TS Ernesto #8 Sat pics, models, analysis thread

#21 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 9:28 pm

PTPatrick wrote:where can we see HPC tracks?

I'm sure there is a public place...but I get them internally so I am not sure...

Here are their points

72 hrs...21.5/83.7
96 hrs...23.7/87.2
120hrs..26.3/91.3

bayoubebe · #22 Postby **bayoubebe** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 9:28 pm

It is very eerie to think that we MAY have to be watching another hurricane around Aug. 29.

I repeat.........MAY. But, still.

I bet Nagin has everyone evacuate the moment Ernesto enters the gulf, regardless of where its path/track may be.

PTPatrick · #23 Postby **PTPatrick** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 9:29 pm

I wouldnt call it "Seriously Unlikely"...Despite the fact that the high should build back over the east GOM within the next few days...this thing could be just getting to the Southern Gulf at that point. There has been some talk of a front dropping across the Texas coast in the wednesday to thursday time frame, despite the man models showing a beeline towards TX. These things can and DO turn on a dime. The stearing currents 5-6 days are anybody's best guess at this point. Most pros have even said that the high position is very uncertain. So with the real possiblity of a front or trough coming, I dont think a hit east of Western LA "SERIOUSLY UNLIKELY"

LeeJet · #24 Postby **LeeJet** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 9:29 pm

Bailey1777 wrote:Beam,
IMO It's not strengthening but it is definately holding it's own. Unless shear increases signifigantly I see Ernie holding his own.

Not increasing? Can you not see the blow up of cloud tops?

Typhoon · #25 Postby **Typhoon** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 9:29 pm

Get back on topic, people!

Even though it's hard to tell whether Ernesto is really getting better organized, the area of deep convection continues to expand. Also, Ernesto continues to follow the NHC track very well. Many people were saying that there seems to be a more northward component to Ernesto's motion, but I disagree. I think the expanding convection created an illusion. It seems that Ernesto will pass comfortably to the south of Haiti, although it has a good chance of coming across the tip of Cuba.

#26 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 9:30 pm

honestly, if it changes course to the east into florida, ill be in NY.

#27 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 9:31 pm

Typhoon wrote:Get back on topic, people!

Even though it's hard to tell whether Ernesto is really getting better organized, the area of deep convection continues to expand. Also, Ernesto continues to follow the NHC track very well. Many people were saying that there seems to be a more northward component to Ernesto's motion, but I disagree. I think the expanding convection created an illusion. It seems that Ernesto will pass comfortably to the south of Haiti, although it has a good chance of coming across the tip of Cuba.

Exactly...it is right on track moving at 285 at 14 knots....

Stratosphere747 · #28 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 9:32 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
PTPatrick wrote:where can we see HPC tracks?

I'm sure there is a public place...but I get them internally so I am not sure...

Here are their points

72 hrs...21.5/83.7
96 hrs...23.7/87.2
120hrs..26.3/91.3

Do they project a heading AFM, or just a point?

Extremeweatherguy · #29 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 9:32 pm

wow...

I feel embarassed for Fox 26 in Houston. The met just showed a run of the GFDL taking it over Hispaniola and into the Atlantic. Can you say OLD! lol.

PTPatrick · #30 Postby **PTPatrick** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 9:33 pm

PROS: What do you make of this Wednesday/Thursday troug/front coming into Texas and Louisiana...

Accuweather hints that if the storm moves fast enough it could beat the trough to Texas and or western LA...but that if the storm slows more it could easily turn due north or possibly NNE...

bayoubebe · #31 Postby **bayoubebe** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 9:34 pm

PTPatrick wrote:I wouldnt call it "Seriously Unlikely"...Despite the fact that the high should build back over the east GOM within the next few days...this thing could be just getting to the Southern Gulf at that point. There has been some talk of a front dropping across the Texas coast in the wednesday to thursday time frame, despite the man models showing a beeline towards TX. These things can and DO turn on a dime. The stearing currents 5-6 days are anybody's best guess at this point. Most pros have even said that the high position is very uncertain. So with the real possiblity of a front or trough coming, I dont think a hit east of Western LA "SERIOUSLY UNLIKELY"

I totally agree. With hurricanes and nature, just about ANYTHING is possibile.

We have no control over what the weather will do or not do.

With it still SEVERAL days away with a POSSIBILE US Landfall, IMO, everything is a guess now. Mind you, some guesses are more educated than others. LOL

I wonder how many times the track will change between now and Landfall with each given model?

Derek Ortt · #32 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 9:35 pm

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html

this is still a badly sheared system that is not intensifying at all. Just plodding along as expected

#33 Postby **Bailey1777** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 9:35 pm

Lee that blowup is life substaining not strength. Chime in if you have an opinion.

#34 Postby **HollynLA** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 9:35 pm

i

t would be an astromical knockout punch for the cities of New Orleans, Biloxi, Gulfport, Waveland, Pascagoula, and the surrounding areas. But that's seriously unlikely.

Seriously Unlikely?? How do you figure that? Are you not looking at the same forecasted tracks and models as everyone else? Everywhere from TX to FL can be threatened by Ernesto, and being that LA is right smack in the middle puts at more risk than "seriously unlikely". Besides, where are you from, your profile doesn't say. I'm going to go out on a limb and guess Texas though.

El Nino · #35 Postby **El Nino** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 9:36 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc06/ATL/05L.ERNESTO/tc_ssmis/composite/full/Latest.html

this is still a badly sheared system that is not intensifying at all. Just plodding along as expected

40 kts according to this link.

bayoubebe · #36 Postby **bayoubebe** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 9:38 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc06/ATL/05L.ERNESTO/tc_ssmis/composite/full/Latest.html

this is still a badly sheared system that is not intensifying at all. Just plodding along as expected

Are you saying that it is not "expected" to intensify?

I'm confused. :?:

LeeJet · #37 Postby **LeeJet** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 9:39 pm

Bailey1777 wrote:Lee that blowup is life substaining not strength. Chime in if you have an opinion.

My opinion is that thunderstorm blowups "tend" to mean a stronger storm, but then again, that's just my "opinion."

Furious George · #38 Postby **Furious George** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 9:39 pm

bayoubebe wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc06/ATL/05L.ERNESTO/tc_ssmis/composite/full/Latest.html

this is still a badly sheared system that is not intensifying at all. Just plodding along as expected

Are you saying that it is not "expected" to intensify?

I'm confused.

He didn't say that. He was just mentioning current conditions. Many pros believe after the next 24 hours or so, conditions will become more favorable.

#39 Postby **Bailey1777** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 9:40 pm

Fair enough.

#40 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 9:40 pm

Once again the center is north of the 5pm NHC forecasted track and looks to be moving more WNW now.

TS Ernesto #8 Sat pics, models, analysis thread

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