TS Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread XI (#11)

[Cape Verde]

I'm not buying any of this until Monday. Although, if Ernesto passes north of Jamaica instead of south of it tomorrow, that will be a strong indicator.

But until these models get a better handle on the storm, I'm not breathing more easily. Texas is out of the cone right now, and that means I can watch the NASCAR race tonight without having to check S2K every few minutes, but unless someone is willing to guarantee me that Texas will never be in Ernesto's cone again, I'll keep checking back.

[Buck]

Wow... Models are all over the place.

And poor Haiti... even getting brushed by this might mean mass deaths.

[gatorcane]

perhaps the models don't know how to handle a developing tropical system moving in tandem with a big TUTT low off to the west.....

Looks like that is the case.

[Toadstool]

Just off of skeetobyte, not alot of agreement of these models

I agree... weather has a long way to go to become a science. Hopefully someday we can understand how things work. I wonder if it's lack of funding or just complexity (perhaps both). If this were any other type of science, the advances would be staggering, but for weather (even with the advances in forecasting) it still is a bit of voodoo.

[Stratosphere747]

How many times. It is not a trend it is an extension of flawed models. WNW is WNW. Repositioning is not movement. There is still a ridge in place.

I disagree. Even Bevin said as much in the disco.

HOW
MUCH OF THIS IS DUE TO RE-FORMATION OF THE CENTER AND HOW MUCH IS
DUE TO AN ACTUAL TRACK CHANGE IS UNCLEAR.

[TheShrimper]

I posted this at noon, that the center seemed removed to the north and east of the forecast point designated by the NHC. It was clear as day, after looking at the visible loops. One pro met in particular was trying to convince everyone that the center was right where it should be in regards to the NHC track. The only one who didn't bite besides me was Wxman 57. Alot of wasted typing by that individual proclaiming Ernesto was right on target. Good try though.

[ConvergenceZone]

Ernesto starting to take hurricane Dvorak.

North of track now and stronger than expected.

Track now north of Jamaica.

Starting cautious concern for Florida.


Watch this keep moving right.

well, if it keeps moving right, that means it will be a fish...There's no reason to believe it will keep moving right. Just because they moved it right this time doesn't mean they will move it right the next time and the next time after that etc....no evidence for that.

[jlauderdal]

wow, fl west coast in cone, tx is not.

shh, dont tell ewg about texas, thanks

[Opal storm]

How many times. It is not a trend it is an extension of flawed models. WNW is WNW. Repositioning is not movement. There is still a ridge in place.

I have to agree.IMO there is no way this is going to turn back NE towards the peninsula.I think the official track will come back west once Ernesto gets back on a more steady WNW track.

[Sanibel]

Storm is well north. I suggest it will continue doing this.

(Message is ridge is weak)

[Stormcenter]

Just my opinion --

I think a landfall between Houma, LA and the Big Bend of FLA looks most likely.

I don't think it will go as far west as Houma, LA but maybe Mobile, AL. Anyway, this is still too early to call this far out, especially if Ernesto slows down or stalls.

[Bailey1777]

Please a pro-met reply. What direction is E. moving right now.

[Opal storm]

Storm is well north. I suggest it will continue doing this.

(Message is ridge is weak)

It has just relocated further north,it's still moving wnw.

[gatorcane]

looks like it is still gaining lattitude........not moving too much westerly.

[ConvergenceZone]

Storm is well north. I suggest it will continue doing this.

(Message is ridge is weak)

then a fish storm it will be...

[Brent]

Storm is well north. I suggest it will continue doing this.

(Message is ridge is weak)

then a fish storm it will be...

There are other landmasses besides the U.S.

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Just my opinion --

I think a landfall between Houma, LA and the Big Bend of FLA looks most likely.

I don't think it will go as far west as Houma, LA but maybe Mobile, AL. Anyway, this is still too early to call this far out, especially if Ernesto slows down or stalls.

That's why I still included SE LA, and the MGC.. it's still so far out and it could easily deviate westward.

And we all know how notorious the wobbles are.

[Toadstool]

Storm is well north. I suggest it will continue doing this.

(Message is ridge is weak)

then a fish storm it will be...

I hope you're right, but it's not really a fish storm with some of the carribean islands affected already. I would love to see it go out to sea, but I can't see that happening.

[PTrackerLA]

What a difference a day makes. We're just about out of the cone now. GREAT NEWS, although I don't feel totally safe yet.

[jhamps10]

Recon just found 51 Kt Flight level winds, at operational altitude.