T.S Ernesto #10 Sat pics, analysis, models thread

[wxman57]

Here's a high resolution McIDAS image. I put the extrapolated NHC position on it (red "X"). NHC had the center at 15.1/71.2 at 10am moving at 12 kts. I moved it to 15.1N/71.4W (0.2 west). Note that the "center" is not near any convection. I don't really see a center there, in fact. At least, not at the surface. There MAY be a broad LLC north of that location. The MLC is in the red circle to the east, but I don't know that there is an LLC in there.

Could Ernesto have lost its LLC? We'll have to wait for the plane to get there to find out, but it doesn't look very healthy to me.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto37.gif

[JTD]

Ernie is looking pretty ragged towards end of loop..

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

Actually, I was just coming to post the same thing. Also, cloud tops are warming a great deal.

[Scorpion]

Anyone see the 12Z GFS? Apparently it takes Ernesto across Cuba and into Miami/Northern Keys.

[Brent]

Ernie is looking pretty ragged towards end of loop..

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

I don't know, I do agree he looks a bit ragged, but it quite possibly is just in a pulse down right now(remember yesterday at this time it looked bad too). It's also the middle of the day.

[HurricaneHunter914]

I'm just looking with my own eyes, look at link, make own interpretation...

I might be wrong it might look better than it did 4 hours ago

Well since its day time usually the convection tends to decrease and then increases overnight.

[Wx_Warrior]

agreed there shearing now that ULL will move west soon

[conestogo_flood]

In 13 minutes this thread achieved 2 pages...

[johngaltfla]

afm, what is your read on where this thing is headed late next week? saw you are not really buying into the model depiction of strength of trough. Thanks.

Mid-TX coast to NOLA....heavy emphasis on LA coast.

I think you've pegged it. I just don't see that trough digging this far south and moving the high pressure to the east...not this time of year, it's very rare...

[CocoCreek]

Ernie is looking pretty ragged towards end of loop..

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

Almost every single source I read says the shear is decreasing and its looking better.

By looking at the satellite loop, it seems like it might be reorganizing itself. All the visible turning, at least at the upper levels, is NE of the forecasted center position.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Anyone see the 12Z GFS? Apparently it takes Ernesto across Cuba and into Miami/Northern Keys.

wow. Now we know it is really insane.

[Scorpion]

Here's a high resolution McIDAS image. I put the extrapolated NHC position on it (red "X"). NHC had the center at 15.1/71.2 at 10am moving at 12 kts. I moved it to 15.1N/71.4W (0.2 west). Note that the "center" is not near any convection. I don't really see a center there, in fact. At least, not at the surface. There MAY be a broad LLC north of that location. The MLC is in the red circle to the east, but I don't know that there is an LLC in there.

Could Ernesto have lost its LLC? We'll have to wait for the plane to get there to find out, but it doesn't look very healthy to me.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto37.gif

Doesn't really make sense though... how would a steadily organizing and strengthening TC in lighter shear just lose its LLC?

[johngaltfla]

In 13 minutes this thread achieved 2 pages...

Just wait until it's bumped up to a hurricane then a Cat 3. 2 pages will seem like nothing...

[miamicanes177]

Could Ernesto have lost its LLC?

No, the NHC does not believe this will weaken at all and calls for intensification into a major hurricane. Also, Derek Ortt is calling for a 125kt cat 4 in the gulf.

[Wx_Warrior]

rare, but happens...

[Dallasis2hot]

In 13 minutes this thread achieved 2 pages...

2 more pages of the same conversations over and over again:
Shear / No Shear
Going to FL / Not going to FL

[HurricaneHunter914]

If Ernesto has lost its LLC, then the NHC will have to downgrade him to a disturbance right?

[Air Force Met]

Here's a high resolution McIDAS image. I put the extrapolated NHC position on it (red "X"). NHC had the center at 15.1/71.2 at 10am moving at 12 kts. I moved it to 15.1N/71.4W (0.2 west). Note that the "center" is not near any convection. I don't really see a center there, in fact. At least, not at the surface. There MAY be a broad LLC north of that location. The MLC is in the red circle to the east, but I don't know that there is an LLC in there.

Could Ernesto have lost its LLC? We'll have to wait for the plane to get there to find out, but it doesn't look very healthy to me.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto37.gif

Not with a 997Mb pressure he didn't. It ain't filling that fast my friend.

[conestogo_flood]

In 13 minutes this thread achieved 2 pages...

Just wait until it's bumped up to a hurricane then a Cat 3. 2 pages will seem like nothing...

At this current rate, in about 6 hours thread 11 will start.

[dwg71]

I'm just looking with my own eyes, look at link, make own interpretation...

I might be wrong it might look better than it did 4 hours ago

Well since its day time usually the convection tends to decrease and then increases overnight.

I'm not talking convection decrease, I'm talking about structure.. see wx57's post. He questions if there is a LLC. If your not calling for CAT 4 or 5, you bashed. Its obvious that ERNIE looks worse now then it has at any point in the past 12 hours.

[bucman1]

For what its worth, latest models continue to show shift east towars Panhandle-Tallahasee solution.