right...not even the NHC...which is why they stall Ernie out over the SEGOM.

With any luck, this comment will prevent pages upon pages of "it's going here, no it's going here".

well at this point I think we can at least rule a few places as being unlikley targets.

These areas inlude:

-The FL Peninsula.
-Extreme southern Mexico.
-The East coast.

ConvergenceZone · #29 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 4:00 pm

skysummit wrote:Wow...with all the concern we had today for Ernesto to possibly dissipate, the NHC mentions that he could possibly be stronger over the gulf than currently forecasted.

That's freakin' amazing. Don't you just love how the tropics work?

I just read the 5:00 discussion... That's the same exact discussion from earlier though, isn't it?? That's why I was saying earlier that the NHC wasn't forecasting the shear that people on here were, but that discussion looks word for word like the same discussion made at 11:00 am this morning. Brent, are you sure that's the 5:00 pm discussion? or did the NHC not bother in writing a brand new one?

Dusty

johngaltfla · #30 Postby **johngaltfla** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 4:00 pm

gboudx wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:There is a model war right now...and NOBODY knows which one is right...not even the NHC...which is why they stall Ernie out over the SEGOM.

With any luck, this comment will prevent pages upon pages of "it's going here, no it's going here". It would be nice to have a filter that only displayed posts from the pro-mets.

We can only pray. And if everyone's memory will return to them, the storm which shouldn't have done what it did, Katrina, was supposed to stall and die out also. So let the pros and models get more data before claiming "hit me" this season. Let's take it one day, one batch of data at a time.

#31 Postby **KFDM Meteorologist** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 4:00 pm

No one will know until Monday for sure..

#32 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 4:00 pm

The NHC must be taking the average from the tropical models and the GFDL and NGPI. They must've took the difference and split it right down the middle since there is so much discrepency of what could happen next week.

jenmrk · #33 Postby **jenmrk** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 4:01 pm

Ernest/Ernesto, meaning "battle to the death "
according to our friend "Google"

Extremeweatherguy · #34 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 4:02 pm

Since I have not heard an opinion on this since yesterday..

Pro Mets...where do you currently think this will go? Have the forecasted steering currents changed since yesterday or is this still a MX, TX, LA threat down the road?

Trugunzn · #35 Postby **Trugunzn** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 4:02 pm

Also whats our record for most threads by a tropical cyclone?

Wx_Warrior · #36 Postby **Wx_Warrior** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 4:02 pm

New Europen has South Texas again...to each is own

#37 Postby **linkerweather** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 4:03 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
gatorcane wrote:edging north each new model package...

There is a model war right now...and NOBODY knows which one is right...not even the NHC...which is why they stall Ernie out over the SEGOM.

AFM,
Excellent point....interesting that the NHC day 5 point isn;t even a forecast, it is just esentially an arbitrary location. This one will be a challenge to say the least.

Rainband · #38 Postby **Rainband** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 4:04 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:Since I have not heard an opinion on this since yesterday..

Pro Mets...where do you currently think this will go? Have the forecasted steering currents changed since yesterday or is this still a MX, TX, LA threat down the road?

Won't know anything for a couple of days.

#39 Postby **Starburst** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 4:07 pm

This is a store owners dream, can you imagine all the purchases that will be made over the weekend into early week. All I can say is if you have not prepared do so as the media hype has already began.

Damar91 · #40 Postby **Damar91** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 4:08 pm

I know what will be said now, but too bad, I have to say it. That "cone of death" keeps creeping more towards the Fl peninsula every update.

Tropical Storm Ernesto #7 Sat pics, models, analysis thread

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