Low in SW Caribbean?

[Portastorm]

Johnny, I appreciate your comments and agree with the "be careful what you wish for" sentiment. And yes I am a fisherman, too, and have seen how this summer's excessive heat and rainfall deficit has negatively impacted south central Texas fishin' holes!

I think Steve hit it on the head for me with his comments. It seems to me like the atmospheric parameters are in place that appear to discourage western Gulf development of tropical systems. Whether its influence of the ULs (or TUTTs), a weak El Nino, or whatever ... we are just not seeing anything of significance. Not that it is a bad thing, either!

I'm just going to be highly skeptical of any forecaster crowing about a Texas threat or western Gulf threat ... again ... until I see us in the NHC 3-day cone.

[Zardoz]

My God, look at the way that thing is spinning up now:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir2.html

What the hell...?

[Wx_Warrior]

With High P building north of it, IF, IF anything, which looks like nothing to my eye, would go due west.

Several things spin in the GOM.

[Portastorm]

Um ... so?

It's an upper low ... there's been plenty of those in the Gulf this summer.